OK the official mens distance summer of 2010 most impressive runner prediction thread!!!

I should have made it clear, in this order:

1 - Webb - Something big will come, prolly 5K

2 - Rupp - It'll be a combination of a sub 13 minute 5K and 27 10K

3 - Ritz - Perhaps ahead of Galen in the 10K but no 5K to match

4 - Lagat - He'll have a studly 5K, but not more than Webbs and no 2nd race like Galens

5 - Solinsky - The 10K may effort, PR in the 5K but well behind Webb and Lagat and short of Galens.

6 - Teg - He's been at it for so long and finally eeked out 12:58, not sure if he has another surprise coming, but who knows maybe a 10K![/quote]

Additionally, I should state that for me most impressive is not just by the ultimate time, but the context of where it came from. If Webb runs 12:53 for example that will be A LOT more impressive than if Lagat runs the same time for several reasons such as Lagat has been a sub 13:00 for several years now while not a 5K specialist and is obviously a faster lifetime 1500 and 3K runner and at that high level much more frequently than Webb ever has been. So that's how I rate my picks.

I wouldn't even be surpised to see Jager run 13:05 this year with all the momentum in Portland but it's just to hard to make the top 6 with the loads of talent up there. Anyway, it's just my wild predictions.

Yours?

Wheating!!! Did Wheating take a beating!!!???!!!

It'll be a big summer for sure and Webb has been quiet for so long and now has been watching all this guys he can kill at 5K and under doing big things. I think Webb rocks the Pre 5K.

Mr. Gusto wrote:

I hate to say it but I hope not, as great as it was it was a giant time trial perfectly rabbited effort...they'll actually be more exciting races

I love tactical championship racing, but, boy, you couldn't be more wrong. I was at the meet and the 10,000 was damn exciting. For most of the race it was watching how close to the target pace they were and seeing how long guys could hang on to the lead group. And since there were four racers tightly bunched behind the rabbits and all were looking good, no one really had any idea who was going to win. That's what I call a RACE. And when the second rabbit stepped off and Rupp sped up, that was exciting. And when Solinsky got on Rupp's shoulder and then went by it got really exciting, have you ever seen a guy go from running 66 second laps for 23 laps and then accelerate to 58 second laps? Believe me, it was exciting. Then the questions were, could Solinsky hold it? Could Rupp respond and get Solinsky with a kick if Solinsky faltered? By the time it became absolutely clear that Solinsky was going to win, with about 300 meters to go, the question became, "could Solinksy break 27" and with 100 meters to you knew he had a chance, but...And then he did break 27!!!! It was as exciting as any event I've seen live, and I've seen championships in every major sport. So please don't disparage what was an amazing race.

Really it wasn't an amazing race. It was an amazing feat, but not an amazing race. For 9100 meters it was watch Rupp, and then his coach said "go".

Amazing feat absolutely, not amazing race. Amazing race would have been go to the lead when Rupp was leading. Then people would have been like, "what the hell is Solinsky doing in the lead?" Then Rupp would have had a little break and a chance to plan a kick and get some adrenaline going rather than the dread that he was surely experiencing being stalked until the last 2 laps of a 25 lap race. I still think Solinsky would have won Saturday night, but we'd certainly have had more of an exciting finish and perhaps both would have been under or Solinsky goes a second or two faster and Rupp hits 27:02 or so.

That would have been a thrilling race. What happened was a thrilling feat of athleticism, but far different from a thrilling race. The next time these two race I predict it will be more thrilling because it will actually involve more racing and less sitting and kicking.

Everyone who doesn't like when Rupp sits and kicks is right that it is not exciting, but granted in championship races that is what you do, make sure you win. The best races are races that go fast, the lead changes and you still have contenders in it coming to the end. This could have been one, but it really wasn't.

The two things that I thought were amazing was Rupp being able to lead a group like that on that pace, and Solinsky being able to run under 27:00 with a ferocious close. The "race" itself was not amazing, but the athletic feats were. A bit like Webbs AR in the mile.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree - I'm going to stand by my statement that having four guys in the mix with just a bit more than two laps to go is a RACE.

What I dont' understand from you guys who are saying it was not a race is that tactical races are often sit and kick affairs . Occasionally, the Kenyan or Ethioopian teams will throw use some surges to break things up or throw others off their game, but for the most part, the guy who wins is sitting on the leader and wins it in a sprint. Saturday's 10,000 was a race.

Well, now that you have made the criteria less clear than in your original post I'm not really sure what to go on.

Nonetheless I'll hazard a few things maybe a bit different than your list.

Fernandez may well get healthy and do some amazing things but he just isn't in the same league as these guys yet. I would not put him as a dark horse because it is not just unlikely that he'll end up the most impressive runner, it is impossible.

Same goes for Jager.

Wheating is a legitimate darkhorse but I would add Hall and Symmonds along with him as possible US distance runner of the year. Actually come to think of it Webb really has to be listed as a dark horse. Super talented obviously but it's been awhile so ROTY has to be considered so improbable as to relegate him to darkhorse status.

Remainders in order:

1) Lagat - He is still the best American distance runner

2) Solinsky - Bird in the hand

3) Ritz - Until two days ago Ritz would likely have been the runaway favorite in a LRC poll

4) Rupp - He just keeps getting better and better

5) Teg - It is hard to put him this low given that he has come the closest (among non-Lagatians) to being a factor in WC racing and he is coming off a great year but...well I guess it is just a good time for American distance racing when one can speculate that Teg, seemingly at his best, may only rank #5 or #6.

Oh, and I forgot Meb. I'd put him behind Ritz and before Rupp

1) Lagat

2) Solinsky

3) Ritz

4) Meb

5) Rupp

6) Teg

Webb- Does not have the base for a good 5k

Rupp- Always good, but we pretty much know what to expect from him

Ritz- Could deliver a GREAT marathon and 10k

Lagat- only chance is an AR 5k. Others will probably be just as impressive.

Teg-Since he don't run no 10k, he will impress no one any more than last year.

#! Ritz

#2 Lagat

Webb running a competitive time at any distance would be the biggest surprise of the summer. I'm a hater until he proves me wrong.

DAN HULING

keepitup wrote:

Webb running a competitive time at any distance would be the biggest surprise of the summer. I'm a hater until he proves me wrong.

That's not hating dude. Real hating is unconditional!

Look out for David Torrence in the 1500.

'Will Solinkys be it? I hate to say it but I hope not, as great as it was it was a giant time trial perfectly rabbited effort. For me I'm hoping it comes from a more difficult race in Europe or perhaps PRE or the US championships. Something beyond, sitting, sitting, sitting, and kicking. I think we could have several sub 13 and sub 27 efforts to come this summer and they'll actually be more exciting races.'

Yeah, I bet he's crying in his cereals this morning

Moron

Moron of the Week wrote:

'Will Solinkys be it? I hate to say it but I hope not, as great as it was it was a giant time trial perfectly rabbited effort. For me I'm hoping it comes from a more difficult race in Europe or perhaps PRE or the US championships. Something beyond, sitting, sitting, sitting, and kicking. I think we could have several sub 13 and sub 27 efforts to come this summer and they'll actually be more exciting races.'

Yeah, I bet he's crying in his cereals this morning

Moron

I forget that some of you haven't been around very long and this might be the best race you've ever seen. Of course a lot of peoples memories are just very short.

It's okay to be an amazing race and still not be the best race of even this summer. PRE could very well upstage this in many ways. So could races in Europe.

I think most people are getting hung up on the barrier, be interesting if more people realized that 27 is a bit softer than they thought, but they probably won't change that view until an American hits 26:50.

When a 13:12 5K specialist runs under 27 minutes, well that tells you what 27 minutes means. It's the 13:05 of 5K but only because we haven't had any talented runners going to Europe for 10K's we don't think this.

Kennedy could have done it in his prime. Rupp, Ritz, Teg (yes he can) and obviously Solinsky all can. And the best will be aiming for 26:50 like they should be.

Could Nike set up an assault again in Eugene this summer? Wouldn't surprise me.

Mr. Gusto wrote:

predict who will stand out with the biggest and best performance of the year this year?

I will be surprising me myself and many others!

(How can you put some distant elites before your own performances?!?)

Tony Krupicka won the Miwok 100k last weekend. Second fastest time in history (I think). This is my vote.