| Old Runner Guy |
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Floyd Released a ton of documents this morning on his website. Their are 370 pages worth. He also released a 25 page Powerpoint Slide show. You can find the Slide Show with some Commentary above it here: http://trustbut.blogspot.com/2006/10/slide-show.html Summary/Highlights (Comments are from the link above) Slide2 Says there are four main ways the testing produced an erroneous result. Sample error, contamination, unreliable tests, failure to meet positive criteria. comment: "Doesn't make sense" won't come into the factual resolution, as the strict liability standard for doping doesn't care whether it makes sense, only that the wrong things were present in his body. Slide 3 Explains some sample labelling problems that are being offered to show general lapses in the lab proceses. They aren't claiming the samples aren't his, but that errors are made in the simplest parts of the paperwork. comment: This is a supporting argument, but doesn't relate to critical facts. It is asking the viewer to imply that because some small things were done incorrectly, there is a liklihood that big things are done wrong as well. This whole line of reasoning doesn't affect factual determination, but it does affect the general credibility of the lab. That Landis is not using this as a critical point indicates he does not want to be seen as quibbling about minor technicalities. Slide 5 shows that on the A Sample result page, this wasn't followed for the sample number! It was done with whiteout and an overwrite. Notes, this isn't being offered to say the results were for the wrong sample, just that the lab doesn't do things correctly. Slide 6 repeats the point, showing either an error or an ambiguity with a transportation record. Again, not show to say it didn't end up being his sample, but that record keeping is lax. Slide 7 shows another sample number error, on a result summary sheet, previously known to TBV as one of the Ferret pages. The slide also notes that Landis should not have received any data about other samples. This is a lab data handling failure. comment: While the lab was being complete in the documentation, it should probably have redacted all data about other samples. This should have no bearing on the factual decision about the case. Slide 9 shows the WADA criteria for determining that a sample has been contaminated, and should not be used for measurements. Slide 10 argues the Landis A sample exceeded that standard. It should have been seen as having been contaminated, and testing stopped, period. comment: It is not clear where the justification for the 5% rule in the WADA protocol comes from. This is a solid argument that would need to be refuted by the USADA side.The ADA side may try to wave hands and say it doesn't matter in this case. It would help for Landis to have some science to show how contamination affects the results of the tests. Slide 11 shows the same values on the B sample, .44 and 5.7, indicating the same level of contamination or degradation as present in the A sample. comment: No hiding for the ADA side, same problem on both samples. Slide 13 shows a large variation in the same test on the same sample further emphasizing lack of repeatability. comment: These may be comparing screening tests with more accurate confirmation tests. The screening tests are known to be inaccurate, which is why the confirming tests are done. This kind of inconsistency may not seem like a problem to technical reviewers. Slide 16 Shows more inconsistently reported values for the T and E measurements. Slide 19 Presents an interpretation of the CIR criteria it wants us to believe. comment: Asking for 3.8 because of .8 tolerance is questionable, because the 3.0 was set with knowledge there were tolerances. However, we don't know what the tolerance was for the 3.0 standard. Slide 20 Claims that all four metabolites tested must have CIR > threshold to be found positive, and Landis only had one of the four. comment: This is where things get controversial. The protocol is ambiguously worded about how many metabolites must be over the threshold to result in a positive test. Landis argues that the ambiguity must be read as "all", while the lab believes "any" is sufficient. There isn't documented precedent, and it is not clear that all labs use the same criteria. Further, the slide pushes the threshold value to the absolute extreme; the value in the protocol is 3%, and does not include tolerances. The slide adds a maximum error tolerance of 0.8% to get the 3.8%, but that might not be an acceptable interpretation. Certainly if a reported value were way over 3.8% it would be a clear violation. In the middle ground either interpretation could probably be accepted, depending on your prejudice. Slide 21 shows result report with the four observed values, and says that one of four does not make a positive. The values in the underlying table are comment: This is the key argument for the case. At face value, two of the four metabolites are positive, but not all four. If we evaluate the tolerances as Baker claims (3.8), we get the conclusion of the slide set, only one of four; if we take them the other way (add 0.8), we get three of four. In the summary of the filing, there is reference to "the best" metabolite, which is the 5bA-5bP. With the nominal reading, this is negative. With a reading against him, it becomes positive. If we accept the "all must be over threshold argument", this positive finding is in trouble by any interpretation of the tolerances. The summary of the filing also indicates that the one clear positive, presumably the 5aA-5bP, has some obvious error, calling it and possibly the other readings into question. Slide 22 observes that the reported absolute level of Testosterone was not elevated. Values considered "high" are five times those observed. comment: This validates Landis' early statements that his T was not high, but that his E was low. It also shows every media report that he says "elevated testosterone" has been and is incorrect. Slide 23 says that the lab tests were not correctly blinded, because the cortisone exemption was clearly in the sample materials. comment: Depending on how/where this information was visible inside the lab, it may or may not identify whether operators knew the identity of a particular vial. Slide 24 Notes the review board may have had a pre-ordained conclusion because its finding appeared to have been drafted before the tele-conference that was to review the material. comment: This doesn't affect anything, but it should be embarassing to the ADRB. |
| Old Runner Guy |
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My comments The most surprising aspect is the appealling sloppiness of this Lab. This from the same Lab that botch Armstrong's 1999 test last year. At the very least, WADA should consider de-commissioning or overhauling this lab. Even if Landis is guilty, to have this many errors in a high profile case is just unacceptable. If this is how a FRENCH lab treats the TdF, one wonders how sloppy they are with an IAAF meet? I had no idea that WADA rules were this vague with respect to the CIR test. The test looks at the sample vis fourth methods. Either one or two of those methods were positive in Landis' case (depending on how you interpret the error rate). But do the rules say all must be postive or any. If any, then how do you explain that some methods say their wasn't any syn T in his system. Lastly, what was new to me was the fact THAT THE TEST MAY NOT HAVE BEEN BLIND! Say again, THE TESTERS COULD HAVE KNOWN IT WAS LANDIS' SAMPLE!! His cortisone TUE was clearly marked in his paperwork and any Lab tech that read it, and was paying attention to the TdF could have easily figured out it was Landis' sample. This is a BIG no no. And the "French hate the Americans" crowd now have something to crow about. --- As i've argue many times, I'd like to believe that Landis is inncoent. These documents show his case is not so clear cut. Even if Landis loses, he's release should make anyone/everyone question the entire process of drug testing. Athletes careers are hanging on the handwriting ability of Lab techs, their in ability to keep proper documentation and vague rules. This release is not good for the "get drugs out of sports crowd." Frankly, the procedures suck and need to be changed. |
| epocheatsout |
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i believe slide 25 is missing from that presentation. It's the one where he asks a girl out, reportedly. |
| MarathonMind |
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Shouldn't all this info simply be communicated between Landis/his lawyers and the authorities/their lawyers? Seems to me Landis is trying more to score a win in the court of public opinion, rather than the legal one. |
| bmc pool strikes back |
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you could say the same thing about Dick Pound who has come out and made some ludicrous statements about Landis and other people who have results leaked before the "B" test. They certainly are running a campaign through the media, so why can't Landis do the same in his defense? |
| n* Sh*t sherlock |
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wouldn't you try to score a win in the court of public opinion if you've already been tried and convicted in it? |
| pee wee |
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This reminds me of the presentation Pee Wee Herman made to the bmx gang in order to find his bike during his "Big Adventure". Maybe LLoyd Flandis' credibility is in the basement of the Alamo. Right next to Ozzy Osbournes unrine sample. |
| Pete |
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That seems like fair ball to me. The opposing side screwed him over (guilty or not) and convicted him in the court of public opinion by leaking the result of the A sample. In the end, whether he stays officially "guilty" or not, it's equally (or MORE) important whether the public still holds him accountable. |
| Phil. |
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Well considering all the TV shows and newspapers that said he had a high level of testosterone I'd think he's entitled to refute that! As I recall the way that breathalysers work in a court of law the number reported is the measured value minus 3 times the standard error of the instrument. That way statistically there's a 95% chance that the limit was exceeded. If the quoted error is the standard error then the same approach would require 2.4 to be subtracted from the measurement not 0.8. |
| Old Runner Guy |
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Interesting Explanation of Landis's defense http://www.dailypelotonforums.com/main/index.php?showtopic=1522&st=20 Um yes. First post here, (started lurking when I heard Floyd was here, and have very much enjoyed the discussion--thank you for letting me lose a couple nights' sleep!). I will admit to being relatively experienced with analysis of clinical data (work in clinical research for drug companies), but inexperienced with the specifics of testosterone metabolism (know a lot of statistics, some biology). That said, you would want to see consistent results for both the epitestosterone and the testosterone, and a conculusive result for the ratio. So what makes a result conclusive? In the pharmceutical industry where you are looking for clear differences among treatments, you typically need to be 95% certain that the observed result could not occur by chance (reject the null hypothesis); ergo must have occured because of a difference caused by the treatment. Here, to establish that Floyd took testosterone we want to be very sure (95% certain seems about right) that the results we are observing did not occur by chance, i.e. that he likely needed to take some form of testosterone to achieve these levels. To restate another way, we want to reject the notion that his T:E ration is less than 4 with 95% certainty. Now, normally when we are trying to make this sort of argument, we take a reasonably large number of measurements and make some assumptions about the statistical distribution of the measurements, i.e. that they exhibit a gaussian (normal or bell-shaped) and do a particular statistical test on the data (our famous t-test). Here that doesn't really work, since there are only 3 measurements of epi levels and 3 of testosterone. Alternatively, since they are all, supposedly, independent measures of the same thing, I should be able to take any of the epi measurements and put it with any of the testosterone measurements and reach more or less the same conclusion (if the test were to be conclusive). Since there are 3 of each kind of measurement, I have a total of 9 possible combinations. If just 1 of the 9 combinations results in a T:E ratio less than 4, then I am not 95% certain that the T:E ratio is >4 (specifically I am no more than 8/9 or 89% sure). So let's see how that works out (I'm using your numbers for the moment, since I don't know where the 172/18 value comes from--although that would make this even juicier). 1) T=50 E=12 T/E=4.2 2) T=50 E=14 T/E=3.6 3) T=50 E=4 T/E=12.5 4) T=61 E=12 T/E=5.1 5) T=61 E=14 T/E=4.4 6) T=61 E=4 T/E=15.2 7) T=65 E=12 T/E=5.4 8) T=65 E=14 T/E=4.6 9) T=65 E=4 T/E=16.5 Note that case number 2 results in a value of 3.6, which is less than the magic 4.0, ergo I am less than 95% sure that Floyd's T/E is > 4. Note that if I throw in the additional measurement of 172/18 in there (again, these are supposedly independent measurements of the same quantity), I have 16 combinations, and because of the 18 value for epi, I will have a total of 4 combinations (or 25%) that have T/E ratios < 4. In statistical parlance, this would be a p-value of 0.25, and it is NOT significant by a long shot (I believe "roostered up" is the preferred term). This just suggests that the T/E ratio is much less certain than it needs to be in order to be credible. The contamination issue gives us a fairly plausible reason why the results might be as they are; i.e. the contaminating bacteria create conditions where epi is preferentially removed relative to testosterone. I will curious to hear the more biologically inclined comment on this aspect. |
| Old Runner Guy |
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Also, here is a copy of his ADRB filing and an analysis of it http://trustbut.blogspot.com/2006/10/adrb-filing.html It says a lot of the same things as PowerPoint Presentation above. |
| not a joke |
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landis doesn't have to win ME over in the court of public opinion. why? cuz i never convicted him. i know that he and his fellow cyclists all dope and i'm ok with it. it's the nature of the sport to do what they do. what i'm NOT okay with is this charade played by organizations such as wada and characters such as dick pound acting as if they;re going to clean up the sport by singling out one or two guys at a time. it's a CHARADE. legalise it. |
| footballer |
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Cycling is no dirtier than any other sport, it's just that the anti-doping authorities decide to announce positive results no matter how inconvenient the timing is. Would USATF announce a positive test at the US championships or Oly trials? No way, they would sweep it under the rug a la Carl Lewis and Flo Jo. Why risk a scandal on the level of the '98 Festina affair, Pantani out of the Giro in '99 for elevated hematocrit, Operation Puerto and now Landis? It would only damage the sport, so its better to cover it up. Barry Bonds would not even be in the clubhouse if the MLB adhered to the same policies as the UCI and Pro Tour teams. If other major sports did half of what cycling does to combat doping their reputation would be just as tarnished. |
| Old Runner Guy |
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Landis agrees with you. He's been active on the Daily Peleton Forum http://www.dailypelotonforums.com/main/index.php?showtopic=1458&st=480# Floyd wrote .... Because cycling is an Olympic sport, while the Olympics does very little for cycling, we are subject to WADA. The problem comes from the fact that mutualy, cycling and the olympics do very little for each other. Therefore it is the perfect whipping boy for Dick Pound who makes it clear that he cares very little about the reputation of the sport and because it is big enough to get publicity but not wealthy enough to make him go away, he makes it one of a few which he would destroy for his agenda. Furthermore to that end, he and WADA have no financial interest in the sport progressing, so why be reasonable, since the more positive tests they can produce (at any cost) the more credibility they gain. The sport needs to leave the Olympics if it will ever become self governed and make wise business decisions from every aspect, not doping alone. ---- Question, If WADA wins, Landis is guilty, his arguments are meaningless, he's a cheat, go away. Dick Pound is right and his quest to destroy cycling is justify. (can anyone argue that he is not trying to destroy cycling?) What does he do next? He moves up the food chain and starts destoying Track & Field next. When does he stop? When he gets what he wants, to be chairman of the IOC -- the king of sports, and all the power and trappings of the title of the President of the IOC. He gets to meet with Presidents and Kings and everyone hushes when King Dick speaks of the subject of sports. He's shuttled around in a private jet and has a staff of thousands. So either you agree with Pound's goal and would mind him destoying Track for the larger goal of cleaning up sports, or you see him as a problem. |
| hardset nipples |
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Even at the junior and high school levels? |
| Old Runner Guy |
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The Anti-doping Agencies are suppose to at least PRETEND to be objective and unbiased. So explain this comment? http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/cycling/news/story?id=2622445 Philippe Dautry, general secretary of France's anti-doping agency, "We only have some vague noises about the arguments from Landis and his attorney. All this is part of an ongoing disciplinary procedure, during which all the elements must be examined." ---- "Vague Noises" French arrogance on display. You're suppose to say sonething to the effect of ... "We take all accusations of sloppy record keeping and violation of protocols seriously. Our goal is to have the finest testing procedures in the world. We will (or have) look into all of Mr. Landis charges and are confident we will find that no such violation of protocol have occurred." This is just another blow to their credibility. And this doesn't help either. ---- French Olympic Committee Head Convicted http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory?id=2557842 PARIS Oct 12, 2006 (AP)— A criminal court convicted the president of the French Olympic Committee on corruption charges Thursday, giving him a three-month suspended sentence. Henri Serandour, also a member of the International Olympic Committee, was accused of giving two lucrative jobs to a communications company that had hired his wife, former swimmer Catherine Poirot. Serandour, 69, could be suspended by the IOC following the verdict. ---- If the French are not careful, and Landis gets off, next year the Dicovery team could field a Tdf team of EPO crazed cyclists with resting heart rates of 10 bpm and the French anti-doping agency will not have the credibilty or standing to accuse them of doping. |