rekrunner wrote:
I'm not sure what "logical progression" means, exactly. I don't think it's a question of logic. You might say "mathematical progression", but I think we lack enough data to make a 50 year prediction. Nevertheless, the best (let's be diplomatic) word I can find to describe your predictions is bold.
I don't believe there's any foundation for debate, so I won't attempt to conclude what times are realistic, leaving that subject to mathematicians and dreamers.
Besides a few outliers like Nostradamus, no one can reliably predict, with any degree of confidence, what 50 years will look like.
In the last 50 years, a lot of the improvement comes from non-human sources, like the track, and lightweight spikes, and compression socks, and breathe right strips. Maybe there are more "legal" advancements to come, like caffeine patches, or air-conditioned clothes, which will give us new edges.
I don't have a problem believing times will come down. It's just hard for me to believe that you hold some kind of handle on a mathematical calculation that can accurately quantify the time improvements over the next 50 years.
All we can say, is time will tell.
When I say logical progression, I am refering to the potential for a runner to improve the quality of training and racing without increasing the phsyical and mental stress.
For example such training sessions as 20x200m with short recoveries where each 200 is run faster and with a rolling start. For a distance runner the average time in seconds for those 200's will be close to the potential time in minutes for 10000m if the runner can do longer reps at a good pace also.
So a decent American distance runner could start at 28 seconds and get quicker, averaging under 27. He could then do 20x400 in an average 57 etc etc.
The important thing is to improve pace progressively to get the best average pace.
This simple training philosophy, which has been around forever, can be extended more and more as time goes by. We can store enough glycogen to do these sessions without to much stress, but you have to want to apply yourself to the task in gradually improving steps, and keep the focus to get the results. A very ambitious runner also needs a very smart coach, and that combination is probably an extreme rarity.