MARY KEITANY: can she take down Paula's Legendary 2:15:25 WR

In the marathon it shouldn't matter if its an all women's race or open field. You see it all the time men drafting behind other runners or competitors (not rabbits) sharing water bottles. So why would it matter if a female athelte gets the same treatment during her race?

In my opinion Mary Keitany does have the neccessary talent to break Paula Radcliffe WR but it will take a couple years of experience at the marathon and then Mary having THE PERFECT race.

DontFeedTheTroll wrote:

douglas burke wrote:

some consider the 2:17.42 the world record, because it was in a all womens race

It's only relatively recently that some marathons have created separate starts for men and women. Prior to that, I must assume, the records were not set in "all women's races". Was Joan Benoit's Boston WR set in an "all women's race"?

Except until recently the mixed races weren't excuses for using people faster than you to pace world records. Having a 2:14 guy pace you for 2:15 is like if Geb used two 60 half guys in sequence to run 2:02. It isn't fair, because the pacing is outside what would be record-acceptable in any other racing format.

isaac macharia wrote:

She has all it takes to break Paula RecordlMarathon running has changed alot,track runners have no place in marathons.Fast marathoners are young flesh athletes,not them that retire from track

Is this the real Isaac Macharia?

I would agree with except the fact that rabbits are used in all the big races now. That being the case, the first woman AND the first man will have help....Her half marathon isn't much faster than Paula's average for two halfs so i don't see it happening.

Don't know the point you were making with your scenario. The women should have the option of using a male to pace them in the marathon. Over the past two - ten years there have been so many course record and world record attempts in which the rabbit runs 25-35km. So because the elite women marathoners have trouble finding women to pace them that long they shouldn't be punish by having males to pace them.

To the individual who said Paula Radcliffe marathon 2:15:25 is worth a 1:04.?? 1/2 marathon and a women would have to run that to have a shot a the marathon WR. NO THEY Don't (roflmao) Plllleeeaassssee that doesn't even warrant a detailed response.

Avocados Number wrote:

I don't know which marathon Keitany is debuting at.

She made her debut at Amsterdam in 2000.

2. Mary Keitany (KEN) 2:32:04

Radcliffe's world record is completely on a different level from Keitany's performances to date.

McMillan calculator has the Marathon wr equivalent to 1:04:13 half marathon, not to mention 28:51 10k, 4:00 mile, 1:48.5 800m and 49.4 400m!

Event 100m 200m 400m 500m 800m 1000m 1500m Mile 2000m 3000m 2M 4000m 3M 5000m

Time 11.8 23.6 49.4 1:04.4 1:48.5 2:21.8 3:43.4 4:00.6 5:05.0 7:57.9 8:33.4 10:53.0 13:23 13:53

Pace/Mile -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4:05.4 4:16.4 4:16.7 4:22.7 4:28 4:28

Pace/K -- -- -- -- -- -- 2:29.0 2:29.5 2:32.5 2:39.3 2:39.5 2:43.2 2:46 2:47

Event 4M 8000m 5M 10K 15K 10M 20K 13.1M 15M 25K 30K 20M 25M Marathon

Time 18:10 22:54 23:01 28:51 44:43 48:21 1:00:51 1:04:13 1:14:03 1:17:18 1:34:01 1:41:40 2:08:10 2:15:25

Pace/Mile 4:33 4:36 4:36 4:38 4:48 4:50 4:54 4:54 4:56 4:59 5:03 5:05 5:07 5:10

Pace/K 2:50 2:52 2:52 2:53 2:59 3:00 3:03 3:03 3:04 3:06 3:08 3:10 3:11 3:13

Rene the Cart wrote:

Except until recently the mixed races weren't excuses for using people faster than you to pace world records.

Wrong. Also demonstrating a tremendous ignorance of history.

I think the point is that if you are a man and you are going to set a world record, you will have to be faster than your "rabbit." But the women can have a faster runner pace them all the way to the line.

In the end the whole concept of having world records for just women or just deaf people or old people or any other sub-group of the human species is a little silly. All you're really saying is, "I'm the fastest in the world except for all the people not allowed to enter my race." That's all well and good for the competitors in these exclusive clubs, but why the rest of the world is supposed to care is a little mysterious.

I understand Paula Radcliffe marathon WR is incredible that's why I call it Legendary. The table you use is useless if you think Paula or any other women can run those time from 800m to 1/2 marathon- not even Paula can come close to any of those times. Yet she still ran the equivalent in the marathon; therefore, Mary Keitany don't need to hit any of those performance to have a shot at the marathon WR in the future.

If you go look at Mary Keitany personal best she too gets better the longer the race. Although she could if she desired go back and improve all of her pb from 1500m to 10000m because they are just that soft. All of her road personal best still indicate the longer the distance the better and more astounishing Mary Keitany will run!

NOTE: the Mary Keitany who ran 2:32 is not the same Mary who will debut in the marathon this fall! Several Kenyans athletes have the same name.

Yes, they really need to get some more names in Kenya. There are so many cases of runners who have the same name as other runners. When was the last time we had this problem in the usa or eu even with 20 times the population? Heck, even the chinese manage to mix it up enough.

small wrote:

Rene the Cart wrote:

Except until recently the mixed races weren't excuses for using people faster than you to pace world records.

Wrong. Also demonstrating a tremendous ignorance of history.

Perhaps you have greater knowledge of history than some of the rest of us do, but I'm inclined to think that Rene the Cart is essentially correct. During the 1980s, the use of male pacers for elite female runners was widely considered to be cheating. In fact, when Joanie won Boston in 1983, there was considerable controversy about the fact that Kevin Ryan was running close to her for much of the race, and Joanie was accused of being improperly aided through the use of a male pacer. She denied it, said that she had no arrangement with Ryan, and went on to state that she found Ryan's presence to be annoying. (I believed her, and still do.)

Beginning about ten or twelve years ago, the Berlin marathon showed what race organizers were willing to do to garner world records with the use of male windbreaks (or "pacesetters") for female runners. Takahashi's "world record" at Berlin in 2001 was greatly aided by the use of male windbreaks. In 2003, London pushed the concept to its next level of absurdity, by redefining a women-only race as a mixed race for the sole purpose of using male "pacesetters" to assist women to faster times than what they could achieve on their own.

I don't approve of the use of human or nonhuman windbreaks or pacesetters at all, but it's difficult to patrol their use, so that battle has probably been lost as long as people care more about times than about head-to-head competition. But the use of male windbreaks or pacesetters for female runners is relatively easy to patrol at the top level. It's not tolerated in track, and I'd like to see it prohibited in road-racing as well.

rsbones wrote:

Yes, they really need to get some more names in Kenya. There are so many cases of runners who have the same name as other runners. When was the last time we had this problem in the usa or eu even with 20 times the population? Heck, even the chinese manage to mix it up enough.

well just a couple of months ago in the 2010 boston marathon there was 2 ryan hall's both from the USA.

and in the 2009 it was even more confusing as there were 3 ryan hall's in the race.

when i went to the boston marathon website i wanted to track ryan hall's splits and there were 2 ryan hall's this year and 3 last year.

rsbones wrote:

I think the point is that if you are a man and you are going to set a world record, you will have to be faster than your "rabbit." But the women can have a faster runner pace them all the way to the line.

In the end the whole concept of having world records for just women or just deaf people or old people or any other sub-group of the human species is a little silly. All you're really saying is, "I'm the fastest in the world except for all the people not allowed to enter my race." That's all well and good for the competitors in these exclusive clubs, but why the rest of the world is supposed to care is a little mysterious.

post of the year!

i'm afraid this 25k brings her no way close tp 2"15

using :

http://www.jundo.co.uk/

with 1"19'53 & likely current 1/2M ability of 66'00 - 66'30 :

66'00 ->2"23'33

66'15 ->2"22'01

66'30 ->2"20'28

this 25k doesn't even indicate breaking 2"20...

the men's time of 1"11'50 is better quality

1"11'50 with say 59'30 - 60'15 :

59'30 ->2"08'09

59'45 ->2"06'37

60'00 ->2"05'04

60'15 ->2"03'32

i'd expect the guy to have 2"05/2"06 potential currently

Agreed. There should be only one set of world records - for the fastest human performances - and all races should be open with prize money given out according to finishing position. In this way a woman runing 2h 18 in marathon should be given exactly the same amount of prize money as a man running 2h 18.

This is the way it is in the real world. Can you imagine if Hilary Clinton had been elected to be president that it would be fine for her to perform 10% worse in her duties just because she was a woman? That is the joke that you currently have in athletics.

I watched Paula, (on television) with featured her for most of the race and came to the conclusion that the decision to provide her with a couple of male pacemakers on the day was one of the daftest, (amongst many) decisions ever made by the London organisers.

If fact, I surmised before the race, that the presence of male pacemakers in a woman’s race would taint any record for all time.

In the race itself, quite naturally considering the uniqueness of the circumstances, both Paula and the pacemakers seemed a bit bewildered as to their respective roles.

In fact, many times, Paula, who much prefers being out front on her own, often appeared irritated and at times, even had her steady pacing disrupted by the pacemakers erratic running and constant changing of positions on the road.

I notice there was even a panic by the organisers at the time, when it appeared the pacemakers were about to sprint home in front, spoiling Paula’s crowning moment!

My impression on the day was that Paula was in such incredible condition at that time and had so much confidence in her ability to run all out for 26 miles - that had they left her to run the race on her own, she’d have still run 2.15 - and dare one think it? - even faster?

I need to explain something about Mary Keitany.

a) I'm not the coach of Mary. I'm the supervisor of her programs, that are prepared by my friend Gabriele Nicola, young Italian working with me from longer than 10 years. I followed Mary during the last period (from 6th of April) because Gabriele was not in Kenya, and I arranged some workout changing little things only, how we normally do approaching an important competition.

b) There is confusion (in Tilastopaja too) between Mary Keitany and Mary Ptikani. Mary Keitany NEVER ran any marathon. The project is to debut or in Chicago or in New York. Speaking now about what she can do, using some mathematic calculation, is like to speak about fried air.

Every type of calculation is useless, because :

1- Also if two athletes have the same performance in one event, looking at another distance the result probably is not the same, because their SPECIFIC individual attitudes are different. For every distance, we have two typologies of athletes : the FAST (for example, speaking about Marathon, athletes very fast in 10000m) and the RESISTANT (athletes starting from long run, without previous experiences in short distances). The athletes of the first category can have more talent if show the possibility of physiological and mental adaptation (not alòways this can happen). If don't show this adaptation, NEVER they can become good marathon runners.

The athletes of the second category, NEVER can become top champions, but for them is easier to become GOOD marathon runners.

2- The type of training for the two different typologies must be different. In the case of FAST runners, we must look for EXTENDING the Aerobic Power (that is very high) having the goal to REDUCE the consumption of fuel "super" (glycogen) in order to be able to last longer. In the case of RESISTENT runners, we must look for QUALIFYING the speed of long run, trying to increase the POWER of their engine, because the limit is the long speed.

3- The reason because in 2010 it's difficult to find marathon runners (women) able to run really fast (25 years ago we had Ingrid Kristiansen and Joan Benoit at 2:21...) is that, at that time, all the athletes were specialists of short distances on track, because the Marathon for women was at the beginning only, and there were not real specialists. For example, Ingrid Kristiansen was only a good specialist (but not a top runner) on track for the LONGEST distance at that time : 3000m. She moved to Marathon when the event became interesting under the economic point of view, but, for top Championships, looked for 15 km on roads, winning the title in 1987 and 1988, because there were not 5000 and 10000m on track, neither HM. When (in 1986) for the first time, women had officially 10000m on track (European Championships in Stuttgart), Ingrid decided to prepare essentially that event, and was no more able to run a full marathon fast like before.

Paula Radcliffe is the typical example of FAST runner, while Takahashi is the example of RESISTENT runner.

4- Another reason because today it's difficult for a women running under 2:20 is that there are a lot of Marathon with very high prizes / time bonuses, and the most part of athletes can win a lot of money in short time, also without a real technical project. This is expecially the case of many Ethiopians, product of an ambience of runners more than of a technical plan. The Ethiopians are still very young, and usually run in 2-3 years a lot of competitions, being hungry of money. The most part of managers don't care about the duration of their career, because for them it's very easy to replace a burnt athlete with another (look at the seasonal list, how many Ethiopians there are already under 2:30).

5- What we have to try to do with Mary, is to create a plan for lasting several years. So, it's a mistake to rush too much : we have to create the BASE for running marathon at top level, and for lasting. It's clear that an athlete like Mary can look for a time of 2:18 in her career (really the 2:15 of Paula looks far from the possibility of other specialist of today : don't forget Paula had 8'22" in 3000m...), but this is the plan for 2012. The advantage is that, for her mentality, she WANTS to have a technical project, not looking at money in short time. At the end of every thing, it's the brain that makes the difference