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Stanford Cardinal Invite Preview: Women's 10k, Men's 1500 Highlight This Sunday is Stanford's Payton Jordan Cardinal Invite. The meet is most known for its Kim McDonald 10,000m races (home of the men's and women's American records). The meet almost always has perfect time trial conditions, so it's always full of top name athletes running for free hoping to achieve Olympic qualifying performances. This year's meet is no different.
Update: The meet may be streamed by on flocasts.org. They say they're streaming it but Stanford told us no one would be allowed to stream it when we asked to stream it live ourselves. And the official meet preview mentions Runnerspace.com covering the meet. So check flocasts Sunday night or flocasts or runnerspace Monday morning for taped videos. Women's 10,000m the Marquee Event This Year Kara Goucher may have gotten the bronze medal last year at World's at 10,000m, but the favorite in our (and your book) is Shalane Flanagan. Editor's Note: Our point below stands that Goucher would not be the favorite stands but she has pulled out of the meet. 
Kara Goucher
Flanagan and the American Record? Editor'e note: Kevin Beck of Running Times wrote us and said he did an article on coach John Cook and his three athletes Shalane, Erin Donohue and Shannon Rowbury in the June issue of Running Times. Beck wrote Cook said she could run 30:30, so expect her to go out in 15:15. Beck tells us there is a podcast here where he talks about his John Cook and Shalane. A few things are going against Flanagan and her record attempt. First 30:50.32 is fast (33rd in the world all-time) so it can not be taken lightly. Secondly, this is Flanagan's first track 10,000 ever and running a track 10,000m can be very mentally challenging. Thirdly, it's Flanagan's first track race of the year. Last year Flanagan broke the American 5000 record (14:44) in her first outdoor track race of the year, and the American 3k indoor record in her first indoor race of the year, so breaking the 10k record her first time out is perhaps not as daunting (although she did run some indoor races last year) as it may seem. If the race is a bona fide American record attempt, in its latter stages we think there is one athlete who can stay with Flanagan, and it's Kiwi Kim Smith. Smith was an NCAA star in Providence, and has showed a lot of promise since. Three years ago in Boston, she ran 14:50 all-alone indoors lapping runners the entire way in one of the most surprising performances in a long time. She's never really run faster since (14:49 outdoors isn't as impressive), but doesn't get a lot of respect. (She may be the "Rodney Dangerfield" of running as some are saying) A win on Sunday would go a long way in erasing that title. Being ignored is last year's champ (31:17.31), Jen Rhines. Rhines is the wife of Terrence Mahon (her coach and Deena Kastor's and Ryan Hall's coach) and she is getting better with age. Last year she ran prs at 3k (8:35) and 10k (31:17.31) and she isn't showing any signs of slowing down (she'll turn 34 in 2 months). She beat Smith last year at the Cardinal Invite (Smith ran 31:20 for a Kiwi national record), but if the race is a sub 31 minute affair we just think it's more likely Smith is the one with Flanagan instead of Rhines. Others: Sally Kipyego has dominated the NCAA ranks for the last couple of years and enters the race in the best shape of her life after a 15:11 5k pr and win at Mt. Sac. She is now showing she can perhaps bridge the gap from the top of the collegiate ranks to the professional ranks but she only ran 31:56 here last year. Taking a minute off that time is a difficult task. German Sabrina Mockenhaupt is in the field, as is a strong Japanese and Mexican contingent but don't expect them to contend up front. If Alicia Shay runs it will be her first race since the death of her husband Ryan. Predictions: 1) Flanagan 2) Smith 3) Rhines 30:50 is fast but it's not that fast. Sub 30:30 is a much harder club to join, and although we're a bit leery to predict American records (as they are very hard to come by) if Ingrid Kristiansen could run 30:13 22 years ago, it's time for the US mark to catch up to the rest of the world. American record for Flanagan.
Men's 10,000m: Question Marks All Around The favorite if he runs is Mottram. Mottram like everyone else is training in Flagstaff this spring. The Aussie has had an up and down 2008 (he ran a US all-comers record of 7:34 in January, 13:11 in February but was only 31st at the World Cross Country Champs). He's already raced 8 times in 2008 (more if you count relay races like this), but a change at a backup "A" standard in the 10,000m may coax him to the starting line on Sunday. If Mottram runs, he's the favorite because he's the class of the field even if everyone else was in their prime which they're not. Mo Farah, 2nd at the Carlsbad 5000m, and a 13:07 guy from Britain seems like the next likely challenger although this is his 10k debut. Everyone else is full of question marks. Of guys not past their prime, Alistair Cragg has done well here in the past but he dropped out of World Cross and was beaten by no-name former EPO cheat Cathal Lombard at the Irish XC Champs. Josh McDougal only ran 13:38 at Mt. Sac and was only 5th and 6th at the NCAA 3k and 5k indoors. Takayuki Matsumiya has run 13:13 which is a Japanese national record (shows you don't need great speed to be world class in the marathon), but he only ran 13:40 2 weeks ago. That brings us to Galen Rupp. Rupp won last year but it was in bizarre fashion. He didn't go with the leaders when the race was broken open and then somehow managed to catch-up and get the win. Rupp has had trouble winning the big races (NCAA champs), but ironically got a big win last year when he was just going for a big time. Mile speed is not essential for running a 10k, but Rupp only ran 4:03 last week, and coach Alberto Salazar indicated a sub 4:00 was the goal beforehand.. Predictions: It's hard to predict a time trial. Hopefully Mottram runs. If not a guy to watch out for is a guy listed on the 2nd section, Collis Birmingham. Birmingham ran 13:21 at Mt. Sac to win and qualify for the Australian Olympic team. He should be in the 1st section. Mo Farah will do well and understands where Stanford fits into the big scheme of things. He told Athletics Weekly, "We will set off at 27:30 pace and see how
it goes, but the best guys in the world are running around 26:30-27:00
- that is where it is at"
Men's 1500: Symmonds vs Lomong Lomong burst on the scene last year coming from seemingly out of nowhere to run a pr 3:37.07 to defeat Leonel Manzano and win the NCAA championship. Then, Lomong opted to run the 800 at USA Nationals last year. He then continued his upswing with a 3rd place at the NCAA Cross Champs. He subsequently turned pro and many are excited about him joining the US 1500m ranks. Nick Symmonds specialty is the 800 (coming off a 6th at the World Indoor champs) but he did run a 3:56.72 indoors last year. Symmonds is a true competitor and we've yet to see him not bring his "A" game (the dude went undefeated in college and much of high school at 800. DIII or not, that is impressive). He's raced once outdoors so far this year, last weekend at Penn Relays on the opening leg of the DMR. So what did he do? Blast it from the gun, going out in 1:52 to split 2:51. Lomong had better be ready on Sunday.
Predictions: 1) Lomong 2) Symmonds
Men's 5k: Lookout for Lagat Before Lagat was world champ at 5k, he used to regularly destroy the North American circuit of 5k guys at Mt. Sac. His kick is ferocious and we'd be shocked if he doesn't win on Sunday (he too still needs his "A" qualifier.) Women's 1500: A High Schooler in the Field Predictions: 1) Fleshman 2) Hall Hall may get the most attention but her pr is "only" 4:08. We're not ready to put her ahead of Fleshman Men's 800: NCAA 1500m Preview? Men's Steeple:
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Cross Country Spikes 10% off Injured?
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43.1%
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15.6%
10.1%
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1.9%
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