Where Your Dreams Become
Reality
Where Your Dreams Become
Reality
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Letsrun.com PAC 10 Men's XC Championship Preview: Like The Women's Race, It's #1 vs. #2 (But it won't even be close!!) October 29, 2008 Teams: #1 Oregon, #2 Stanford, #13 UCLA, #24 Cal, #24 Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, Arizona Meet information: October 31 at the Oregon Duck course in Eugene. In a crazy year for the PAC 10, both the men's and women's fields include the nation's #1 and #2 ranked teams. Everyone knew Oregon would be a highly ranked team, and they are justly #1. But Stanford is a late surprise at #2, earning that mark after a sensational Pre-Nationals performance that saw them best every other team in attendance once results were combined. It would be interesting to know how they would stack up against Oklahoma St., but the Cowboys were rightfully displaced down to 3rd after German Fernandez and company ran (and ran awesomely) the open race. In his first year at Stanford, former UVA coach Jason Dunn has his team running well. 7-time All-American Garrett Heath and freshman phenom Chris Derrick led the Cardinal charge at Pre-Nats. The Cardinal have 2 All-Americans who did not even compete in Terre Haute, including last year's All-PAC 10 XC performer Hari Mix.
But if we want to really talk about a deep team, the Oregon Ducks are certainly that. For starters, they have 2 American Olympians on their team (Galen Rupp and Andrew Wheating), another returner who won the conference XC title last year (Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott) and a slew of other insanely talented runners including the son of one of the best American distance runners ever, Matt
Centrowitz, Jr, and a bunch of returners from last year's NCAA championship team including Kenny Klotz and the Mercado brothers. This team ain't getting beat, whether Rupp runs or not (we hope he does after the chatter about his awe-inspiring 24-lap 30-40 workout). We assume he will, and we also assume he will have some sort of hand signal and pose to unveil when he easily takes down the title. On a side note, we don't feel like
enough people have really thought about how insanely well Rupp ran to get 13th at the Olympics this year. He was the first non-African to finish and ran 27:36.99 in hot, tough conditions. Well done, Galen. With performances like that, we hope that his home course is "Rupp Certified" (a poster on the LRC message board thread says
it is NOT Rupp certified) so Alberto Salazar will allow him to compete, but also stay healthy and happy.
Of course, it makes perfect sense that the PAC 10 has 8 cross-country teams competing, so there must be some other teams worth talking about besides ones from Tall Pole, California and Eugene, Oregon. Yeah, UCLA, Cal and U-Dub are all good, but it's getting late and we're going to get straight to the predictions. One note: Oregon has so many good guys who haven't
even run yet this season that it is impossible to tell who is going to be running for them in the top 12, but we'll give it a go!
LRC 2008 PAC 10 Team Predictions:
This is pretty easy to predict as 7 of the 8 competed at Pre-Nats. Our only question is who is 4th and who is 5th. 1. Oregon 22
2. Stanford 42
3. UCLA ~85
4. Washington ~110
5. California ~120
...
LRC 2008 PAC 10 Individual Predictions
1. Galen Rupp (Ore)
2. Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott (Ore)
3. Garrett Heath (Stan)
4. Kenny Klotz (Ore)
5. Laef Barnes (UCLA)
6. AJ Acosta (Ore)
7. Chris Derrick (Stan)
8. Elliot Heath (Stan)
9. Matt Centrowitz, Jr. (Ore)
10. Hakon Devries (Stan)
11. Andrew Wheating (Ore)
12. Mark Matusak (Cal)
13. A Mercado Brother (Ore) [yes, that's 7 in the top 13, in a race with 4 other ranked teams including the nation's #2 team ...]
2007 PAC 10 Results
1. Oregon 39
2. Stanford 55
3. Cal 70
4. UCLA 97
5. ASU 105
6. UW ...
2007 PAC 10 Individual Results
1 67 SHADRACK KIPTOO-BIWOTT 9 M 0:22:54.9 OREGON 4:37 2 76 GALEN RUPP 9 M 0:22:58.4 OREGON 4:37 3 89 RUSSELL BROWN 9 M 0:23:08.7 STANFORD 4:39 4 126 AUSTIN RAMOS 9 M 0:23:10.8 UCLA 4:40 5 103 HARI MIX 9 M 0:23:11.6 STANFORD 4:40 6 87 NEFTALEM ARAIA 9 M 0:23:12.1 STANFORD 4:40 7 47 YOSEF GHEBRAY 9 M 0:23:14.4 CAL 4:41 8 52 MARK MATUSAK 9 M 0:23:16.8 CAL 4:41 9 55 DAVID TORRENCE 9 M 0:23:17.4 CAL 4:41 10 16 KYLE ALCORN 9 M 0:23:18.8 ASU 4:41 11 83 SCOTT WALL 9 M 0:23:21.4 OREGON 4:42 12 56 ANDREW ACOSTA 9 M 0:23:24.0 OREGON 4:42 Hypothetical results based on returners from 2007 conference meet + selected results from major 2008 meets
In listing a score for the returners, we remove last year's seniors and score the hypothetical meet in a normal fashion; i.e., runners who were outside a team's top 7 last year but move into the top 7 when seniors are removed have been counted as scorers or displacers. Returning runners who remain outside their team's top 7 do not figure into either scoring or displacing and count as extras. Obviously, some runners listed as retuners will, in fact, not be running this season. New recruits or transfers will also clearly have an immediate impact, as will runners left off of last year's squads who may have improved dramatically this year. These lists are merely a reflection of what the teams' returning conference runners did at last year's meet and how they would have placed if last year's seniors were removed - nothing more, nothing less. Below each team's returners, the most recent major 2008 results are given (e.g., Pre-Nationals). 1. Oregon (24)
2. California (57)
3. Stanford (84)
4. UCLA (107)
5. Washington (122)
6. Arizona State (138)
7. Washington State (157)
8. Arizona (224)
Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott (1) Galen Rupp (2) Scott Wall (6) A.J. Acosta (7) Kenny Klotz (8) Andrew Wheating (9) Matt Centrowitz, Jr. (17) Mike Hodges Invitational
1 Wheating, Andrew Oregon 4:55 19:40 1 2 Centrowitz, Matthew Unattached 4:55 19:40 3 Winter, Chris Oregon 4:56 19:42 2 4 Dettman, Eric Oregon 4:59 19:56 3 5 Stoutenburgh, Isaac Oregon 5:00 19:57 4 6 Dettman, Matt Oregon 5:02 20:06 5 7 Kreuz, Cameron Southern Oregon 5:02 20:08 6 8 D'Onofrio, Vincent Oregon 5:03 20:11 7 2. California (57) Yosef Ghebray (4) Mark Matusak (5) Michael Coe (11) Kari Karlsson (20) Eric Lee (37) Matt Miller (43) Austin Jett (50) 2008 Pre Nationals
8. 315 California (24:32.5 122:42.4) ========================================================== 1 16 178 Mark Matusak 24:00.4 2 36 174 Michael Coe 24:16.6 3 58 176 Kari Karlsson 24:33.3 4 77 175 Yosef Ghebray 24:44.5 5 128 179 Matt Miller 25:07.6 6 (179) 180 Matt Hansda Miller 25:31.7 7 (180) 181 Steve Sodaro 25:32.7 3. Stanford (84) Hari Mix (3) Hakon DeVries (12) Garrett Heath (18) Eliott Heath (23) Justin Marpole-Bird (28) Brendan Gregg (33) (only 6 returning finishers) 2008 Pre Nationals
1. 77 Stanford (23:52.5 119:22.1) ========================================================== 1 3 1304 Garrett Heath 23:36.4 2 4 1298 Chris Derrick 23:37.0 3 12 1303 Elliott Heath 23:48.1 4 25 1299 Hakon Devries 24:04.7 5 33 1308 Jake Riley 24:15.9 6 ( 77) 1301 Brendan Gregg 24:43.4 4. UCLA (107) Drew Shackleton (13) Laef Barnes (14) Marco Anzures (24) Marlon Patterson (27) Alex Crabill (29) Jake Matthews (30) Kent Morikawa (36) (only 6 returning finishers) 2008 Pre Nationals
5. 196 UCLA (24:15.6 121:18.0) ========================================================== 1 14 1474 Laef Barnes 23:49.4 2 29 1482 Drew Shackleton 24:10.1 3 40 1479 Marlon Patterson 24:19.7 4 52 1478 Kent Morikawa 24:26.1 5 61 1476 Mike Haddan 24:32.7 6 ( 70) 1473 Marco Anzures 24:39.5 7 (175) 1475 Alex Crabill 25:32.25. Washington (122) Jon Harding (15) Caleb Knox (21) Kelly Spady (25) Max O'Donoghue-McDonald (26) Colton Tully-Doyle (35) Riley Booker (39) Brian Govier (40) 2008 Pre Nationals
11. 306 Washington (24:32.2 122:41.0) ========================================================== 1 27 1601 Jake Schmitt 24:07.7 2 48 1599 Jeremy Mineau 24:23.4 3 68 1603 Colton Tully-Doyle 24:38.9 4 78 1597 Jon Harding 24:43.4 5 85 1595 Chris Ahl 24:47.6 6 (103) 1602 Jordan Swarthout 24:56.4 7 (157) 1596 Alec Bromka 25:20.46. Arizona State (138) Jeff Helmer (10) Ben Englehart (16) Alonso Contreras (19) David Melhorn (46) Santos Castro (47) (only 5 returning finishers) 2008 Pre Nationals
17. 533 Arizona State (24:56.4 124:41.7) ========================================================== 1 51 85 Patrick Milloy 24:24.9 2 81 82 Ben Engelhardt 24:45.0 3 123 84 David Mehlhorn 25:04.7 4 132 81 Santos Castro 25:10.3 5 146 83 Dylan Hatcher 25:16.8 6 (149) 87 Noah Shannon 25:17.7 7 (205) 86 Thomas Petersen 25:52.17. Washington State (157) Drew Polley (22) Dan Geib (31) Sam Ahlbeck (32) Luke Lemenager (34) Dominic Smargiassi (38) David Hickerson (45) (only 6 returning finishers) 2008 Pre Nationals
17. 496 Washington St. (24:52.7 124:23.3) ========================================================== 1 37 1622 Drew Polley 24:16.8 2 66 1615 Sam Ahlbeck 24:38.3 3 92 1623 Dominic Smargiassi 24:51.5 4 124 1621 Mark Moeller 25:06.3 5 177 1617 Justin Englund 25:30.4 6 (238) 1619 Jonathan Lafler 26:08.98. Arizona (224) Dylan Fitzpatrick (41) Carlos Rybeck (42) Reed Blochberger (44) Victor Zazueta (48) Brian MacArthur (49) (only 5 returning finishers) 2008 Pre Nationals
36. 892 Arizona (25:34.6 127:52.6) ========================================================== 1 96 64 Dylan Fitzpatrick 24:53.2 2 176 65 Abdi Hassan 25:30.3 3 178 66 Mohamud Ige 25:31.5 5 224 68 Jordan Mara 26:00.8 6 (225) 70 Victor Zazueta 26:01.7 7 (236) 69 Carlos Rybeck 26:07.4 *Disagree with our predictions? Vote in our NCAA Polls (National and Conference Voting) or email us *LetsRun.com NCAA XC Conference Polls from 10/17/08
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