LRC: Beijing is Here, Olympics Kick Off With Women's 10k Final, Men's Shot Final, 100m Showdown Getting Underway, Round 1 of Steeples, Men's 1,500m and Women's 800m by: LetsRun.com August 13, 2008
The track and field events begin on Friday in Beijing (Thursday night in the US, detailed TV schedule for US viewers here (the marathons are live, some events are 15 hours tape delayed) at the 2008 Beijing Olympics with an exciting women's 10k final, the men's shot put final, and first round action in the Tyson Gay / Usain Bolt / AsafaPowell 100m showdown, the first rounds of the men's and women's steeple, the women's 800m, and the men's 1,500m.
LetsRun.com previews of all of the distance action from Friday with the other highlights below. We'll have more previews of this weekend's action each day.
Women's 10,000m: Dibaba Goes For First Olympic Gold Friday August 15 10:45 AM (East Coast Time) Overview
The track and field action gets going Friday evening (Friday morning in the US, although the event will not air until Saturday morning (1 am) in the US) in Beijing with a bang - the women's 10,000m final. The event features world beater Tirunesh Dibaba going after the only thing missing on her résumé, an Olympic gold medal. Nine others will be trying to challenge for spots on the podium, including a strong American contingent led by last year's bronze medallist Kara Goucher and US 10,000m record holder Shalane Flanagan.
Operating
on the premise that World Cross results are a good predictor of global
championship success at 10,000m, we'll go with this year's X-C winner
and runner-up to take the top two spots. It is doubtful many prognosticators are going to pick against Tirunesh Dibaba,
the X-C Champion, as she is also the most accomplished track performer of the contestants (she ran an incredible 14:11.15 this year) and has a ferocious finishing kick, although she struggled with stomach cramps in the middle of the race last year. World XC runner-up and Ethiopian teammate Mestawet Tufa will likely assume the role of female equivalent of Sileshi Sihine or Paul Tergat
and make a late bid to win, only to fall to Dibaba's even later kick and
take the silver. An Ethiopian medal sweep is a distinct possibility, as Tirunesh's sister Ejegayehu, the 2004 silver medallist, is in the field. Despite all of Tirunesh Dibaba's accomplishments, she is only the second-most accomplished Olympian in her family, with her 5,000m bronze in 2004.
Last year's Worlds showed that an Ethiopian sweep is no sure thing. The Ethiopians were favored on paper, had four runners in the field (they can only bring three to the Olympics), and only came away with Tirunesh's gold. Ejegayehu finished 7th, Tufa dropped out after a midrace collision, and the 4th Ethiopian, Aheza Kiros, finished 18th out of 19 (results here, recap here).
Lornah Kiplagat
has the fastest PR in the field, although several years removed from
it, and probably is not as fast as the Ethiopians over the final lap,
but showed superb fitness and ability to run in the heat to win World Cross last year, so she should
be close to medal position throughout. Kenyan Lucy Kabuu delivered a dominating 14:33.49 5,000m victory in warm weather this summer and is one to watch, as is Elvan Abeylegesse, a former WR holder at 5,000m. Both have excellent chances given their top times and competitive records.
A slew of non-African-born runners could contend for the bronze medal spot. The USA's Kara Goucher showed what is possible last year with her surprise bronze medal. Goucher is running even better in 2008 than in 2007, so she will not sneak up on anyone this year. She will have to contend with Britain's Jo Pavey
(4th place in Osaka), whom she outkicked for the medal last year, and the US 10,000m champ and American record holder Shalane Flanagan. (Update:Shalane Flanagan Has Food Poisoning) The question marks on Flanagan are if she can run well later in the season and can hold up in the heat. She fizzled a bit last year at Worlds but no doubt has changed her training around this year to peak in Beijing. New Zealand record holder Kim Smith
also has a real chance to medal, but a few others are likely still
better at their best. Goucher, Pavey, and Smith could all run better than last year and still finish in a worse position than in Osaka. Last year, the Ethiopians had an off day and the Kenyan women were just starting to emerge as an international factor. A 4th to 6th place finish for either
Flanagan, Smith, Goucher or Pavey is a strong showing in this field.
Picks Ethiopian Sweep: 1.) T. Dibaba 2.) Tufa 3.) E. Dibaba
Major Contenders
(From the LetsRun.com Prediction Contest) Who will win the Women's 10,000m?
Tirunesh Dibaba
57.3%
Shalane Flanagan
15.3%
Mestawet Tufa
15%
Other (includes Lucy Kabuu, Jo Pavey)
5.1%
Kim Smith
4%
Lornah Kiplagat
1.9%
Kara Goucher
0.6%
Inga Abitova
0.5%
Elvan Abeylegesse
0.2%
Penninah Arusei
0.2%
Kayoko Fukushi
0.1%
Hilda Kibet
0.1%
Shalane Flanagan
(USA) 2008 Best: 30:34.49 (American record) Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances in 10,000m, 8th in 5,000m in 2007 World Championships
Kim Smith (New Zealand) 2008 Best: 30:35.54 Global Championship Highlights: 5th in 2007 World Championships, 15th in 2005 World Championships
Inga Abitova (Russia) 2008 Best: 30:46.70 Lifetime Best: 30:31.42 (2006) Global Championship Highlights: 12th in 2007 World Championships
Mestawet Tufa (Ethiopia) 2008 Best: 30:38.33 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances in 10,000m, 2nd in 2008 World Cross-Country
Hilda Kibet (Netherlands) 2008 Best: 30:58.48 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances in 10,000m, 5th in 2008 World Cross-Country
Mariya Konovalova (Russia) 2008 Best: 30:59.35 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances in 10,000m, 11th in 2007 World Cross-Country
Tirunesh Dibaba
(Ethiopia) 2008 Best: 31:03.37 Lifetime Best: 30:15.67 (#9 all-time) (2005) Global Championship Highlights: 2005 and 2007 10,000m
World Champion, 2005 5,000m World Champion, 2008 World Cross-Country Champion
Lornah Kiplagat
(Netherlands) 2008 Best: 31:04.04 Lifetime Best: 30:12.53 (#6 all-time) (2003) Global Championship Highlights: 4th in 2003 World
Championships, 5th in 2004 Olympics, 2007 World Cross-Country Champion, 2007 World
Half Marathon Champion, 2006 World Road 20k Champion
Ejegayehu Dibaba (Ethiopia) 2008 Best: 31:04.05 Lifetime Best: 30:18.39 Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 2004 Olympics, 7th in 2007 World Championships
Yoko Shibui
(Japan) 2008 Best: 31:15.07 Lifetime Best: 30:48.89 (2002) Global Championship Highlights: 14th in 10,000m in 2003 World Championships,
4th in 2001 World Championships Marathon (PR of 2:19:41 is #6 all-time)
Kayoko Fukushi
(Japan) 2008 Best: 31:18.79 Lifetime Best: 30:51.81 (2002) Global Championship Highlights: 10th in 2007 World Championships, 11th in 2003
and 2005 World Championships, 26th in 2004 Olympics 6th in 2006 World
Cross-Country long course, 6th in 2006 World Road 20k Championships,
appearances in 5,000m in 2003, 2005, 2007 World Championships
Kara Goucher (USA) 2008 Best: 31:26.48 Lifetime Best: 31:17.12 (2006) Global Championship Highlights: Bronze medal in 2007 World Championships
Elvan Abeylegesse (Turkey) 2008 Best: 31:36.33 Lifetime Best: 30:21.67 (2006) Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 2007 World Championships
Amy Begley (USA) 2008 Best: 31:43.60 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances
Jo Pavey (Great Britain) 2008 Best: 31:56.90 Lifetime Best: 31:26.94 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: 4th in 2007 World Championships, 9th in 5,000m in 2007 World Championships
Lucy Kabuu (Kenya) 2008 Best: 32:18.6h (5,450 ft. altitude) Lifetime Best: 31:05.90 (2004) Global Championship Highlights: 9th in 2004 Olympics, 5th in 2005 World Cross-Country short race
Women's 800m: Jelimo vs. Herself? Thursday, August 14, 11:10 PM (East Coast Time)
Overview
Who will win the Women's 800m?
Pamela Jelimo
90.9%
Hasna Benhassi
2.3%
Tatyana Andrianova
1.6%
Janeth Jepkosgei
1.5%
Svetlana Kluka
0.9%
Maria Mutola
0.7%
Alice Schmidt
0.7%
Hazel Clark-Riley
0.5%
Alysia Johnson
0.4%
Hazel Clark
0.2%
Other
0.2%
Janeth Jepkosgei was last year's sensation and grabbed gold at Worlds but has had to take a back seat this year to the even more
sensational Pamela Jelimo.With the world leader, Russian Yelena Soboleva,
suspended for a doping violation, it seems only a fall might prevent
the undefeated Jelimo from romping to victory. The only possible knock
on Jelimo is that she has no
global championship experience, which means no familiarity with
conserving energy through the rounds or facing different types of
tactics. Running in an Olympic-quality field without a rabbit could
also conceivably rattle the greenhorn, but she has been so dominant
this season that no strategy her opponents muster is liable to prevent her
from simply frontrunning to the gold medal.
The
Russian contingent, even minus Soboleva, still poses a formidable
threat in the race for the other medals, as all three entrants are over
a second ahead of the remaining contenders on the stopwatch this season
and both Tatyana Andrianova and Svetlana Kluka
have made finals in World or Olympic competition. Behind the Russians,
a plethora of athletes appear on the yearly list with times within a
second of each other. Jepkosgei has been consistently about 2.5 seconds
slower than her world-beating form of a year ago, but surely cannot be
overlooked and will not give away a medal without a battle. Ukrainian Tetiana Petlyuk
claimed the silver at this year's World Indoors in a slow race but has
run under 1:58 in the past and is capable in any type of race. Hasna Benhassi
always seems to bring her A game to global championships and finds a
way to be in medal contention, handling rounds well and executing
masterful race tactics. She owns three silvers and one bronze in global
competition. Meanwhile, Cuban Zulia Catalayud is looking for the magic she found to win a surprise gold in the 2005 Worlds, while the gritty and wily Maria Mutola, one of the most decorated track athletes in history, might still sneak into the medal hunt in her 6th Olympic Games.
Jelimo in Oslo
On
paper, Jelimo is the class of the field and should win the gold barring
a misfortune or a blatant tactical mistake. At least one of the
Russians (though having never run stellar times outside of Russia, surprise, surprise)
seems likely to medal, and we'll go with Andrianova, the fastest and
most globally-tested of the bunch, for the silver. The other Russians
are less seasoned in competitions of this nature and magnitude than
many of the runners behind them on the 2008 list, so it seems
reasonable to consider the more experienced athletes as equally likely
to medal. The competition will be fierce between the runners whose
yearly marks are in the 1:58s, and the outcome is a virtual tossup.
Jepkosgei, Petlyuk, Marilyn Okoro, Lucia Klocová
and Benhassi are all within 0.16 seconds of each other this season.
Unless the World Champion, 1:56.04 PR runner Jepkosgei, has been
sandbagging so far this year, the tight pack may mean superior
experience and tactics will prevail. Thus, we'll pick the
highly-accomplished and consistent Benhassi to slip through to a bronze.
Picks
1.) Jelimo 2.) Andrianova 3.) Benhassi
Major Contenders
Pamela Jelimo(Kenya)2008 Best: 1:54.97 (#7 all-time,
world junior record) Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances
Tatyana Andrianova (Russia) 2008 Best: 1:56.00 Global Championship Highlights: Bronze medal in 2005 World Championships, 5th in 2004 Olympics
Svetlana Kluka
(Russia) 2008 Best: 1:56.64 Global Championship Highlights: 7th in 2007 World Championships
Ekaterina Kostetskaya (Russia) 2008 best: 1:56.67 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances
Tetiana Petlyuk (Ukraine) 2008 Best: 1:58.38 Lifetime Best: 1:57.34 (2006) Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 2008 World Indoors, semifinalist in 2004 Olympics and several other recent global championships
Marilyn Okoro (Great Britain) 2008 Best: 1:58.45 Global Championship Highlights: Semifinalist in 2007 World Championships
Lucia Klocová (Slovakia) 2008 Best: 1:58.51 Global Championship Highlights: Semifinalist in the last 4 outdoor global championships
Janeth Jepkosgei (Kenya) 2008 Best: 1:58.52 Lifetime Best:
1:56.04 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: 2007 World Champion
Hasna Benhassi
(Morocco) 2008 Best: 1:58.54 Lifetime Best: 1:56.43 (2004) Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 2004 Olympics, silver
medals in 2005 and 2007 World Championships, bronze medal in 2006 World
Indoors, 5th in 1999 World Indoors, 8th in 2000 Olympics, 2001 World
Indoor 1,500m Champion
Zulia Catalayud
(Cuba) 2008 Best: 1:59.18 Lifetime Best: 1:56.09 (2002) Global Championship Highlights: 2005 World Champion, 6th in 2000 Olympics,
8th in 2004 Olympics, semifinalist in 2007 World Championships
Maria Mutola (Mozambique) 2008 Best: 1:59.24 Lifetime Best: 1:55.19 (= #9 all-time) (1994) Global Championship Highlights: 2000 Olympic Champion, 2001 and
2003 World Champion, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006 World Indoor
Champion, silver medal in 1999 World Championships, silver medal in 1999 World
Indoors, bronze medal in 1996 Olympics, bronze medal in 1997 World
Championships, bronze medal in 2008 World Indoors, numerous additional top-5
finishes in global championships, competed in first Olympics in 1988
Mayte Martínez (Spain) 2008 Best: No
outdoor mark Lifetime Best: 1:57.62 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Bronze medal in 2007 World Championships, bronze
medal in 2003 World Indoors, semifinalist in 2000 and 2004 Olympics.
Hazel Clark (USA) 2008 Best: 1:59.82 Lifetime Best: 1:57.99 (2005) Global Championship Highlights: 7th in 2000
Olympics, 8th in 2005 World Championships, semifinalist in 2007 World Championships,
eliminated in first round of 2001 World Championships and 2004 Olympics 8th in
Athens
Alice Schmidt (USA) 2008 Best: 2:00.01 Lifetime Best: 1:58.75
(2007) Global Championship Highlights: Semifinalist in 2005 World Championships, eliminated in first round of
2007 World Championships
Nicole Teter (USA) 2008 Best: 2:01.07 Lifetime Best: 1:57.97 (2002) Global Championship Highlights: Semifinalist in 2004 Olympics, semifinalist in 2008 World Indoors
Men's 1,500m: Lagat Chases History Friday, August 15, 7:10 AM (East Coast Time) Overview
Who will win the Men's 1500?
Bernard Lagat
72.7%
Augustine Choge
11.5%
Asbel Kiprop
8.4%
Rashid Ramzi
2.7%
Nicholas Kemboi
1.2%
Alex Kipchirchir
0.9%
Mehdi Baala
0.6%
Tarek Boukensa
0.5%
Abdalaati Iguider
0.5%
Andrew Baddeley
0.4%
Alan Webb
0.2%
Juan Carlos Higuero
0.2%
Other
0.2%
Belal Mansoor Ali
0.1%
Mohamed Moustaoui
0.1%
When the men's 1,500m heats kick off, all eyes will be on 2007 World Champion Bernard Lagat, who occupied the silver medal position behind "King of the Mile" Hicham El Guerrouj
in the last Olympic Games. Lagat, who had moved up from the bronze
medal position in Sydney, was representing his native Kenya in Athens,
but scored gold medals in both the 1,500m and 5,000m in the Osaka
Worlds for his adopted country, the USA. In attempting the same double
in the Olympics, one El Guerrouj successfully completed in Athens,
Lagat will simultaneously aim to become the first man to claim 1,500m bronze,
silver and gold in successive Olympics. The World Champion has only one
blemish on his seasonal record, a 3rd-place finish in London in which
he allowed himself to get uncharacteristically trapped in the tight
field. Lagat's marks have been modest by world-class standards, but the
same was true prior to Worlds a year ago, and no one will be lulled
into writing off the most accomplished currently-competing 1,500m
runner in the world.
Finding a clear
leader to Lagat's challengers is nigh impossible, as the principal
players either have blotches on their records or have not contested the
1,500m distance this year. Augustine Choge
has one of the strongest competitive records this year, including big
wins in Berlin and Paris, and is also the yearly leader on the
stopwatch, but he was beaten back to 3rd in Oslo's Dream Mile by
Britain's Andy Baddeley and Ethiopia's Deresse Mekonnen, who have also had fine overall seasons but have come far short of perfection. Kenyan Asbel Kiprop,
last year's exciting young find, has the talent to win the gold, but
perhaps not the patience and savvy tactics of the veterans. Morocco's Abdalaati Iguider has been remarkably consistent, with four sub-3:33 performances in 2008, and figures to factor heavily into the mix. The third Kenyan, teenager Nicholas Kemboi,
is untested on the largest stage but is a wellspring of talent, having
run 3:33.72 at age 16 in 2006. The biggest question mark in the field
is 2005 World Champion Rashid Ramzi, who has yet to
race at 1,500m this season but has moved up to the 2 mile and 5,000m
with solid results. Ramzi made history in 2005 when he won both the
800m and 1,500m at Worlds, becoming the first man to accomplish the
double at a World Championships and the first to win both events at any
global championship since Peter Snell managed the feat in the 1964 Olympics.
Picks
1.) Lagat 2.) Choge 3.) Kiprop
Major Contenders
Augustine Choge (Kenya) 2008 Best: 3:31.57 Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2005 World Championships, has wins in lesser championships at other distances
Asbel Kiprop (Kenya) 2008 Best: 3:31.64 Global Championship Highlights: 4th in 2007 World Championships
Abdalaati Iguider (Morocco) 2008 Best: 3:31.88 Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Tarek Boukensa (Algeria) 2008 Best: 3:31.98 Lifetime Best: 3:30.92 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: 5th in 2007 World Championships, 8th in 2005 World Championships
Mehdi Baala (France) 2008 Best: 3:32.00 Lifetime Best: 3:28.98 (#6 all-time) (2003) Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 2003 World Championships, 4th in 2000 Olympics, finalist in 2001 World Championships
Mohamed Moustaoui (Morocco) 2008 Best: 3:32.06 Global Championship Highlights: Semifinalist in 2007 World Championships
Juan Carlos Higuero (Spain) 2008 Best: 3:32.57 Lifetime Best: 3:31.57 (2006) Global Championship Highlights:
Bronze medal in 2008 World Indoors, 6th in 2005 World Championships,
8th in 2000 Olympics, 8th in 2003 World Indoors, semifinalist in 2004
Olympics
Deresse Mekonnen (Ethiopia) 2008 Best: 3:49.72 mile Global Championship Highlights: 2008 World Indoor Champion, eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Belal Mansoor Ali (Bahrain) 2008 Best: 3:33.12 Lifetime Best: 3:31.49 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Finalist in 2007 World Championships
Arturo Casado (Spain) 2008 Best: 3:33.14 Global Championship Highlights: 4th in 2008 World Indoors, 5th in 2005 World Championships, 7th in 2007 World Championships
Nick Willis (New Zealand) 2008 Best: 3:33.51 Lifetime Best: 3:32.17 (2006) Global Championship Highlights: Semifinalist in 2004 Olympics
Nicholas Kemboi (Kenya) 2008 Best: 3:50.83 mile Lifetime Best: 3:33.72 (2006) Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances
Bernard Lagat (USA) 2008 Best: 3:35.14 Lifetime Best: 3:26.34 (#2 all-time) (2001) Global Championship Highlights:
2007 World Champion, silver medal in 2004 Olympic Games, silver medal
in 2003 World Indoors, silver medal in 2001 World Championships, bronze
medal in 2000 Olympics, 2007 5,000m World Champion
Lopez Lomong (USA) 2008 Best: 3:36.36 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances
Leonel Manzano (USA) 2008 Best: 3:40.90 Lifetime Best: 3:35.29 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Rashid Ramzi (Bahrain) 2008 Best: No mark Lifetime Best: 3:29.14 (#8 all-time) (2006) Global Championship Highlights: 2005 World Champion, silver medal in 2007 World Championships, 5th in 2008 World Indoors, 2005 800m World Champion
Rui Silva (Portugal) 2008 Best: No mark Lifetime Best: 3:30.07 (2002) Global Championship Highlights:
2001 World Indoor Champion, Bronze medals in 2004 Olympics and 2005
World Championships, 5th in 2003 World Championships and 1999 World
Indoors, 7th in 2001 World Championships
Men's Steeplechase: Koech the Favorite if He Runs Friday, August 15, 9:20 PM (East Coast Time)
Overview
Who will win the Men's Steeplechase?
Paul Kipsiele Koech
68.7%
Ezekiel Kemboi
11.2%
Richard Mateelong
7.8%
Brimin Kipruto
7.3%
Anthony Famiglietti
3.7%
Steve Slattery
0.3%
Kyle Alcorn
0.2%
Other
0.2%
Tareq Taher
0.2%
Mustafa Mohamed
0.2%
Benjamin Kiplagat
0.1%
Josh McAdams
0.1%
It is no secret that the men's steeple is Kenya's signature
Olympic event. In the eight Olympic Games they have attended since
1968, Kenyan steeplers have taken all eight gold medals, seven silvers
and have swept the medals twice, including in the last Games in Athens.
This year's festivities shape up to result in another Kenyan trio
putting the broom to the field. World leader Paul Kipsiele Koech
has done everything right this season except finish in the top three at
the Kenyan Trials, where a tangle and subsequent wipeout on the last
water barrier submerged his automatic qualifying chances. The sub-8:00
runner is currently tabbed as an alternate but may yet get the
opportunity to improve on his bronze medal from Athens, as the Kenyan
squad remains unfinalized. Koech's would-be teammates, Ezekiel Kemboi and Brimin Kipruto,
were the two steeplers ahead of him in the 2004 Games, with Kemboi
spearheading the Kenyan sweep by grabbing gold. Sans Koech, the Kenyans
are still likely to hog the medals, as Richard Mateelong has the year's second-best time and a bronze medal of his own from Osaka last year.
Assuming the Kenyan trio dictates the race, the gold medal will
probably go to the athlete who does the least of the leading. The usual
Kenyan strategy is to take control at the front within a lap or two and
spread out across the first two lanes as they approach the barriers,
which gives them a clear view of the obstacles, reduces the risk of a
pile-up if the leader goes down, and forces the field to stay behind
with less say in the proceedings. If anyone is to disrupt a Kenyan
sweep, it might be Mustafa Mohamed of Sweden, who was 4th in Osaka a year ago and owns a PR in Kenyan territory, or perhaps Bouabdellah "Bob" Tahri
of France, one of the most experienced steeplers in the game, having
made six global finals with three top-5 finishes but no medals yet. Tareq Taher
of Bahrain (Kenyan-born) claimed a coveted Golden League victory in
Paris with the year's third-best time and, while lacking the
international championship credentials of the others, is a runner to
watch.
Picks
Kenyan Sweep: 1.) Koech 2.) Kemboi 3.) Kipruto (revise order to Kemboi, Kipruto, Mateelong if Kenya does not declare Koech)
Major Contenders
Koech in NY
Paul Kipsiele Koech (Kenya) 2008 Best: 8:00.57 Lifetime Best: 7:56.37 (#5 all-time) (2005) Global Championship Highlights: Bronze medal in 2004 Olympics, 7th in 2005 World Championships
Richard Mateelong (Kenya) 2008 Best: 8:07.64 Lifetime Best: 8:05.96 (2004) Global Championship Highlights: Bronze medal in 2007 World Championships
Tareq Taher (Bahrain) 2008 Best: 8:08.53 Lifetime Best: 8:07.21 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: 8th in 2007 World Championships
Ezekiel Kemboi (Kenya) 2008 Best: 8:09.25 Lifetime Best: 8:02.49 (#9 all-time) (2003) Global Championship Highlights: 2004 Olympic Champion, silver medals in 2005, 2005 and 2007 World Championships
Mustafa Mohamed (Sweden) 2008 Best: 8:11.10 Lifetime Best: 8:05.75 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: 4th in 2007 World Championships, finalist in 2004 Olympics, finalist in 2005 World Championships
Bouabdellah Tahri (France) 2008 Best: 8:12.72 Lifetime Best: 8:06.91 (2003) Global Championship Highlights:
4th in 2003 World Championships, 5th in 2001 and 2007 World
Championships, 7th in 2004 Olympics, 8th in 2005 World Championships,
finalist in 1999 World Championships
Hamid Ezzine (Morocco) 2008 Best: 8:13.20 Lifetime Best: 8:09.72 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2005 World Championships
Brimin Kipruto (Kenya) 2008 Best: 8:13.60 (5,450 ft. altitude) Lifetime Best: 8:02.89 (#10 all-time) (2007) Global Championship Highlights: 2007 World Champion, silver medal in 2004 Olympics, bronze medal in 2005 World Championships
Benjamin Kiplagat (Uganda) 2008 Best: 8:14.29 Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Brahim Taleb (Morocco) 2008 Best: 8:14.32 Lifetime Best: 8:07.02 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Anthony Famiglietti (USA) 2008 Best: 8:20.24 Lifetime Best: 8:17.91 (2004) Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first rounds of 2004 Olympics and 2001 and 2005 World Championships
Billy Nelson (USA) 2008 Best: 8:21.47 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances
Josh McAdams (USA) 2008 Best: 8:21.99 Lifetime Best: 8:21.36 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Women's Steeplechase: The First Olympic Gold Friday, August 15, 8:25 AM (East Coast Time) Overview
Who will win the Women's Steeplechase?
Gulnara Samitova-Galkina
62.9%
Eunice Jepkorir
25.5%
Yekaterina Volkova
5.6%
Tatyana Petrova
2.1%
Jenny Barringer
2%
Anna Willard
0.8%
Jennifer Barringer
0.5%
Other
0.2%
Ruth Nyangau
0.2%
Donna MacFarlance
0.2%
The inaugural Olympic women's steeple provides three Russian
athletes the chance to begin a dynasty analogous to Kenya's dominance
of the men's event. Russians occupy the top three spots on the all-time
list, and all three will toe the line in Beijing. Gulnara Samitova-Galkina is the world record holder, but teammates Yekaterina Volkova and Tatyana Petrova
routed the field at last year's Worlds, taking the top two spots by a
60m margin over 3rd place and posting the #2 and #3 times in history,
while Samitova-Galkina struggled home a disappointing 7th. But with a
victory at the Russian Trials, perhaps as tough a women's steeple
competition as the Olympics themselves, the WR holder appears ready to
lead the way in Beijing.
Leading the potential Russian party crashers are two Kenyans. Eunice Jepkorir,
the bronze medal winner from last year's Worlds, recently raced to the
#4 all-time performance and has experience breaking up the Russian
juggernaut. Compatriot Ruth Bisibori Nyangau, the world junior record holder, was 4th at Worlds and looks to be on the upswing. Spain's Marta Domínguez,
a 3-time Spanish Athlete of the Year, is a relative newcomer to the
event but owns silver medals at the global level in the 5,000m and the
flat 3,000m and has quickly adapted to the steeple. She must be
considered dangerous, as is the rapidly-improving American tandem of Jenny Barringer and Anna Willard, who have traded wins and the American record in their meetings this season.
Gulnara Samitova-Galkina (Russia) 2008 Best: 9:08.21 Lifetime Best: 9:01.59 (world record) (2004) Global Championship Highlights: 7th in steeple in 2007 World Championships, bronze medal in 1,500m in 2004 World Indoors, 6th in 5,000m in 2004 Olympics
Eunice Jepkorir (Kenya) 2008 Best: 9:11.18 (#4 all-time) Global Championship Highlights: Bronze medal in 2007 World Championships
Tatyana Petrova (Russia) 2008 Best: 9:15.84 Lifetime Best: 9:09.19 (#3 all-time) (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 2007 World Championships
Yekaterina Volkova (Russia) 2008 Best: 9:18.24 Lifetime Best: 9:06.57 (#2 all-time) (2007) Global Championship Highlights: 2007 World Champion, silver medal in 2005 World Championships
Donna MacFarlance (Australia) 2008 Best: 9:18.35 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearance
Ruth Bisibori Nyangau (Kenya) 2008 Best: 9:18.43 Global Championship Highlights: 4th in 2007 World Championships Won Kenyan Trials, world junior record holder
Mekdes Bekele (Ethiopia) 2008 Best: 9:20.23 Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Marta Domínguez (Spain) 2008 Best: 9:21.76 Global Championship Highlights:
No prior appearances in steeple, silver medal in 5,000m in 2003 World
Championships, silver medal in 3,000m in 2003 World Indoors, four other
top-6 finishes in 3,000m in World Indoors
Jennifer Barringer (USA) 2008 Best: 9:22.73 (American record) Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Anna Willard (USA) 2008 Best: 9:22.76 Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Wioletta Frankiewicz (Poland) 2008 Best: 9:25.20 Lifetime Best: 9:17.15 (2006) Global Championship Highlights: Finalist in 2005 World Championships
Lindsey Anderson (USA) 2008 Best: 9:30.75 Global Championship Highlights: Eliminated in first round of 2007 World Championships
Men's 100m: The Showdown is Here Thursday, August 14, 9:45 PM (East Coast Time)
Overview
Who will win the Men's 100m?
Usain Bolt
53.4%
Tyson Gay
36.5%
Asafa Powell
10.1%
As in the sprint relay, the open 100m promises to be a
Jamaica vs. USA face-off, with the island nation boasting the two
fastest men of all time and the USA sporting last year's World Champion
and enough depth to win a medal in the relay with its B team. Former WR
holder Asafa Powell held off recent record setter Usain Bolt
in their only matchup of the season in Sweden, but lost the big one to Tyson Gay last year at Worlds. Powell looks to rinse away that bitter taste with the greatest title in
athletics, that of Olympic Champion. Will the favorite mantle unnerve
Bolt at these Games or can he live up to the pressure of being the
fastest man to ever run 100 meters?
An even more pressing question concerns the status of Gay,
who flew to victory at Worlds last year, relegating Powell to the
bronze. The hamstring injury that felled him in the 200m rounds at the
US Trials has prevented him from racing since and fans have to wonder
if he will be at the top of his game. (Note: Gay says he's 100% healthy as does his coach Jon Drummond and they even had Gay do a workout in front of journalists to show he's 100% ready) If he is, a world record may be
required to win the race. Gay was left in Bolt's dust when the
towering Jamaican blitzed his 9.72 record in May, but he seemed ready
to defeat any challenge by the time of the US Trials, where he smoked
an American record 9.77 in the quarterfinals before rocketing to a
wind-aided 9.68 in the final, marking the fastest 100m ever run.
Aficionados and casual fans alike can only hope the American lines up
against both his Jamaican rivals at full strength, as this scenario is
likely to result in the greatest sprint race of all time.
If anyone can play spoiler to the Big Three (not a single person in the LetsRun.com Prediction Contest had picked anyone besides these three at the time of writing this piece), it might be Walter Dix, who was runner-up in the 100m at the US Trials and won the 200m to come away with the top sprint double of the meet. Derrick Atkins
of the Bahamas has not broken 10 seconds this season, but he took the
silver medal ahead of Powell at Worlds and another minor medal in the
Olympics would not be an enormous shocker. The oddsmakers will pick
Bolt, Gay and Powell to take the hardware in some order; if another
sprinter is to butt in, one of those three will probably have to falter.
Picks
1.) Bolt 2.) Gay 3.) Powell
Major Contenders
Usain Bolt (Jamaica) 2008 Best: 9.72 (world record) Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 200m in 2007 World Championships
Tyson Gay (USA) 2008 Best: 9.77 (#3 all-time, AR) Global Championship Highlights: 2007 World Champion in 100m and 200m
Asafa Powell (Jamaica) 2008 Best: 9.82 Lifetime Best: 9.74 (#2 all-time) (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Bronze medal in 2007 World Championships, 5th in 2004 Olympics
Darvis Patton (USA) 2008 Best: 9.89 Global Championship Highlights: No prior global appearances in 100m, silver medal in 200m in 2003 World Championships
Travis Padgett (USA) 2008 Best: 9.89 Global Championship Highlights: No prior global appearances in 100m, listed as an alternate
Richard Thompson (Trinidad and Tobago) 2008 Best: 9.93 Global Championship Highlights: Quarterfinalist in 2007 World Championships
Walter Dix (USA) 2008 Best: 9.96 Global Championship Highlights: No prior appearances
Marc Burns (Trinidad and Tobago) 2008 Best: 9.97 Lifetime Best: 9.96 (2005) Global Championship Highlights: 7th in 2005 World Championships, 8th in 2007 World Championships
Nesta Carter (Jamaica) 2008 Best: 9.98 Global Championship Highlights: Semifinalist in 2007 World Championships
Derrick Atkins (Bahamas) 2008 Best: 10.02 Lifetime Best: 9.91 (2007) Global Championship Highlights: Silver medal in 2007 World Championships
Kim Collins (Saint Kitts and Nevis) 2008 Best: 10.07 Lifetime Best: 9.98 (2002) Global Championship Highlights:
2003 World Champion, bronze medal in 2005 World Championships, 5th in
2001 World Championships, 6th in 2004 Olympics, 7th in 2000 Olympics,
silver medals in 60m in 2003 and 2008 World Indoors, bronze medal in
200m in 2001 World Championships