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LRC 2008 HEPS XC Championship Preview: Princeton Will Win 3rd Straight Heps XC Title ... With 15-Point Sweep? Teams: #4 Princeton, Dartmouth, Penn, Cornell, Harvard, Yale, Brown, Columbia
Meet info: Men's and Women's Heps XC Championships, October 31, 2008. Van Cortlandt Park, Bronx, NY. Men: 12:30, Women: 1:30.
2008 Heps LRC Message Board Prediction Thread Here
2008 Heps LRC Message Board Prediction Thread Here
We're not here to tell you the obvious, we're here to tell you what's important. The obvious is that the Princeton women are bound to crush the rest of the league this year. What's important to do is compare their team to the great teams in Ivy League history. We have inside information from a very reliable source guaranteeing Princeton will score the minimum 15 points this year at the Heps. Although we are going to stop short of a guarantee, we will admit it's pretty likely. They return 5 of the top 6 in the league from last year's results, and Brown's runner who theoretically breaks up their sweep has not competed this year. A sweep would, not surprisingly, set a record (and break the current low mark of 23 held by Dartmouth, '95), and mark the '08 Tigers as the "Most Dominant" Heps team of all time in cross country. It would also mean the Tigers go 1-5, something no team has ever approached, though 2 squads had 1-3 sweeps ('95 and '96 Dartmouth). So the question remains, are they "The Greatest" Heps women's XC team ever?
We'll have to wait until NCAAs to figure that one out. Last year, Princeton's women entered NCAAs as the 4th-ranked team in the country (coincidentally, they currently sit 4th in the national XC polls) and finished 14th. Last year's Tiger team had the chance to be the greatest Ivy team ever, and this one does as well. We'd have to say the greatest-ever women's XC team from the Heps would be the Cornell group that finished 4th at NCAAs 3 years in a row: '91, '92 and '93. That Cornell team's 5th runner was a 16:30 5k girl on the track, and they also featured a 4:09 1,500m runner and 3 others below 4:20 on the track. So to top the Big Red of the early '90s, we'll have to see at least a 4th out of the Tigers at NCAAs. We are darn near 100% sure they will not get top 2 (ahead of Oregon or UW), so there is little room for error. In any case, the Tigers are amazingly good and will "make history" in some way, shape or form over the next few weeks. Behind Princeton, look for a really tight battle for 2-5 between the Harvard Crimson, Cornell Big Red, Columbia Lions and Brown Bears. Harvard, Cornell and Columbia were all at Pre-Nats and the top 5 averages for all three teams were - no joke - between 21:59 and 22:00 (see below if you don't believe us). That is the Heps for you. Brown also looked pretty crisp in winning the Albany Invitational. Penn, Yale and Dartmouth should bring up the rear of the race.
Noteworthy: If one looks at the Pre-Nats results, they will discover that Princeton's top 5 average in tying for first with FSU in Terre Haute was 20:50. That's correct, approximately 70 seconds better over 6k than the next best Heps teams. That is astounding. For those at home keeping score, Penn's Leah Brogan, Columbia's Meaghan Lessard and Cornell's Marie Parks were 13, 15 and 18 seconds, respectively, from breaking up Princeton's top 6 - not top 5 - at Pre-Nats. Yes, that's right, Princeton's sixth runner at Pre-Nats was 13 seconds ahead of the next Ivy League finisher, so we take back what we said earlier. Princeton will make history and go 1-5. They may even go 1-6.
That will prove to be the most interesting story line of the meet - whether or not anyone can break up the Tiger top 6.
2008 LRC Heps Women Team Predictions
1. Princeton Tigers
2. Columbia Lions
3. Brown Bears (Lions and Tigers and Bears ... too good to resist)
4. Cornell Big Red
5. Harvard Crimson
...
2008 LRC Heps Women Individual Predictions
1. Princeton runner omega
2. Princeton runner alpha
3. Princeton runner v
4. Princeton runner x
5. Princeton runner y
6. Princeton runner z
7. Marie Parks (Cornell)
8. Meaghan Lessard (Columbia)
9. Leah Brogan (Penn)
10. Princeton runner gamma
Hypothetical results based on returners from 2007 conference meet + selected results from major 2008 meets
In listing a score for the returners, we remove last year's seniors and score the hypothetical meet in a normal fashion; i.e., runners who were outside a team's top 7 last year but move into the top 7 when seniors are removed have been counted as scorers or displacers. Returning runners who remain outside their team's top 7 do not figure into either scoring or displacing and count as extras. Obviously, some runners listed as retuners will, in fact, not be running this season. New recruits or transfers will also clearly have an immediate impact, as will runners left off of last year's squads who may have improved dramatically this year. These lists are merely a reflection of what the teams' returning conference runners did at last year's meet and how they would have placed if last year's seniors were removed - nothing more, nothing less. Below each team's returners, the most recent major 2008 results are given (e.g., Pre-Nationals). 1. Princeton (17) Liz Costello (1) Christy Johnson (2) Megan Brandeland (3) Jolee Van Leuven (5) Ashley Higginson (6) Liz Deir (10) Sarah Cummings (12) 2008 Pre-Nats
1. 89 Princeton ( 20:50 1:44:10) ========================================================== 1 4 1188 Liz Costello 20:25 2 14 1187 Megan Brandeland 20:47 3 21 1192 Ashley Higginson 20:57 4 22 1186 Alex Banfich 20:58 5 28 1194 Reilly Kiernan 21:03 6 ( 32) 1197 Jolee Vanleuven 21:06 7 ( 70) 1189 Sarah Cummings 21:36 2. Harvard (86) Jaime Olson (8) Claire Richardson (13) Eliza Ives (17) Renata Cummins (23) Meghan Houser (25) Cara Sprague (27) Stacy Carlson (34) 2008 Pre-Nats
21. 556 Harvard ( 22:00 1:50:00) ========================================================== 1 65 512 Claire Richardson 21:33 2 79 511 Jamie Olson 21:42 3 112 506 Nicole Cochran 22:02 4 129 510 Hilary May 22:09 5 171 507 Meghan Houser 22:34 6 (180) 503 Stacy Carlson 22:41 7 (201) 508 Eliza Ives 22:59 3. Columbia (102) Jackie Drouin (7) Alaina Miller (14) Kari Higdem (18) Megan Lessard (28) Irena Ossola (35) Erin Hays (43) Alex Crawley (45) 2008 Pre-Nats 19. 543 Columbia ( 21:59 1:49:55) ========================================================== 1 47 288 Meaghan Lessard 21:21 2 93 285 Jackie Drouin 21:50 3 104 290 Irena Ossola 21:58 4 121 287 Kari Higdem 22:06 5 178 284 Alex Crawley 22:40 6 (187) 286 Christina Henderson 22:46 7 (211) 291 Julie Quinn 23:10 4. Cornell (102) Stephanie Pancoast (11) Katie Sullivan (16) Marie Parks (20) Kim Standridge (26) Caroline Schultz (29) Katie Roll (31) Aeriel Emig (33) 2008 Pre-Nats
22. 576 Cornell (22:00.1 110:00.2) ========================================================== 1 63 308 Marie Parks 21:24.4 2 109 307 Stephanie Pancoast 21:55.9 3 126 312 Katie Sullivan 22:08.8 4 136 304 Fiona Cundy 22:13.9 5 142 305 Aeriel Emig 22:17.2 6 (161) 311 Kim Standridge 22:25.1 7 (192) 301 Meghan Brown 22:46.2 5. Brown (108) Ariel Wright (4) Jenna Ridgway (15) Lauren Pischel (21) Kelsey Ramsey (32) Megan Fitzpatrick (39) Cara Harrison (44) Caroline Scanlan (55) 2008 Albany Invitational
1. 19 Brown University (17:58.5 89:52.3) ============================================= 1 1 Kelsey Ramsey SO 17:42.1 2 2 Michaeline Nelson SO 18:00.1 3 3 Samantha Adelberg SO 18:01.6 4 6 Eliza Webber FR 18:04.0 5 7 Lauren Pishel SO 18:04.5 6 ( 8) Caitlin Stone FR 18:04.8 7 ( 10) Lara Heigis SO 18:08.3 6. Penn (147) Leah Brogan (9) Kinjal Parikh (19) Charlotte Lawson (36) Anna Aagenes (37) Kimberly Shooshan (46) Carol Xu (52) Erin Comerford (54) 2008 Pre-Nats
28. 794 Penn (22:31.3 112:36.3) ========================================================== 1 54 1146 Leah Brogan 21:19.7 2 123 1144 Anna Aagenes 22:07.3 3 139 1151 Kinjal Parikh 22:15.5 4 226 1150 Charlotte Lawson 23:12.5 5 252 1152 Laura Steel 23:41.3 6 (263) 1147 Erin Comerford 24:08.3 7 (269) 1148 Kellee Hand 24:20.47. Yale (164) Allyson Rinderle (22) Stephanie Pearl (24) Kelli Buck (30) Kathryn Schleckser (40) Claire Leatherwood (48) Alexandra Cadicamo (49) Erin Walsh (50) 8. Dartmouth (219) Aryn Gruneisen (38) Nichole Brown (41) Lauren Campfield (42) Andrea Imhof (47) Laura Tabor (51) Lauren Rosenbaum (53) (only 6 returning finishers) *LetsRun.com NCAA XC Conference Polls from 10/17/08
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