2008 Big East Men's Cross Country Championship Preview

LRC Big East Men's Championship Preview: Hoyas Seek Team And Individual Win After Narrow Loss To Louisville In '07

October 29, 2008
By LetsRun.com
*Disagree with our predictions? Vote in our NCAA Polls (National and Conference Voting) or email us
*LetsRun.com NCAA XC Conference Polls from 10/17/08

Scoring Meet Removing Last Year's Seniors:
1. Georgetown
2. Providence
3. Syracuse
4. Notre Dame
5. Villanova
6. Louisville
7. Marquette
8. Cincinnati
9. Rutgers
10. DePaul
11. Pittsburgh
12. Seton Hall
13. USF
14. Connecticut

2008 PRE NCAA Results Combined Scoring:

1. Providence 648
2. Notre Dame 803
3. Syracuse 941
4. Louisville 1255
5. Cincinnati 1328
6. Marquette 1523

The Big East meet is over, ladies and gentlemen. We declare Georgetown your winner. They have depth, experience, low numbers up front and a pretty small spread 1-7. If they don't take it down, it would be a major, major surprise. The Hoyas are very good and should dominate the league as the league as whole seems to be down for sure this year.

So is the Big East meet going to be a dullaffair not worth watching? Hell, no. Just 2 weeks ago, we felt Syracuse might be a major factor in the Big East, possibly able to upend traditional powers GTown, Providence, Notre Dame and 'Nova. But the Orangemen took a major nose dive at Pre-Nats after crushing Villanova (almost halving their score) at Paul Short 15 days earlier. The 'Cuse ran Pre-Nats without two of their top 5, Jeff Scull and Steve Murdock (he dropped out), but their 15th-place finish was unsettling and precipitated a fall from national rankings (but who cares about rankings anyway?). Another team that took a knock this past weekend was Villanova, which was spanked around at Penn State by Penn State (they're a lot better than some people on the boards have been saying) and GTown (43-126), and almost lost to D3 power Cortland St.! Defeating the #1-ranked team in D3 by 1 point is surely not something 'Nova runners wrote home about. But they need to recover and bring the heat to Big Easts, because we think it's going to be really tight between 2-5. A good performance can get you 2nd, but a sub-par performance will get you 5th.

Syracuse and Villanova didn't have their best this past weekend, so how about Providence and Notre Dame? Well, Providence was a solid 9th in their race with a 5-man average of 24:31 (leader: David McCarthy in 6th), and Notre Dame was 11th with an average of 24:38 (leader: Patrick Smyth in 4th). They're pretty even, but Providence looks a little better based on the fact that we think some of their guys under-performed at Pre-Nats and they still beat the Domers.

If you remember 2007, Louisville was crowned the Big East champions, but they lost their top 2 runners, and without returning studs Cory Thorne and Michael Eaton, they are mediocre at best (read: 21st at Pre-Nats mediocre). So we can't even consider them a top-5 threat unless they have one and preferably both of those guys with Cardinal jerseys on. Without those two, they're looking at 6-8 with Cinci and Marquette fielding capable teams.

As you would expect in the Big East, the individual race looks really interesting. Bumbalough (GTown), Levi Miller (GTown), a surprising Brad Miller (Syr.), David McCarthy (Providence), Patrick Smyth (Notre Dame), Cory Thorne? (Louisville), Hayden McLaren? ('Nova) can all contend. It's not easy to say one of these guys is clearly the favorite. Smyth was third last year behind Bobby Curtis and Wesley Korir, so he is the top returner. But Bumbalough is running great this year, as is sophomore Irishman (an actual Irishman, not a "Fighting Irishman," but a Friar) David McCarthy, who was 6th at Pre-Nats. Also, Brad Miller turned some heads when he bested his more consistent brother Craig at Paul Short and then repeated the feat in Terre Haute, so he is one to watch out for if he's in a groove. Finally, Cory Thorne is a tremendous runner in outstanding fitness (23:45 unattached just a week or so ago in Louisville), but the jury is still out concerning his participation in the Big East meet.

Letsrun.com Big East XC Individual Predictions

1. Andrew Bumbalough

2. Patrick Smyth

3. David McCarthy

4. Levi Miller

5. Brad Miller

6. Hayden McLaren

7. Hugo Beamish

8. Justin Scheid

9. Ayalew Taye

10. Jeff Scull or Dan Busby if healthy?

LetsRun.com Big East Men's Team Predictions:

1. Georgetown

2. Syracuse

3. Providence

4. Notre Dame

5. Villanova

6. Louisville

7. Cincinnati

8. Marquette

9. Rutgers

10. DePaul

11. Seton Hall

12. Pitt

13. UConn

14. USF

2007 Big East XC Men's Results

2007 Big East Team Results

1. Louisville 55

2. Georgetown 60

3. Providence 74

4. Notre Dame 93

5. Syracuse 103

6. Villanova 124

...

Hypothetical results based on returners from 2007 conference meet + selected results from major 2008 meets

In listing a score for the returners, we remove last year's seniors and score the hypothetical meet in a normal fashion; i.e., runners who were outside a team's top 7 last year but move into the top 7 when seniors are removed have been counted as scorers or displacers. Returning runners who remain outside their team's top 7 do not figure into either scoring or displacing and count as extras.

Obviously, some runners listed as retuners will, in fact, not be running this season. New recruits or transfers will also clearly have an immediate impact, as will runners left off of last year's squads who may have improved dramatically this year. These lists are merely a reflection of what the teams' returning conference runners did at last year's meet and how they would have placed if last year's seniors were removed - nothing more, nothing less.

Below each team's returners, the most recent major 2008 results are given (e.g., Pre-Nationals).

1. Georgetown (45)

Andrew Bumbalough (2)
Levi Miller (4)
Justin Scheid (9)
Michael Krisch (13)
Alayew Taye (17)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Penn State National

1. Georgetown
    1  Andrew Bumbalough, Jr       25:10    4:50
    3  Levi Miller, Jr             25:18    4:52
    9  Justin Scheid, Sr           25:28    4:54
   12  Ayalew Taye, So             25:31    4:54
   18  Michael Banks, Sr           25:38    4:56
   30  James Grimes, So            25:58    4:59
   31  Brandon Bonsey, Sr          25:58    5:00
Time = 2:07:03     Places = 43

  1   Georgetown               43    1    3    9   12   18   30   31   25:25        28
  2   Penn State               93    5   19   20   24   25   27   40   25:43        31
  3   Villanova               126    4   15   17   41   49   86   89   25:48        59

2. Providence (93)

Hayden McLaren (7)
David McCarthy (10)
Michael Anderson (12)
Richie Yeates (26)
Tom Webb (38)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

9. 321 Providence (24:31.3 122:36.5)

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1 6 1215 David McCarthy 23:40.8

2 46 1216 Hayden McLaren 24:25.1

3 81 1220 Richard Yeates 24:46.1

4 93 1214 Dominic Channon 24:51.7

5 95 1219 Tom Webb 24:52.8

6 (153) 1213 Lee Carey 25:20.1

7 (185) 1210 Michael Anderson 25:35.2

3. Syracuse (93)

Jeff Scull (6)
Dan Busby (8)
Brad Miller (19)
Steve Murdock (23)
Jay Koloseus (37)
Michael Brocks (40)
Robert Cary (56)

2008 Pre-Nats

15. 467 Syracuse (24:48.1 124:00.3)

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1 17 1337 Brad Miller 24:02.1

2 40 1335 Jay Koloseus 24:21.4

3 120 1332 Dan Busby 25:05.1

4 130 1342 Steven Weeks 25:08.0

5 160 1336 Tito Medrano 25:23.7

6 (198) 1739 Griff Graves 25:42.2

2008 Paul Short

2. Syracuse
  562     5  Brad Miller, Jr             23:58    4:50
  555     8  Daniel Busby, Jr            24:02    4:51
  559    12  Jay Koloseus, Jr            24:07    4:52
  566    24  Jeff Scull, Sr              24:23    4:55
  561    47  Tito Medrano, Fr            24:41    4:58
  563    62  Steve Murdock, So           24:50    5:00
  558   124  Griff Graves, Fr            25:24    5:07
Time = 2:01:09  
  Places = 96

3. Villanova
  649     6  Hugo Bemish, So             24:00    4:50
  653    28  Dan Lewis, Jr               24:25    4:55
  650    33  Keith Capecci, So           24:28    4:56
  654    41  Carl Mackenzie, So          24:36    4:58
  651    65  Stephen Curley, Sr          24:52    5:01
  652   159  Ben Guest, So               25:45    5:11
Time = 2:02:20     Places = 173

4. Notre Dame (98)

Patrick Smyth (1)
Jake Walker (14)
Dan Jackson (18)
Paul Springer (31)
Chris Rodriguez (34)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

11. 401 Notre Dame (24:38.4 123:11.7)

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1 4 1044 Patrick Smyth 23:38.3

2 47 1043 Joe Miller 24:25.5

3 101 1045 Paul Springer 24:55.9

4 112 1047 Jake Walker 25:02.6

5 137 1040 Dan Jackson 25:09.4

6 (161) 1041 Ryan Jacobs 25:24.0

7 (217) 1039 Ryan Gamboa 25:55.2

5. Villanova (124)

Bobby Papazian (15)
Brian Long (22)
Keith Capecci (25)
Hugo Beamish (27)
Steve Curley (35)
Daniel Lewis (47)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Penn State Open

3. Villanova
    4  Hugo Beamish, So            25:19    4:52
   15  Keith Capecci, So           25:36    4:55
   17  Daniel Lewis, Jr            25:37    4:56
   41  Carl Mackenzie, Fr          26:10    5:02
   49  Steven Curley, Sr           26:17    5:03
   86  Rudy Belko, Jr              26:46    5:09
   89  Chris Williams, Fr          26:50    5:09
Time = 2:08:57     Places = 126

4. Cortland State
   16  Shamus
Nally, Sr            25:37    4:55
   22  Josh Henry, Sr              25:50    4:58
   23  Seth Dubois, Jr             25:51    4:58
   32  Justin Wager, Jr            26:02    5:00
   34  Jerry Greenlaw, Jr          26:03    5:00
   53  Kyle O'Brien, Jr            26:21    5:04
   69  Stephen Scrafford, So       26:33    5:06
Time = 2:09:20     Places = 127

  1   Georgetown               43    1    3    9   12   18   30   31   25:25        28
  2   Penn State               93    5   19   20   24   25   27   40   25:43        31
  3   Villanova               126    4   15   17   41   49   86   89   25:48        59

6. Louisville (98)

Cory Thorne (3)
Michael Eaton (5)
Scott McClain (16)
Matt Smith (29)
Ken Prater (45)
Abraham Busienei (78)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

21. 628 Louisville (25:07.2 125:35.7)

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1 67 719 Matt Hughes 24:38.4

2 90 721 Scott McClain 24:48.5

3 111 715 Matt Bruce 24:59.6

4 161 720 Luke Lovelace 25:22.6

5 199 724 Chase Violet 25:46.6

6 (247) 722 Matt Smith 26:37.4

7 (255) 717 Gordon Dooley 27:09.9

7. Marquette (183)

Nick Szczech (20)
Brice Cleland (21)
Mark Kopecki (43)
Peter Bolgert (48)
Drew Craig (51)
Steve Briggs (67)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

30. 770 Marquette (25:22.2 126:50.6)

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1 63 767 Kyle Saginus 24:35.5

2 104 760 Brice Cleland 24:57.6

3 171 769 Nick Szczech 25:28.7

4 203 762 Blake Johnson 25:44.8

5 229 761 Drew Craig 26:04.0

6 (247) 768 Keith Schueller 26:15.6

7 (259) 764 Mark Kopecki 26:44.8

8. Cincinnati (171)

Randy King (24)
Tommy Morgan (30)
Rick King (36)
Bill Keckeis (39)
Kyle Dragon (42)
Ricky Lupp (52)
David Barry (55)

2008 Pre-Nats

25. 661 Cincinnati (25:10.0 125:50.0)

==========================================================

1 121 239 William Keckeis 25:04.1

2 125 242 Rick King 25:07.2

3 127 241 Randy King 25:08.6

4 129 246 Tommy Morgan 25:09.6

5 159 237 Kyle Dragan 25:20.5

6 (171) 240 Solomon Kessio 25:30.6

7 (193) 243 Kyle Lang 25:41.0

9. Rutgers (244)

Simon Gordonov (41)
Kevin Cronin (44)
Nick Miehe (49)
Brandon Smith (50)
Mike Crum (60)
Matt Poskus (70)
Jayram Sataluri (72)

10. DePaul (264)

Nick Schaefer (32)
Jakub Kolacz (46)
Jeremy Applebaum (58)
Luke Rygh (62)
Michael Fry (66)
Greg Udzielak (69)
Ryan Solomon (74)

11. Pittsburgh (269)

Joshua Christopher (33)
Teddy Miller (53)
Sam Weiser (59)
Eric Burnett (61)
Kyle Kaminski (63)
Lane King (64)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Paul Short:

24 Pitt 643 67 99 142 146 189 204 209 25:27 1:11

12. Seton Hall (296)

Pawel Kornaszewski (28)
Terrance Gallogly (54)
Thomas Corona (65)
Robert Novak (73)
Justin McKenzie (76)
Patrick Nickerson (79)
Patrick McGovern (80)

13. USF (386)

Pedro Carela (71)
Michael Parsons (75)
Ryan Courtoy (77)
Michael Rodriguez (81)
Joe Mormon (82)
Marvin Tador (83)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Paul Short

41 S Florida 1178 188 199 221 279 291 295 296 27:07 2:53

14. Connecticut (incomplete score)

Will Sanders (11)
Scott Johnson (57)
Mike Rutt (68)
(only 3 returning finishers)

Pre-Nationals Combined Results

21. Providence 648
25. Notre Dame 803
31. Syracuse 941
45. Louisville 1,255
49. Cincinnati 1,328
60. Marquette 1,523

*Disagree with our predictions? Vote in our NCAA Polls (National and Conference Voting) or email us
*LetsRun.com NCAA XC Conference Polls from 10/17/08