Letsrun.com Big 12 Women's XC Championship Preview:
Sally Kipyego and Texas Tech to clash withJenny Barringer and Colorado
or... CHANGING OF THE GUARD: Texas Tech to assume throne, tossing aside the incumbent Colorado Buffaloes (fluke or start of a trend?)
or... New power on the rise! Read it here first: Baylor coach Todd Harbour for Big12 XC Coach of the Year as his girls pull huge upset at Big12s.
Colorado's Olympian Jenny Barringer is not racing this XC season, andLisa Kollhasn't laced them up yet for Iowa State. So it's all there for Sally Kipyego and Texas Tech, as they look to romp to the Big 12 title, their first ever. Tech finished second last year to Colorado, but this year they should upend the Buffaloes, as they have a stronger team behind their ace and reigning NCAA XC champion Kipyego. The Big 12 meet began in 1996, and 11 out of the first 12 titles have gone to CU. But this time, they have absolutely no shot unless some stars come out of the woodwork in the next few days. We think they will finish as low as 5th without Barringer and Sara Vaughan.
The Lady Red Raiders are led by 2-time NCAA and 2-time Big 12 Champion Sally Kipyego, but they have some solid depth this year. They shone brightly at Chile Pepper, with Lillian Badaru and Gladys Kipsang finishing in the top 10, and field solid 4-5 runners. We'll save praise and analysis of Kipyego for later in the year, when the attention will be squarely on her as she goes for an NCAA 3-peat. If any team has a chance to beat Tech (and we believe they do), it seems to be the Baylor Bear team. Baylor finished 7th at Pre-Nats with a veteran group led by Erin Bedell (she nabbed 7th) and two others who finished in the top 20. Baylor, of the 12 teams, returned the 7th-fewest points, and the Lady Bears are currently running essentially the same runners from last year (only their 7th runner at Pre-Nationals did not run at Big 12s for them last year), yet they may win the title this year. Todd Harbour is doing a fantastic job developing his girls and should be in the running for regional and national coach of the year.
After the top 2, the question becomes, will Colorado be able to defeat Oklahoma St. or Nebraska? Both of those teams crushed Colorado at Pre-Nats. History says "yes" (history can talk?) because Mark Wetmore gets his teams running well when it counts, especially after they previously looked down for the count. We'll have some fun and predict a Cornhusker/Cowboy day, plummeting the mighty Boulder women down to a previously unthinkable 5th place finish at Big 12s.
LRCBig 12 Women's Team Predictions
1. Baylor (love it when those 4th and 5th runners win you the title!)
2. Texas Tech (don't worry, we might be wrong)
3. Nebraska
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Colorado
6. Texas
7. Texas A&M
8. Iowa St.
...
* There is no way to tell who Colorado and Iowa St. are going to run, but we invite you to criticize our order of finish. Obviously, Koll will be right up there, probably 2nd, if she runs. In reality, we are really doing 2 things: predicting the order of finish, and predicting which All-Americans/Olympians/NCAA record holders are actually going to run.
Hypothetical results based on returners from 2007 conference meet + selected results from major 2008 meets
In listing a score for the returners, we remove last year's seniors and score the hypothetical meet in a normal fashion; i.e., runners who were outside a team's top 7 last year but move into the top 7 when seniors are removed have been counted as scorers or displacers. Returning runners who remain outside their team's top 7 do not figure into either scoring or displacing and count as extras.
Obviously, some runners listed as retuners will, in fact, not be running this season. New recruits or transfers will also clearly have an immediate impact, as will runners left off of last year's squads who may have improved dramatically this year. These lists are merely a reflection of what the teams' returning conference runners did at last year's meet and how they would have placed if last year's seniors were removed - nothing more, nothing less.
Below each team's returners, the most recent major 2008 results are given (e.g., Pre-Nationals).
Jennifer Barringer (2) *not running Sara Vaughan (5) *no longer at CU Laura Thweatt (14) Aislinn Ryan (18) Jen Hooper (29) Anna Chase (35) Allison Sawyer (37)
