Big 10 Women's Cross Country Championship Preview

LRC Big 10 Women's Cross Country Championship* Preview:

October 29, 2008
By LetsRun.com
*Disagree with our predictions? Vote in our NCAA Polls (National and Conference Voting) or email us
*LetsRun.com NCAA XC Conference Polls from 10/17/08

Please, Mr/Mrs. Athletic Director, I know we were only 7th in XC, but I still deserve to keep my job, we're #20 in the country!
or
Gophers go-pher repeat of 2007's 1-point victory!
or
Amazing, double-amazing 4-team (or should we say 7-team?) race set up for women's Big 10 Champs!

*2007 Women's Big Ten XC Championship Results

Teams in contention: #7 Minnesota, #8 Michigan, #9 Michigan St., #10 Illinois
Teams not that far off: #16 Wisconsin, #19 Penn State, #21 Iowa
"The rest" for this year: Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana and Ohio State

*LRC Pick for "Most hotly contested league meet 1-7 in the country!" Go see it: Sunday, November 2 at 10:45am; Ann Arbor, Michigan.

The 2008 edition of the Big 10 women's cross-country championships really is a race that is worthy of three titles as this conference is insane. 7 teams are ranked in the top 21 in the country.

Scoring Meet Removing Last Year's Seniors:
1. Michigan State (56)
2. Minnesota (63)
3. Illinois (80)
4. Michigan (102)
5. Wisconsin (112)
6. Penn State (130)
7. Iowa (199)
8. Purdue (208)
9. Indiana (255)
10. Northwestern (284)
11. Ohio State (307)

PRE NCAA Results Combined Scoring:
(Overall Place), School, Team Score
1 (5) Michigan 370 points
2 (6) Minnesota 379
3 (7) Michigan St. 385
4 (9) Illinois 405
5 (13) Wisconsin 458
6 (16) Iowa 550

Crunching numbers just for a second, one finds that among the teams ranked between #7 and #21 in the country (of which there are 15), 7 of them are from the Big Ten. Four of them are ranked consecutively: 7, 8, 9, 10. Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan St., Illinois and Wisconsin had top 5 averages at Pre-Nats between 21:03 and 21:10. This should come as no surprise, as last year, Minnesota won with 72 points, the Lady Spartans had 73, and 6th place went to Wisconsin's Bucky Badger with 112. Only 40 points separated 1st from 6th ... that is a great and deep meet.

There is a lot to potentially discuss here, but the great thing about this meet is that the running will be way better than the talking. There is no way to distinguish which team will run best at Big 10s. Every team has at least 4 out of their top 7 from last year returning, so they all have championship experience. Every team has run against top competition this year and has run their best runners. Every team looks to be healthy and in top form heading into the championship season. So we'll just go straight to our predictions. This meet is incredibly tight:

LRC's Complete Guesses For The Team Chase:

1. Michigan (to make up for their football team this year)

2. Minnesota (Gophers have the best pack, no really low sticks)

3. Michigan St. (Spartans are game, but loses by a max of 10)

4. Illinois (best team ever to get 4th in their conference?)

5. Wisconsin (you'll get 'em next year, Bucky)

6. Penn State (fight on State)

7. Iowa (Hawkeyes are probably the best-ever 7th-place conference finisher)

...

LRC Individual Top 10: (note Michigan, Michigan St. and Illinois coincidentally all score combined 10 with their top 2 runners)

1. Nicole Edwards (MICH)

2. Katie Engel (ILL)

3. Nicole Bush (MSU)

4. Bridget Franek (PSU)

5. Gwen Jorgensen (WIS)

6. Rachel Marcheand (IOWA)

7. Lisa Senakiewich (MSU)

8. Angela Bizzarri (ILL)

9. Alyson Kohlmeier (MICH)

10. Megan Duwell (MINN)

2007 Big Ten Women's Team Results

1. Minnesota 72

2. Michigan State 73

3. Michigan 90

4. Illinois 95

5. Iowa 103

6. Wisconsin 112

7. Penn State 159

Hypothetical results based on returners from 2007 conference meet + selected results from major 2008 meets

In listing a score for the returners, we remove last year's seniors and score the hypothetical meet in a normal fashion; i.e., runners who were outside a team's top 7 last year but move into the top 7 when seniors are removed have been counted as scorers or displacers. Returning runners who remain outside their team's top 7 do not figure into either scoring or displacing and count as extras.

Obviously, some runners listed as returners will, in fact, not be running this season. New recruits or transfers will also clearly have an immediate impact, as will runners left off of last year's squads who may have improved dramatically this year. These lists are merely a reflection of what the teams' returning conference runners did at last year's meet and how they would have placed if last year's seniors were removed - nothing more, nothing less.

Below we have each team's hypothetical score and individual places based on last year's conference meet removing last year's seniors. Underneath that we have the most recent major 2008 results (e.g., Pre-Nationals).

1. Michigan State (56)

Nicole Bush (1)
Alissa McKaig (6)
Lisa Senakiewich (8)
Sarah Price (15)
Becky McCormack (26)
Emily MacLeod (36)
Leah Elenbaas (43)

2008 Pre-Nats

4.   215 Michigan State                              (21:03.0 105:15.0)
==========================================================
1      6    819 Nicole Bush          20:19.1
2     17    828 Lisa Senakiewich     20:38.7
3     50    822 Carlie Green         21:17.5
4     69    824 Emily MacLeod        21:28.9
5     73    827 Sarah Price          21:30.8
6   ( 74)   818 Tiffany Abrahamian   21:31.6
  7   ( 99)   825 Becky McCormack      21:51.6

2. Minnesota (63)

Gabriele Anderson (10)
Elizabeth Yetzer (11)
Jaime Cheever (12)
Heather Dorniden (13)
Sally Paulson (17)
Mallory VanNess (21)
Megan Duwell (23)

2008 Pre-Nats

  3.   198 Minnesota                                   (21:09.5 105:47.1)
> ==========================================================
> 1     18    846 Megan Duwell         20:45.2
> 2     40    842 Gabriele Anderson    21:13.1
> 3     42    849 Felicitas Mensing    21:13.9
> 4     46    852 Mallory Van Ness     21:16.5
> 5     52    847 Amy Laskowske        21:18.4
> 6   ( 70)   843 Jamie Cheever        21:29.0
> 7   ( 81)   845 Heather Dorniden     21:36.9

3. Illinois (80)

Angela Bizzarri (2)
Katie Engel (9)
Danelle Woods (18)
Stephanie Baliga (20)
Chantelle Groenewoud (31)
Theresa Brokaw (33)
Shannon Phelan (38)

2008 Pre-Nats

  4.   186 Illinois                                     ( 21:06 1:45:28)
==========================================================
1      3    528 Katie Engel            20:23
2     13    525 Angela Bizzarri        20:47
3     29    531 Kristin Sutherland     21:04
4     64    529 Chantelle Groenewoud   21:33
5     77    526 Elizabeth Boyle        21:41
6   (111)   527 Theresa Brokaw         22:01
7   (191)   523 Stephanie Baliga       22:48

4. Michigan (102)

Nicole Edwards (5)
Geena Gall (16)
Jennifer Morgan (24)
Kelly Sampson (27)
Eileen Creutz (30)
Katie Williams (39)
Danielle Tauro (40)

2008 Pre-Nats

  3.   168 Michigan                                    ( 21:04 1:45:17)
==========================================================
1      2    794 Nicole Edwards         20:21
2     15    796 Alyson Kohlmeier       20:47
3     34    804 Danielle Tauro         21:10
4     55    795 Geena Gall             21:26
5     62    802 Kelly Sampson          21:33
6   ( 74)   798 Jennifer Morgan        21:39
7   (163)   797 Lisa Montgomery        22:28

5. Wisconsin (112)

Hanna Grinaker (3)
Gwen Jorgensen (14)
Cassie Hintz (28)
Leah Coyle (32)
Sarah Hurley (35)
Maggie Collison (49)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

6.   247 Wisconsin                                   (21:10.6 105:52.7)
==========================================================
1      7   1719 Gwen Jorgensen       20:19.3
  2     36   1717 Hanna Grinaker       21:08.3
3     59   1713 Caitlin Comfort      21:23.5
4     62   1711 Ashley Beutler       21:23.9
5     83   1714 Leah Coyle           21:37.7
6   (176) 1710 Alyssa Beste         22:34.2
7   (179) 1718 Sarah Hurley         22:36.2

6. Penn State (130)

Bridget Franek (4)
Cheryl Spring (22)
Leah Rosenfeld (29)
Claire Berryman (34)
Claire Percival (41)
Meghan Noecker (48)
Kathryn Fitzgerald (50)

2008 Penn State National

2. Penn State
    4    3  Bridget Franek, Jr*, Penn State             20:20  
   13    4  Cheryl Spring, Jr*, Penn State              21:04 
   20    5  Leah Rosenfeld, So*, Penn State             21:10  
   22    6  Claire Percival, Sr*, Penn State            21:12  
   24    5  Kara Millhouse, Fr*, Penn State             21:14  
   37   11  Janelle Young, Sr*, Penn State              21:28  
   43    8  Caitlin Lane, Fr*, Penn State               21:42

7. Iowa (199)

Jolly Burke (7)
Krista Anderson (42)
Lauren Hardesty (44)
Amanda Hardesty (45)
Katie Ellis (61)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

9.   283 Iowa                                        (21:17.8 106:28.7)
==========================================================
1     11    619 Racheal Marchand     20:27.9
2     34    614 Brooke Eilers        21:06.7
3     39    621 Sarah Perry          21:12.5
4     82    616 Betsy Flood          21:37.3
5    117    618 Lauren Hardesty      22:04.3
6   (158)   615 Fionna Fallon        22:24.0
7   (180)   617 Amanda Hardesty      22:36.6

8. Purdue (208)

Katie Morrical (19)
Kristin Phillips (37)
Kristina Krasich (46)
Erin Ragouzis (52)
Danielle Ginther (54)
Sarah Klaczynski (69)
Jennifer Hall (70)

2008 Pre-Nats

28.   654 Purdue                                      ( 22:11 1:50:52)
==========================================================
1     23   1231 Katie Morrical         20:59
2     81   1232 Kristin Phillips       21:43
3    177   1227 Kristina Krasich       22:40
4    184   1224 Danielle Eagan         22:43
5    189   1230 Lynn Marsh             22:47
6   (190) 1221 Stephanie Bonk         22:47
7   (244) 1229 Ashlee Lengacher       23:46

9. Indiana (255)

Sarah Pease (25)
Caity Lauer (53)
Natalie Goolik (56)
Kristina Trcka (57)
Lauren Keefe (64)
Jenny Kulow (66)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

14.   438 Indiana                                     (21:40.5 108:22.3)
==========================================================
1     23    577 Wendi Robinson       20:52.5
2     78    576 Sarah Pease          21:34.1
3     90    578 Kristina Trcka       21:43.3
4    104    569 Chelsea Blanchard    21:54.7
5    143    575 Caity Lauer          22:17.7
6   (216)   570 Kaylan Comer         22:59.4
7   (276)   572 Breanne Ehrman       25:30.1

10. Northwestern (284)

Allison King (47)
Paulina Garcia (51)
Britta Helwig (55)
Marcellee Fullwood (60)
Maddie Rozwat (71)
Carly Brown (72)
Megan Young (73)

2008 Pre-Nats

31.   787 Northwestern                                ( 22:33 1:52:42)
==========================================================
1     78   1012 Carly Brown            21:41
2    107   1016 Marcellee Fullwood     21:59
3    165   1015 Sophie Ewald           22:31
4    218   1013 Hallie Busta           23:15
5    219   1019 Rachel Kaminski        23:16
6   (233) 1014 Rachel Edwards         23:34
  7   (242) 1022 Abby Tracy             23:41

11. Ohio State (307)

Ashley Chirco (58)
Ellen Birmingham (59)
Brittany Wise (62)
Kesha Brooks (63)
Rachel Stichter (65)
Jordan Jennawine (67)
Emily Thompson (68)

2008 Pre-Nats

35.   879 Ohio State                                  ( 22:46 1:53:47)
==========================================================
1    101   1073 Sarah Foster           21:56
2    132   1078 Emily Thompson         22:10
3    209   1071 Birmingham Ellen       23:08
4    214   1079 Brittany Wise          23:11
5    223   1077 Sarah Lowe             23:22
6   (232) 1080 Sarah Yerkey           23:31
  7   (238) 1074 Jordan Jennewine       23:40

Pre-Nationals combined results

5. Michigan 370 points
6. Minnesota 379
7. Michigan St. 385
9. Illinois 405
13. Wisconsin 458
16. Iowa 550