Teams (with current rankings): #6 Wisconsin, #19 Indiana, #9 Michigan, #20 Minnesota, Ohio State, #34 Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois, Penn State, Purdue
 

Wisconsin entered the year as the Big Ten favorites (as they seem to do every year) and have not done anything to disprove that prediction in our minds. They controlled a huge field at Paul Short (without running 4 returners from the top 10 in last year's Big 10 Champs) and other than that meet have not shown us much, hiding their cards in September and October as usual*. Assuming Matt Withrow, Stuart Eagon and Andrew Lacy are healthy and competing (or even just 2 of them), Wisconsin will win as they have 5 returners from last year's top 10 at Big Tens (see top 10 below).  Editor's Note: We originally talked here about  Brandon Bethke who we have learned has transferred to ASU, so he may be healthy but he won't help the Badgers.

For second stair on the podium, Michigan has a squad which is much improved over last year's and ran superbly in Terre Haute to take 3rd in their section. Craig Forys and Ciaran O'Lionaird are likely top 10s in the championship meet, and their depth is solid. They should jump up to number 2, but will still be far off of Wisconsin in our minds.

Scoring Meet Removing Last Year's Seniors: 1. Wisconsin (29) 2. Indiana (79) 2. Michigan (84) 3. Minnesota (87) 4. Indiana (79) (we have taken out IU's transfers who left) 5. Ohio State (141) 6. Michigan State (186) 7. Iowa (190) 8. Illinois (205) 9. Penn State (224) 10. Purdue (256)

PRE NCAA Results Combined Scoring: (Overall Place), Team Score, School 1 (5) Michigan 309 points 2 (12) Indiana 422 3 (14) Minnesota 470 4 (24) Michigan St. 772 5 (34) Iowa 1,025 6 (37) Ohio St. 1,051 7 (58) Illinois 1,512 8 (79) Purdue 2,337

At numbers 3 and 4, look for Minnesota and Indiana to battle a really close one. Minnesota is led by Hassan Mead, 3rd in his section in 23:33 in Terre Haute and 2nd at last year's Big 10 meet, and Chris Rombough (4th last year). Indiana, on the other hand, had a tight 21-second spread between their top 5 at Pre-Nats and could top Minnesota if their pack gets far enough ahead of Minnesota's 3, 4 or 5. At Pre-Nats, Indiana's 5th man beat out Minnesota's 3rd. It's going to be really tight between the Hoosiers and the Golden Gophers; we'll give the edge to Indiana's pack.

Behind those teams, the big mover of the year has to be Penn State, 9th at last year's championships. Their performance at home last weekend was impressive, as they mixed in with Georgetown and crushed Villanova, though they were defeated by the Hoyas. We think their tight pack may be able to sneak up to take down a solid Michigan State team, plus Ohio State, especially if the Buckeyes are without returning All- Big 10 Performer Jeff See. We'll give a shout out to the tight pack running of Michigan St. at Pre-Nationals and we'll give them the edge over PSU and Ohio St., in that order.

Support the sport! Go see the Big 10 Championships! November 2, 2008 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Women start at 10:45.

*Was this a pre-requisite for the Wisco job? You had to have experience holding out your entire top 5 until the conference meet, if not the regional meet, if not the national meet? We kid. We are aware that the pre-requisite was being a kick-ass coach and recruiter, which Mick Byrne definitely is.

LRC predicts it's going to look like this team-wise:

1. Wisconsin (10 in a row)

2. Michigan (easily 2nd, but way behind Wisco)

3. Indiana (their pack negates the two low sticks of Minnesota)

4. Minnesota (2 in the top 5 but their 3-7 hurt them)

5. Michigan State

6. Penn State (good improvement for the Nittany Lions, but not quite in the upper half of the league yet)

7. Ohio State (not a banner year for the Buckeyes)

8. Iowa (solid team, could be higher)

9. Illinois (vastly under-performed at Pre-Nationals considering their talent)

10. Purdue (39th at Pre-Nats ... we hope that was their JV)

11. Northwestern: Boo you for not having a XC team, shouldn't the Big 10 have 11 teams in every sport?

1. Hassan Mead (MIN - battle tested)

2. Matt Withrow (WIS - this would be an upset ... we know)

3. Chris Rombough (MIN)

4. Stuart Eagon (WIS)

5. Ciaran O'Lionaird (MICH)

6. Landon Peacock (WIS)

7. Craig Forys (MICH)

8. Christian Wagner (WIS)

9. Brandon Bethke (WIS) He's transferred to ASU

10. Kyle Dawson (PSU)

1.	Matt Withrow, Wisconsin	23:44.37
2.	Hassan Mead, Minnesota	23:47.70
3	Trent Hoerr, Illinois	23:49.39
4.	Chris Rombough, Minnesota	23:54.48
5.	Stuart Eagon, Wisconsin	23:55.35
6.	Jeff See, Ohio State	23:56.43
7.	Craig Forys, Michigan	23:56.77
8.	Andrew Lacy, Wisconsin	23:58.10
9.	Landon Peacock, Wisconsin	24:01.84
10.	Brandon Bethke, Wisconsin	24:03.17

Hypothetical results based on returners from 2007 conference meet + selected results from major 2008 meets

In listing a score for the returners, we remove last year's seniors and score the hypothetical meet in a normal fashion; i.e., runners who were outside a team's top 7 last year but move into the top 7 when seniors are removed have been counted as scorers or displacers. Returning runners who remain outside their team's top 7 do not figure into either scoring or displacing and count as extras.

Obviously, some runners listed as returners will, in fact, not be running this season. New recruits or transfers will also clearly have an immediate impact, as will runners left off of last year's squads who may have improved dramatically this year. These lists are merely a reflection of what the teams' returning conference runners did at last year's meet and how they would have placed if last year's seniors were removed - nothing more, nothing less.

Below we have each team's hypothetical score and individual places based on last year's conference meet removing last year's seniors. Underneath that we have the most recent major 2008 results (e.g., Pre-Nationals).

1. Wisconsin (29)

Matt Withrow (1)
Stuart Eagon (4)
Andrew Lacy (7)
Landon Peacock (8)
Brandon Bethke (9)
Christian Wagner (13)
Jack Bolas (14)

2008 Paul Short

1. Wisconsin
  673     3  Landon Peacock, So          23:46    4:47
  677     4  Christial Wagner, Sr        23:48    4:48
  672     7  Craig Miller, Jr            24:01    4:50
  670    17  Ryan Gasper, Jr             24:15    4:53
  671    21  Elliot Krause, Fr           24:18    4:54
  676    35  Craven Ryan, So             24:28    4:56
  668    36  Jack Bolas, So              24:30    4:56

2. Indiana (79) 116 (once take out transfers)
Cole Hardacre (10)
Jordan Kyle (11) Transferred to Colorado
Tim McLeod (16)
Ben Hubers (19)
Brennon Plotner (23)
Mark Fruin (28) Transferred to NAU
Jacob Rich (48)

2008 Pre-Nats

8.   219  Indiana                                     (24:20.7  121:43.3)
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  1     30    585 Brennon Plotner      24:10.9
  2     31    581 Ben Hubers           24:12.4
  3     45    584 Timothy McLeod       24:22.1
  4     53    586 Andrew Poore         24:26.4
  5     60    580 Cole Hardacre        24:31.5
  6   (124)   582 Jacob Laird          25:05.7
  7   (163)   588 Andrew Weatherford   25:24.6

3. Michigan (84)

Craig Forys (6)
Sean McNamara (12)
Brandon Fellows (17)
John Black (20)
Ciaran O'Lionaird (29)
Lex Williams (34)
Victor Gras (36)

2008 Pre-Nats

3.   146  Michigan                                    (24:09.7  120:48.1)
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  1     10    814 Ciaran O'Lionaird    23:50.6
  2     14    811 Craig Forys          23:55.2
  3     30    810 Brandon Fellows      24:11.3
  4     42    815 Justin Switzer       24:23.6
  5     50    817 Lex Williams         24:27.4
  6   ( 60)   808 Peter Christmas      24:34.4
  7   ( 74)   816 Seth Thibodeau       24:42.3

4. Minnesota (87)

Hassan Mead (2)
Chris Rombough (3)
Ben Puhl (25)
Mike McFarland (26)
Ben Kampf (31)
Matt Barrett (37)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

5.   234  Minnesota                                   (24:17.6  121:27.7)
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  1      3    858 Hassan Mead          23:33.1
  2      8    861 Chris Rombough       23:47.3
  3     67    862 Mike Torchia         24:38.3
  4     72    859 Sean Olson           24:41.2
  5     84    855 Ben Blankenship      24:47.8
  6   (118)   856 Ben Kampf            25:04.7
  7   (125)   857 Mike McFarland       25:06.8

5. Ohio State (141)

Jeff See (5)
Taylor Candella (24)
Chad Balyo (27)
Christopher Olinger (40)
Andrew Arnio (45)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

21.   527  Ohio State                                  (24:56.1  124:40.5)
==========================================================
  1     44   1092 Taylor Williams      24:24.3
  2     91   1088 Christopher Olinger  24:51.2
  3    115   1081 Andy Arnio           25:04.0
  4    132   1086 Adam Green           25:08.2
  5    145   1082 Taylor Candella      25:12.8

6. Michigan State (186)

Dustin Voss (32)
Patrick Grosskopf (35)
Max Goldak (38)
Michael Quick (39)
Spencer Beatty (42)
Amol Hupriker (43)
Bill Peterson (50)

2008 Pre-Nats

14.   392  Michigan State                              (24:43.3  123:36.1)
==========================================================
  1     56    835 Patrick Grosskopf    24:28.3
  2     76    832 Joseph Dimambro      24:42.6
  3     80    840 Adam Sprangel        24:44.2
  4     83    836 Shane Knoll          24:47.3
  5     97    830 Spencer Beatty       24:53.7
  6   (147)   841 Dustin Voss          25:17.1
  7   (208)   834 Max Goldak           25:53.2

7. Iowa (190)

Jesse Luciano (15)
Andrew Napier (30)
Thomas Tate (41)
Mark Battista (47)
Brendan Camplin (57)
Jay Renaud (58)
Bob Ingram (59)

2008 Pre-Nats

 18.   512  Iowa                                        (24:55.4  124:36.6)
==========================================================
  1     55    628 Jesse Luciano        24:31.0
  2     79    630 Eric MacTaggart      24:45.7
  3     89    631 Andy Napier          24:50.4
  4    138    623 Sam Bailin           25:10.3
  5    151    634 Tommy Tate           25:19.2
  6   (156)   625 Brendan Camplin      25:21.4
  7   (172)   624 Mark Battista        25:29.0

8. Illinois (205)

Jeremy Stevens (18)
Jacob Nachel (22)
Jared Richardson (51)
Tim Maier (53)
Michael Murray (61)
Ryne Beeson (66)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

28.   745  Illinois                                     (25:19.8  126:38.8)
==========================================================
  1     99    542 Jeremy Stevens       24:54.3
  2    135    537 Colin Mickow         25:11.6
  3    136    538 Hunter Mickow        25:12.0
  4    179    539 Mike Murray          25:35.2
  5    196    536 Dan Kremske          25:45.7
  6   (221)   543 Nathan Troester      26:07.2

9. Penn State (224)

Tyler McCandless (33)
Brian Fuller (44)
Dennis O'Connor (46)
Lucas Zarzeczny (49)
Dennis Pollow (52)
John Mahoney (55)
Tim Johnson (60)

2008 Penn State National

1. Georgetown
    1  Andrew Bumbalough, Jr       25:10    4:50
    3  Levi Miller, Jr             25:18    4:52
    9  Justin Scheid, Sr           25:28    4:54
   12  Ayalew Taye, So             25:31    4:54
   18  Michael Banks, Sr           25:38    4:56
   30  James Grimes, So            25:58    4:59
   31  Brandon Bonsey, Sr          25:58    5:00
Time = 2:07:03     Places = 43
 
2. Penn State
    5  Kyle Dawson                 25:24    4:53
   19  Tyler McCandless, Sr        25:39    4:56
   20  John Mahoney, Sr            25:47    4:57
   24  Vince McNally, Fr           25:52    4:58
   25  Brian Fuller, Sr            25:54    4:59
   27  Dennis O'Connor, Sr         25:56    4:59
   40  Teddy Quinn, Sr             26:09    5:02
Time = 2:08:34     Places = 93

10. Purdue (256)

Matt DeSilva (21)
Jacob Laird (54)
Robert Shiflet (56)
George Noah (62)
Matt Clifford (63)
Steve Swank (64)
Alex Folk (65)

2008 Pre-Nats

39.  1141  Purdue                                      (26:15.7  131:18.2)
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  1    206   1233 Cale Allen           25:52.7
  2    220   1237 Chase Kaufman        26:05.4
  3    235   1243 Robert Shiflett      26:21.2
  4    237   1238 Ladd Mercer          26:25.2
  5    243   1240 Stephen O'Donnell    26:33.7
  6   (253)  1241 Andrew Prieshoff     26:56.1
  7   (263)  1234 Dominic Desantis     28:08.8