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LRC ACC Men's XC Championship Preview

October 29, 2008

By LetsRun.com
*Disagree with our predictions? Vote in our NCAA Polls (National and Conference Voting) or email us
*LetsRun.com NCAA XC Conference Polls from 10/17/08

Coach Vig and UVA Look To Take Down Charging Florida State In Another Close Conference Battle
Teams:#14 Virginia, Duke, #15 Florida State, #29 NC State, Va. Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Wake Forest, UNC, BC, Georgia Tech, Miami

Editor's Note: This article has been updated from it's original format with added information about Luke Gunn, which changed our prediction as well.

The ACC in 2007 was a 2-horse race between NC State and Virginia, with the two teams combining for 10 of the first 13 finishers in the race. UVA rode a 2, 3, 4, 6 performance to take down State 32-39, despite the Wolfpack landing 6 runners in the top 13 of the race. State's top 4 all graduated, and UVA lost 2 out of their top 4, so 2008 will feature a vastly different cast of characters up front. Jason Vigilante, in his first year as the head man at UVA, has his boys running well (even without Emil Heineking) as their runners clumped between 20th and 50th place in their Pre-Nationals race, garnering a 6th-place finish and #14 national ranking. But it looks like the Cavaliers are going to have another really tight battle at conference, this time with the Florida State Seminoles, at least, and maybe NC State. FSU had a very similar Pre-Nationals meet to Virginia, with their top 5 all between 24:10 and 24:38, good for 4th in their race and a team average time just slower than UVA's (24:20 to 24:18). But (and this is one important "but") Seminole senior Luke Gunn (23:35 at Notre Dame this season) sat out the race. According to some sources he will be raring to go at ACCs, perhaps tipping the scales in FSU's favor. NC State is weak at #4 and #5, and have no shot at all unless someone (e.g. Gavin Coombs) comes forward and scores really low.

Scoring Meet Removing Last Year's Seniors:
1. Virginia 86
2. Duke 89
3. Florida State 96
4. Virginia Tech 111
5. Clemson 112
6 Maryland 129
7. Wake Forest 143
8 UNC 204
9. Boston College 208
10. Georgia Tech 278
11. Miami 310
12. North Carolina State Incomplete

2008 PRE NCAA Results Combined Scoring:
(Overall Place), Team Score, School
1 (9) 395 Virginia
2 (11) 421 Florida State
3 (22) 734 North Carolina St.
4 (63) 1,579 Georgia Tech

We must give the ACC credit as their teams apparently don't run against each other very much. They must like to save the rivalries and suspense for the league meet as the 12 teams attended about 7 different meets last weekend. To research them and compare them to each other is therefore a very challenging and tedious task, but one that we are totally up for completing. So here goes:

Outside of the top 3, we go to the Dukies, who return the 2nd-fewest points in the league. They didn't run too hot at Griak, and aside from soph Bo Waggoner, they aren't doing too hot in general, losing to last year's ACC 10th-place UNC Tar Heels and D2 Queens University (granted, that is Scott Simmons'* program, FYI) at the Blue Ridge Open. So perhaps the UNC Tarheels, fresh off 10th, yes 10th, in the conference last year, can get back where they and their talent belong: in the top 4. Fourth (or dare we say, 3rd?) might be going to Virginia Tech who looked pretty good in grabbing 4th just behind Lamar at the Chile Pepper meet. And Boston College might be next in line with their 2008 New Englands champion Tim Ritchie. It's pretty muddled up after that between teams like Duke, Clemson, Maryland (2-strong up front) and Georgia Tech (not to mention struggling programs Miami and Wake Forest). We know that in football, the ACC is one conference that year in and year out should not have a single team in the BCS. In cross country, the bottom half of the league, despite the perennial success of a couple teams at the top, is not inspiring.

Up front we look for guys from UVA, FSU, NC St. and VaTech to dominate, and we're picking NC State's John Martinez for the win in a close one over UVA's Ryan Collins and FSU's Dan Roberts.

*We recommend you read Scott's book, "Take The Lead", in bookstores now, for an interesting, unique, and informative read on training runners.


2008 LRC Men's ACC Team Predictions
1. FSU
2. UVA (they win in a squeaker if Gunn isn't firing at full speed)
3. Virginia Tech
4. NC State
5. UNC
6. Duke
7. Boston College
8. Maryland
9. Clemson
10. Georgia Tech
11. Miami
12. Wake Forest

2008 LRC Men's ACC Individual Predictions
1. John Martinez (NCSt.)
2. Ryan Collins (UVA)
3. Dan Roberts (FSU)
4. Bobby Mack (NCSt.)
5. Andy Biladeu (UVA)
6. Ryan Foster (UVA)
7. Matt Leeder (FSU)
8. Greg Kelsey (Maryland)
9. Devin Cornwall (VaTech)
10. Steve Gabart (FSU)

2007 ACC Results

2007 ACC Men Team Finish
1. UVA 32
2. NC St. 39
3. Florida St. 130
4. Clemson 137
5. Va Tech 139
6. Duke 156
...
10. UNC 246
...

2007 ACC Men Individual Finish
1 Chris Kollar SR NC State 24:02.1 1
2 Andy Biladeau JR Virginia 24:08.3 2
3 Ryan Foster SR Virginia 24:10.6 3
4 Emil Heineking FR Virginia 24:12.6 4
5 Patrick Mellea SR Boston College 24:16.1 5
6 Jan Foerster SR Virginia 24:16.9 6
7 Wesley Smith SR NC State 24:19.9 7
8 Matt Clark SR Clemson 24:22.2 8
9 John Crews SR NC State 24:23.2 9
10 Stephen Furst SR NC State 24:26.4 10
11 Paul LaPenna JR Virginia Tech 24:26.9 11
12 John Martinez SO NC State 24:27.0 12
13 Gavin Coombs JR NC State 24:28.9 13

Teams: #14 Virginia, Duke, #15 Florida State, #29 NC State, Va. Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Wake Forest, UNC, BC, Georgia Tech, Miami

Hypothetical results based on returners from 2007 conference meet + selected results from major 2008 meets

In listing a score for the returners, we remove last year's seniors and score the hypothetical meet in a normal fashion; i.e., runners who were outside a team's top 7 last year but move into the top 7 when seniors are removed have been counted as scorers or displacers. Returning runners who remain outside their team's top 7 do not figure into either scoring or displacing and count as extras.

Obviously, some runners listed as returners will, in fact, not be running this season. New recruits or transfers will also clearly have an immediate impact, as will runners left off of last year's squads who may have improved dramatically this year. These lists are merely a reflection of what the teams' returning conference runners did at last year's meet and how they would have placed if last year's seniors were removed - nothing more, nothing less.

Below we have each team's hypothetical score and individual places based on last year's conference meet removing last year's seniors. Underneath that we have the most recent major 2008 results (e.g., Pre-Nationals).

1. Virginia (86)

Andy Biladeau (1)
Emil Heineking (2)
Graham Tribble (14)
Andrew Jesien (19)
Trey Miller (50)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats


6. 205 Virginia (24:18.1 121:30.1)
1 23 1576 Ryan Collins 24:00.9

2 32 1579 Ryan Foster 24:13.7

3 38 1574 Andy Biladeau 24:17.9

4 55 1584 Kevin Tschirhart 24:27.9

5 57 1583 Graham Tribble 24:29.7

6 ( 93) 1581 Andrew Jesien 24:51.1

7 (122) 1580 Emil Heineking 25:04.4

2. Duke (89)

Bo Waggoner (6)
Josh Lund (17)
Kevin McDermott (20)
Ryan McDermott (21)
Tradelle Ward (25)
Cory Nanni (29)
Isaac Dunkelberger (40)

2008 Roy Griak Invitational

8. 248 Duke ( 25:23 2:06:53)
========================================
1 38 James Osborne JR 25:15 5 69 Cory Nanni SO 25:40
2 42 Andrew Brodeur FR 25:17 6 ( 84) Josh Lund SO 25:54
3 49 Bo Waggoner SO 25:20 7 ( 91) Ryan McDermott SO 25:57

2008 Blue Ridge Open


1 North Carolina 43 4 6 7 11 15 17 30
Total Time: 2:05:00.00
Average: 25:00.00
2 Queens Univ 53 1 3 9 14 26 56 146
Total Time: 2:05:03.00
Average: 25:00.60
3. Duke 62 2 12 13 16 19 23 35
Total Time: 2:05:58.00
Average: 25:11.60


3. Florida State (96)

Matt Leeder (8)
Steeve Gabart (9)
Nick Sunseri (22)
Daniel Roberts (24)
Justin Harbor (33)
Javier Cruz (61)
(only 6 returning finishers)


2008 Pre-Nats

4. 212 Florida State (24:20.2 121:40.7)

1 28 448 Daniel Roberts 24:10.1

2 32 446 Matt Leeder 24:12.2

3 33 442 Steeve Gabart 24:12.3

4 51 447 Fout Mike 24:27.7

5 68 449 Nick Sunseri 24:38.4

6 (193) 444 Justin Harbor 25:40.8

7 (260) 441 Trey Andrews 26:46.7

4. Virginia Tech (111)

Paul LaPenna (3)
Devin Cornwall (7)
Matt Kroetch (23)
Zach Thomas (34)
Phillip Padilla (44)
Billy Berlin (56)
(only 6 returning finishers)


2008 Chile Pepper

2. ARKANSAS
4 11 12 23 25 (33) (34) = 75
Scott MacPherson, Daniel Lacava, Andy McClary, Alex McClary, Eric
Fernandez, Duncan Phillips, Lane Boyer

3. LAMAR UNIVERSITY
1 6 21 45 47 (73)(120) = 120
Samuel Kosgei, Francis Kasagule, Drew Bean, Hillary Samoei, Frank
Bwambale, Randy Becker, Jared Rodriguez

4. VIRGINIA TECH
10 24 28 29 31 (32) (35) = 122
Devin Cornwall, Billy Berlin, Will Mulherin, Phil Padilla, Michael
Hammond, Matt Kroetch, Brian Welch

5. Clemson (112)

Sam Bryfczynski (11)
Matt Bruce (15)
Bryce Iverson (18)
Jonathan Sunde (30)
Will Noble (38)
Chad Holt (59)
(only 6 returning finishers)

2008 Blue Ridge Open
 
Clemson 164 22 27 36 39 40 106 160
Total Time: 2:09:07.00
Average: 25:49.40

6. Maryland (129)

Greg Kelsey (12)
Ben Deistel (16)
Joe Simpson (28)
Richie Booth (31)
Mike Cator (42)
Kevin Gahr (47)
Alex Lundy (48)

2008 Tiger Invite

1. Michael Maag, Princeton, 24:07.8;
2. Greg Kelsey, Maryland, 24:13.9;
3. Alex Lundy, Maryland, 24:15.7...
25. Kevin Gahr, Maryland, 24:53.3;
41. Richie Booth, Maryland, 25:10.4;
46. Mike Cator, 25:17.0;
56. Drew Abernathy, Maryland, 25:25.3;
82. Joe Simpson, Maryland, 25:51.3.

7. Wake Forest (143)

Greg Billington (13)
Patrick Russell (26)
Marcus Dillon (27)
Jeremy Fisico (32)
Keaton Morgan (45)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Penn State Open

27. Wake Forest

104 Thomas Morrison, Fr 27:04 5:12
173 Ben Morrow, Fr 28:34 5:30
176 Nicholas Lepley, Jr 28:52 5:33
181 Zachary Hines, Sr 28:59 5:34
188 Matt King, Fr 29:26 5:40
Time = 2:22:54 Places = 822

8. North Carolina (204)

Ian Bracy (35)
Brock Baker (36)
Tristram Thomas (39)
Zach Dawson (43)
Nick Hutchins (51)
Stephen Bloemeke (57)
Samuel Bryan (60)

2008 Blue Ridge Open
 
1 North Carolina 43 4 6 7 11 15 17 30
Total Time: 2:05:00.00
Average: 25:00.00

9. Boston College (208)

Tim Ritchie (10)
David Emerson (37)
Ryan Kiracofe (41)
Philip Woerner (58)
Michael Keebler (62)
(only 5 returning finishers)


10. Georgia Tech (278)

E.C. Gibbs (49)
Matt Hickey (53)
Casey Gramling (54)
Greg Johnson (55)
Billy Mateker (67)
(only 5 returning finishers)

2008 Pre-Nats

31. 792 Georgia Tech (25:22.8 126:53.6)

1 126 493 Ec Gibbs 25:08.1
2 152 497 Billy Mateker 25:19.0
3 158 502 Nazar Trilisky 25:20.4
4 166 495 Matt Hickey 25:27.2
5 190 494 Casey Gramling 25:38.9
6 (209) 500 Garad Soderman 25:54.0
7 (240) 498 Dj McMillan 26:29.1

11. Miami (310)

Ryan Woodlee (52)
Andrew Chuplis (63)
Vincent Giambanco (64)
Greg Grosicki (65)
Eric Miller (66)
(only 5 returning finishers)


2008 Blue Ridge Open
 
19 Miami 533 79 108 112 114 120 127 141
Total Time: 2:17:40.00
Average: 27:32.00

12. North Carolina State (incomplete score)

J
ohn Martinez (4)
Gavin Coombs (5)
Fredy Torres (46)
(only 3 returning finishers)


2008 Pre-Nats

10. 366 North Carolina St. (24:36.9 123:04.5)
==========================================================
1 22 985 Bobby Mack 24:06.6
2 26 986 John Martinez 24:08.4
3 59 984 Ryan Hill 24:33.4
4 116 988 Andrew North 25:04.0
5 143 987 Bobby Moldovan 25:12.1
6 (212) 983 Greg Dame 25:50.7
7 (246) 989 Fredy Torres 26:15.5

Pre-Nationals Combined Results

9. Virginia 395 points
11. Florida State 421
22. North Carolina State 734


*Disagree with our predictions? Vote in our NCAA Polls (National and Conference Voting) or email us
*LetsRun.com NCAA XC Conference Polls from 10/17/08

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