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69 People Would Have Qualified for 2007 Olympic Marathon Trials Under 2012 Rules
By David Monti
(c) 2007 Race Results Weekly, all rights reserved
December 17, 2007

An independent study of athlete performances showed that under the new 2012 USA Olympic Team Trials - Men's Marathon qualifying rules passed at the recent USATF Convention, 69 men would have qualified for the 2008 Trials which were held in New York City last month, a 61% reduction from the number who actually qualfied.  That race had 179 qualifiers and 130 starters.

The study, conducted by Race Results Weekly, showed that just 35 men would have qualifed with a 2:19:00 or better marathon run on either an IAAF record-standard course (no more than 50% start/finish separation and elevation loss limited to 42.195 meters), plus the Boston Marathon, from which the USATF Men's Long Distance Running Committee said they would be inclined to accept performances.  Fourteen athletes who were accepted into the 2008 Trials with marathon marks better than 2:19:01 would have been excluded because their performances were achieved on aided courses, like the 2006 Freescale Austin Marathon (137 meter elevation loss), 2006 California International Marathon (105 meters), 2006 and 2007 St. George Marathon (781 meters), and 2007 Top of Utah Marathon (319 meters).

An additional 19 men would have qualifed under the new 1:05:00 half-marathon standard, an option not available to 2008 Trials hopefuls who had to achieve marathon times of at least two hours and 22 minutes, or 10,000m marks of at least 28:45.00, or 5000m marks of at least 13:40.00.  Three athletes who did not qualify for the 2008 Trials  --Max King, Travis Laird and Ryan Sheehan-- would have qualifed under the new half-marathon standard.

For the study, Race Results Weekly only considered half-marathon performances achieved on IAAF record-standard courses (start/finish separation limited to 50% of the race distance and no more than 21.1 meters of elevation loss), plus very slightly aided courses like the BUPA Great North Run (30.5 meters of elevation loss).  Only two athletes who would not have qualified with a marathon performance, Josh Rohatinsky and Adam Goucher, would have qualified at the Great North Run.  However, even if that course were excluded, Rohatinsky and Goucher would have nonetheless qualified with 10,000m performances.

Another 15 athletes who did not meet either the new marathon or half-marathon standards would have qualified on the track with a 28:30.00 or better 10,000m time.

The study must be considered only a rough guide of the number of qualifiers because athletes did not know of the new standards and were not trying to achieve them.  It is likely there would have been more half-marathon qualifiers had that been an option for the 2008 Trials.

The total number of theoretical qualifiers is consistent with what was expected by the Men's Long Distance Running Committee.  "This might produce 65 to 85 qualifiers," said committee chairman, Glenn Latimer, at the convention in Honolulu when the new rules were passed.

Had the new qualifying system been in place, four more athletes would have had the opportunity to participate in the 2008 Trials with all of their travel, lodging and meal expenses paid by the event organizers, the New York Road Runners.  That's because under the new system ALL qualifiers would be eligible to have their expenses covered, whereas the previous system only paid the expenses for "A" qualifiers, those who had achieved a marathon time of at least 2:20:00.  The slower marathon qualifiers, plus the track qualifiers were not eligible for expense coverage.  The 2008 Trials had 65 "A" qualifiers.

[The methodology for the study appears at the bottom of the qualifiers list.]

2008 USA OLYMPIC TEAM TRIALS - MEN'S MARATHON THEORETICAL QUALFIERS UNDER 2012 RULES

MARATHON QUALIFIERS (2:19:00 or better, 1/1/2006 - 10/7/2007 plus 2005 USA Championships):

2:07:04 Khalid Khannouchi (NY) Flora London Marathon 4/23/06
2:08:24 Ryan Hall (CA) Flora London Marathon 4/22/07
2:08:56 Abdi Abdirahman (AZ) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:09:56 Meb Keflezighi (CA) B.A.A. Boston Marathon 4/17/06
2:10:47 Brian Sell (MI) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:11:02 Alan Culpepper (CO) B.A.A. Boston Marathon 4/17/06
2:12:27 Fernando Cabada Fukuoka International Marathon 12/3/06
2:12:45 Peter Gilmore (CA) B.A.A. Boston Marathon 4/17/06
2:12:53 Mbarak Hussein (NM) Seoul International Marathon 3/12/06
2:14:01 Dathan Ritzenhein (CO) ING New York City Marathon 11/5/06
2:14:09 Simon Sawe (NM) 2006 USA Marathon Championships 10/1/06
2:14:12 Clint Verran (MI) B.A.A. Boston Marathon 4/17/06
2:14:58 Ryan Shay (MI) 2006 USA Marathon Championships 10/1/06
2:15:03 Chad Johnson (MI) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:15:11 Mike Morgan (MI) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:15:13 Kyle O'Brien (MI) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:15:20 Brandon Leslie (NM) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:15:22 Luke Humphrey (MI) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:15:50 Jason Hartmann (CO) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:16:44 Jacob Frey (VA) Pan American Games - Marathon 7/29/07
2:16:58 Nicholas Arciniaga (CA) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:17:05 Martin Rosendahl (CA) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:17:13 Josh Ordway (OH)(2) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:17:32 Chris Seaton (NC) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:17:34 Chris Lundstrom (MN) 2006 USA Marathon Championships 10/1/06
2:17:46 Michael Reneau (WI) Chevron Houston Marathon 1/14/07
2:17:50 Mike McKeeman (CA) Philadelphia Marathon 11/19/06
2:18:13 Cecil Franke (IN) Columbus Marathon 10/15/06
2:18:14 Fasil Bizuneh (VA) 2006 USA Marathon Championships 10/1/06
2:18:15 Steve Meinelt (DC) Chevron Houston Marathon 1/14/07
2:18:18 Chris Graff (VA) 2006 USA Marathon Championships 10/1/06
2:18:40 Joe Driscoll (NC) ING New York City Marathon 11/5/06
2:18:50 John Lucas (OR) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:18:56 Dave Ernsberger (MI) LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon 10/22/06
2:19:00 Matt Pelletier (RI) Key Bank Vermont City Marathon 5/27/07
[35 marathon qualifiers]


ADDITIONAL HALF-MARATHON QUALIFIERS (1:05:00 or better; 1/1/2006 - 10/7/2007):
--These Athletes Had Not Achieved a Marathon Qualifier--

1:02:33 Ian Dobson (CA) Big Sur Half-Marathon 10/29/2006
1:02:51 Jason Lehmkuhle (MN) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/14/2007
1:02:54 Josh Rohatinsky (OR) BUPA Great North Run 9/30/2007
1:03:08 Max King (OR) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/15/2006
1:03:17 Adam Goucher (OR)  BUPA Great North Run 9/30/2007
1:03:21 Andrew Carlson (MN) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/15/2006
1:03:33 Edwardo Torres (CO) Philadelphia Distance Run 9/17/2007
1:03:55 Dan Browne (OR) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/14/2007
1:03:57 Travis Laird (MI) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/14/2007
1:03:58 Justin Young (CO) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/14/2007
1:04:02 Nicholas Stanko (MI) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/14/2007
1:04:20 Matt Gabrielson (MN) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/15/2006
1:04:24 Kyle Baker (MI) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/15/2006
1:04:24 Sergio Reyes (CA) Big Sur Half-Marathon 10/29/2006
1:04:25 Ryan sheehan (MI) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/14/2007
1:04:37 Josh Moen (MI) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/14/2007
1:04:42 Macharia Yuot (PA) Philadelphia Distance Run 9/16/2007
1:04:46 Teren Jameson (UT) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/15/2006
1:04:47 Matt Levassiur (CO) USA Half-Marathon Championships Houston 1/15/2006
[19 additional half-marathon qualifiers]


ADDITIONAL 10,000m QUALIFIERS (28:30.00 or better; 1/1/2006 - 10/7/2007):
--These Athletes Had Not Achieved Either a Marathon or Half-Marathon Qualifier--

27:33.48 Galen Rupp (OR) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/29/07
27:34.72 Alan Webb (VA) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/30/06
27:37.74 Antony Famiglietti (NY) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/30/06
27:42.91 Jorge Torres (CO) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/29/07
27:43.13 Ed Moran (VA) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/29/07
27:43.64 James Carney (CO) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/29/07
28:02.51 Seth Summerside (AR) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/29/07
28:04.46 Tim Nelson (WI) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/29/07
28:10.59 Brandon Leslie (NM) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/30/06
28:22.33 Matt Gonzales (NM) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/30/06
28:24.08 Westly Keating (TX) Stanford University Invitational 3/31/06
28:26.22 Ryan Kirkpatrick (CO) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/30/06
28:27.43 Nef Araia (CA) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/30/06
28:27.65 Josh McDougal (VA) Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational 10,000 4/29/07
28:29.16 Sean Quigley (NY)    Stanford University Invitational 3/31/07
[15 additional 10,000m qualifiers]

[Grand Total Qualifiers = 69]


HOW THE STUDY WAS DONE

1. Marathon performances which USATF accepted for the 2008 Trials were examined for acceptability under the new rules (2:19:00 or better).  The qualifying period was January 1, 2006, through October 7, 2007, PLUS October 1, 2005, the date of the USA Men's Marathon Championships held at the Twin Cities Marathon.  Only the best marathon performance for any given athlete was listed.

2. Half-marathon performances as contained in the Race Results Weekly Athlete Performance Database from January 1, 2006, through October 7, 2007, were examined for acceptability under the new rules (1:05:00 or better).  Athletes who had achieved a qualifying mark in a marathon race were not included; the half-marathon list was only intended to show ADDITIONAL qualifiers.  Only IAAF record-standard courses plus one slightly aided course, the BUPA Great North Run, were included.

3. 10,000m performances which USATF accepted for the 2008 Trials were examined for acceptability under the new rules (28:30.00 or better).  Athletes who had achieved a qualifying mark in either a marathon or half-marathon race were not included; the 10,000m list was only intended to show ADDITIONAL qualifiers.  All timing was fully automatic (FAT).


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