Olympic 400 Hurdles Preview: Sydney v Femke, & Can Rai Benjamin Finally Win Gold?

The 400-meter hurdles finals at the last Olympics in Tokyo were the stuff of dreams. In the men’s race, Norway’s Karsten Warholm (45.94) and the USA’s Rai Benjamin (46.17) both annihilated the world record of 46.70, with Warholm becoming the first human being to run under 46 seconds. Three years later, those remain the two fastest times in history and the two rivals are favored to finish first and second at the 2024 Olympics in Paris. The difference is that this time Benjamin, who beat Warholm head-to-head in Monaco on July 12, is the favorite for gold.

The women’s race in Tokyo was just as impressive, with Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (51.46) coming from behind off the final hurdle to defeat fellow American Dalilah Muhammad (51.58) as both crushed the old world record of 51.90. Since then, SML has broken her own world record three more times, most recently a 50.65 at the US Olympic Trials on June 30. In Paris, her biggest competition will be the Netherlands’ Femke Bol, who won last year’s World Championships (McLaughlin-Levrone missed that meet due to injury) and joined SML in the sub-51 club by running 50.95 on July 14.

Both the men’s and women’s 400 hurdles are benefiting from multiple generational talents who just happen to be part of the same generation. Together, they have pushed the events to heights few could have imagined just five years ago and have set the stage for two fantastic 400-meter finals in Paris. Here’s what to know about each race.

Men’s 400m hurdles (final August 9, 3:45 p.m. ET)

Since turning pro out of USC in 2018, Rai Benjamin has been incredible. But so far, incredible has not been enough to win him a gold medal.

At the 2021 Olympics, Benjamin ran 46.17, a time that would have won every race in history prior to that point (by a significant margin). But Karsten Warholm ran even faster and Benjamin had to settle for silver.

One year later at the 2022 World Championships, Benjamin ran 46.89. That time would have broken the championship record of 47.18 set by Kevin Young way back in 1993…except Brazil’s Alison dos Santos finished a few steps ahead in 46.29.

In all, Benjamin has three silvers at the Olympics/Worlds (2019, 2021, 2022) and one bronze (in 2023). Had he been born a few years earlier, he would have completely dominated the event. Instead, he is one of the greatest athletes never to have won a global title.

But you know what they say: if at first you don’t succeed, try, try (try, try) again. Benjamin enters the Paris Olympics as the fastest man in the world in 2024 thanks to his 46.46 victory at the Olympic Trials; that’s also the fastest time ever by anyone prior to a major championship. There are two big reasons to think this could be the year he finally grabs the gold:

1) He’s healthy

Benjamin has delivered some incredible performances over the last two years, but he has done so while fighting through injuries — a torn hamstring in 2022 and a back/quad issue in 2023. He still ran 46.89 in 2022 and 46.39 in 2023. It is scary to think what he is capable of Paris if he has been fully healthy all season.

2) He’s been beating Warholm and dos Santos head-to-head

Since last year’s World Championships, Benjamin has raced Warholm and dos Santos head-to-head twice and won both times. The first came in the final meet of last year at the Diamond League final, where Benjamin ran down Warholm to win in 46.39 (Warholm was second in 46.53), the fastest time in the world in all of 2023. It also marked just the second time Benjamin had ever beaten Warholm, but it left Benjamin wondering why he could do it in the DL final but not with a medal on the line.

“I need to perform when it really matters and that’s at Worlds, at the Olympics,” Benjamin said. “And I haven’t done that yet.”

Benjamin’s second head-to-head win came just two weeks ago in Monaco, where he ran 46.67 to Warholm’s 46.73 and dos Santos’ 47.13. That was notable not just because Benjamin won, but because he was even in the race at all. Monaco was Benjamin’s first European Diamond League since 2019. The fact that Benjamin felt healthy and confident enough to travel over early from his Los Angeles training base and face his biggest rivals directly before the Olympics suggests things have been going very well.

Warholm is also more vulnerable than in previous years. From the start of 2019 through the 2023 World Championship final, Warholm lost a total of one 400 hurdles race — the 2022 Worlds final, where he was running just six weeks after tearing his hamstring. Since last year’s Worlds, Warholm has only won one of his five 400 hurdles races.

But Warholm, who has won four of the five global finals since 2017, is not going to go down without a fight. And it’s not as if he is running poorly in his losses. Warholm ran 46.53 in Eugene last year, 46.70 in Oslo in May and 46.73 in Monaco in July. Those are 4th, 5th, and 7th fastest times of Warholm’s career. It’s also worth noting that 46.70 was Warholm’s season’s best in 2021 before he ran his 45.94 world record in Tokyo. With Warholm and Benjamin pushing each other in Paris, it would not be a surprise if another world record is required to win gold in 2024.

Alison dos Santos, the bronze medalist in Tokyo and the world champ two years ago in Eugene, is the other guy who could factor. On May 30, he handed Warholm a loss on his home track, running 46.63 to win in Oslo, and his 46.29 pb is the third-fastest time ever run. But he has not looked as sharp since Oslo, and did not have the legs off the final hurdle in Monaco, finishing 3rd in 47.18. He’s trending in the wrong direction.

Before I pick my winner, let’s pause for a minute and appreciate how great all three of these guys are. Kevin Young‘s 46.78 world record lasted for nearly 30 years — from 1992 to 2021. This trio has combined to run faster than that 17 times, including six times in 2024 (three by Benjamin, two by Warholm, one by dos Santos).

JG prediction: 1. Benjamin 2. Warholm 3. dos Santos

Immediately after last year’s World Championships, it looked as if Benjamin might never win a gold medal. But he has been the best of the Big Three since then and is the healthiest he’s been in years. It will take a monumental effort to defeat Warholm, but Benjamin — one of the greatest athletes to ever run this event — is capable of summoning just such an effort. It should be an incredible final.

Women’s 400m hurdles (final August 8, 3:25 p.m. ET)

Track fans the world over desperately want a rivalry to develop between superstars Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone and Femke Bol. Both are world champions, both are world record holders (SML in the 400 hurdles, Bol in the indoor 400), and combined, they own the seven fastest times ever run in the 400 hurdles (four by McLaughlin-Levrone, three by Bol). They are the only two women in history to break 51 seconds in this event; Dalilah Muhammad is a distant third on the all-time list at 51.58.

But right now, this is not a rivalry. First, the two never race against each other — in large part because McLaughlin-Levrone barely races the 400 hurdles, period. Aside from the Olympic Trials, which SML was required to run to make the US Olympic team, she has run the 400 hurdles once in 2024. Since she began being coached by Bobby Kersee in 2020, McLaughlin-Levrone has run a total of nine 400m hurdle finals — less than two per season on average. Bol, by comparison, ran nine 400m hurdle finals in 2023 alone.

It’s easy to see why people want to hype up a rivalry between Bol and McLaughlin-Levrone. Both are way better than everyone else in the event, and we have the appeal of the unknown because they never race against each other — SML and Bol have only squared off only two times, ever.

But when they have raced, it has not been close. McLaughlin-Levrone won the 2021 Olympic final in 51.46; Bol got the bronze in 52.03. One year later in the World Championship final, SML won gold in 50.68 to Bol’s silver 52.27. That’s 1.59 seconds — an enormous gap in the 400 hurdles.

Bol has improved since then, knocking more than half a second off her pb by running 51.45 last year and has run 51.30 this year. That’s still a long way from McLaughlin-Levrone, though.

Wait, you might be thinking. Didn’t you say Bol’s personal best is 50.95?

Yes, that is her personal best. But it deserves an asterisk because it came in La Chaux-de-Fonds, the Swiss track located at 3,280 feet of elevation that is known for producing outlier performances.

Look at it this way. Bol, even with the benefit of altitude, has run 50.95. McLaughlin-Levrone has run 50.65 at sea level. Bol could get faster by Paris, but of the three global finals she has participated in, Bol has run a PR in just one of the (the 2021 Olympics).

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, meanwhile, peaks better than any athlete on the planet. Since her first US final as a 16-year-old in 2016, SML has run a total of 10 US/Olympic/World Championship finals in her career and set a personal best in nine of them — a stretch that includes five world records. That is absurd.

Seriously, look at this. You could argue it is slightly easier for McLaughlin-Levrone to run personal bests given she races so infrequently outside of championships. I’d counter by saying it is harder to run a personal best when your personal best is the world record.

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone’s US/Olympic/World finals

All of that is to say that it is not unrealistic to expect McLaughlin-Levrone to go even faster in Paris. Perhaps significantly so considering she improved by .44 from the Olympic Trials to the Olympics in 2021 and .73 from USAs to Worlds in 2023.

JG prediction: 1. McLaughlin-Levrone 2. Bol 3. Rushell Clayton

As good as Bol is, it would still be a massive upset if she wins the gold in Paris. That is not meant as a knock on Bol. It’s just that McLaughlin-Levrone is that good.