W1500 Preview: Faith Kipyegon Will Win, But Who Medals Behind Her?
By Robert Johnson
Who’s the greatest women’s 800 runner ever? What about the 5,000?
Lots of times when we ask a question like that, it’s hard to come up with an answer.
But if I ask it about the women’s 1500, the answer is simple: Faith Kipyegon.
Kipyegon, the two-time World and Olympic 1500 champ, now has the one thing missing from her CV: world records. This summer she has set them in the 1500, mile, and 5000.
Barring a fall, she will win her fifth global 1500 title on August 22 when the final is held inside of the National Athletics Centre in Budapest at the 2023 World Athletics Championships. To be honest, she might be good enough to win with a fall.
So we hope you appreciate her greatness. But what does the rest of the field look like? Who else will snag the medals?
What: Women’s 1500 at 2023 World Athletics Championships
When: Heats – Saturday, August 19, 13:15 local (7:15 a.m. ET)
Semis: August 20 – 17:05 local (11:05 a.m. ET)
Final: August 22 – 21:30 local (3:30 p.m. ET)
Kipyegon set her third world record 0f 2023 in Monaco
Last Year’s Results
1 Faith Kipyegon Kenya (KEN) 3:52.96
2 Gudaf Tsegay Ethiopia (ETH) 3:54.52
3 Laura Muir Great Britain & N.I. (GBR) 3:55.28
4 Freweyni Hailu Ethiopia (ETH) 4:01.28
5 Sofia Ennaoui Poland (POL) 4:01.43
6 Sinclaire Johnson United States (USA) 4:01.63
7 Jessica Hull Australia (AUS) 4:01.82
8 Winnie Nanyondo Uganda (UGA) 4:01.98
9 Georgia Griffith Australia (AUS) 4:03.26
10 Cory McGee United States (USA) 4:03.70
11 Marta Pérez Spain (ESP) 4:04.25
12 Hirut Meshesha Ethiopia (ETH) 4:05.86
13 Winny Chebet Kenya (KEN) 4:15.13
Fastest Entrants 2023 (Athlete / Country/ DOB/ SB/ PB)
The Ethiopian Charge
Gudaf Tsegay would be our strong pick for silver if she was in this race. In addition to being the second-fastest woman in this world in 2023, she is a proven commodity, having won silver in 2022 and bronze in 2021 and she’s been in supreme form all year long.
She’s lined up to race six times in 2023 and won all six, running a world leader in five of the six races. So far this year, she’s run an indoor mile pb of 4:16.16, indoor 3000 pb of 8:16.69, and outdoor 5000 and 10,000 pbs of 14:12.29 and 29:29.73. But she’s tired of finishing second to Kipyegon so she’s opted for the 10,000/5,000 double.
Despite Tsegay’s absence, Ethiopia could still pick up multiple medals in the event as the second-, third- and fourth-fastest entrants in the field are all Ethiopian.
Leading the way in terms of seasonal best is Hirut Meshesha, who has redemption on her mind. Last year, after winning bronze indoors and picking up wins in Rabat and Rome in her last two 1500s before Worlds, she was only 12th in the final. The 22-year-old this year has improved gradually as the season has progressed. After finishing 7th in Doha and Oslo, she was 2nd in Ostava, 3rd in Stockholm, and 1st in the Diamond League in Silesia, Poland.
The second-fastest Ethiopian entered in the race is Birke Haylom. If anyone is going to challenge Kipyegon in 2023, it might be this young woman. Why? She’s a prodigy. If her Tilastopaja profile page is to be believed, she supposedly ran a 4:18 1500 at age 12. She won World Juniors last year at 16, running a 4:02.2 sb. This year, she’s improved to 3:54.93. That being said, will she get her peak right? She’s raced a lot this year and hasn’t been totally consistent, which could be expected given her young age. Here are her DL results so far: 6th in Doha, 3rd in Rabat, 1st in Oslo, 7th in Stockholm, 2nd in Silesia.
Diribe Welteji, who won the World Jr 800 title in 2018 at age 16, snagged the third Ethiopian spot. Last year, she was 4th at Worlds in the 800, running a 1:57.02 pb in the final. This year, she’s moved to the 1500 with ease and hasn’t finished lower than 3rd in any race she’s run. This year, the 21-year-old has only run one 800. That was her last race at the London Diamond League on July 23 and it has me a little bit worried. In that race, Welteji ran in last for the first 400, running it in 60.1 before dropping out. She was well off the pace as the leaders were around 57-flat.
If she’s injured and is replaced, the alternate for Ethiopia, Freweyni Hailu, might be an even better medal contender. Hailu has finished 4th the last two years in the 1500 and this year she’s been very consistent — 3rd in Doha, 2nd in Rabat, 1st in Stockholm, and 3rd in Monaco. Unfortunately, since Ethipian picks their team based on seasonal best, she’s not in the field as she didn’t run the 1500 in Silesia where the three Ethiopians all picked up their qualifying times. Instead, she ran the 3000 (and won it in 8:26.61).
Hailu has a winning record against all three of the Ethiopians entered ahead of her. So far in 2023, Hailu is 2-1 vs Mesesha, 3-0 vs Haylom, and 2-1 vs Welteji (one of those races is a 5000).
Non-Ethiopian Medal Contenders
Laura Muir, who earned silver in 2021 and bronze in 2022, would normally be the #1 name to mention when talking about the best chances for a medal for a non-African-born runner in the women’s 1500. But Muir hasn’t been great in 2023 — her first year where she’s been coaching herself and not being coached by Andy Young. She was just 6th in Stockholm and was beaten at the British champs. In Monaco, she did set a British mile record of 4:15.24 but she lost to Kipyegon, Ireland’s Ciara Mageean, and Hailu.
The 31-year-old Mageean is a legit medal contender for the first time. Last year, she skipped Worlds to try to get ready for Commonwealths and Europeans and it worked out well as she won silver at both and then really turned heads with her 3:56.63 win in Brussels. That was her first sub-4 ever and it came at age 30.
She heads into Worlds in good form as she was second in the mile in Monaco in 4:14.58. Prior to that, she finished 4th in Florence, 11th in Oslo, and 4th in Stockholm. She’s also run an Irish record of 1:59.27 in the 800 this year.
Two Australians have a shot. Jessica Hull and Linden Hall have been trading Australian records this year as Hull ran 3:57.29 in Florence on June 2 before Hall ran 3:57.27 on July 16 in Silesia to place 5th. Still, it’s hard to imagine the current record holder Hall coming home with a medal. She hasn’t placed higher than 5th in any Diamond League this year. Hull, on the other hand, hasn’t finished lower than 5th in any Diamond League. Hull is also 2-0 against Hall this year (including a win at the Aussie champs) and is 26 years old to Hall’s 32.
Nikki Hiltz Wins 2023 USATF 1500m (Kevin Morris Photo)
The US hopefuls are US champ Nikki Hiltz, Cory McGee, and Sinclaire Johnson, last year’s US champ who is taking Athing Mu‘s spot. Hiltz has had a dream season so far this year, wiinning US titles indoors and out and running a US mile record in Monaco (4:16.35). That’s the good news. The bad news is Hiltz was 1.56 seconds behind third in Monaco. Hiltz is super competitive and has been running well all year but a medal seems like a long shot.
That said, I’m not really confident in the Ethiopians — remember, Meshesha was only 12th last year — Muir hasn’t been her old self, and Mageean has never even been considered for a medal until this year. Plus an Aussie has never won a women’s 1500 medal at Worlds. So you see why a medal for an American is conceivable. Whoever wins bronze should consider themselves very lucky that Tsegay (hell, and probably Sifan Hassan — though Hassan is still entered as of now) skipped out of this event.
Rojo Prediction: 1) Kipyegon 2) Hailu (if she runs it) 3) Meshesha
If Hailu does not run, then I’ll go: 1) Kipyegon 2) Mesesha 3) Muir
P.S. I wrote this article assuming that Sifan Hassan opts for the 10,000/5,000 double and does not run the 1500.
Her chances of gold are the highest in the 10,000 as Kipyegon isn’t in that event, and the 1500 heats are on the morning of the 10,000 final (but there is a 7 hour and 40 minute gap between the 1500 heats and the 10,000 final).
I’d love to see her try this as well and if she does, put her down for a medal, which is wild to consider. Can the London Marathon champ really medal in the 1500 four months after London? Yes.
