2013 Ostrava Analysis: Kenenisa Bekele is finished as threat on the track, Evan Jager and Galen Rupp’s medal chances go way up (and they didn’t even race)

by LetsRun.com
June 27, 2013

The 50th Ostrava Golden Spike track and field meet was held tonight. The number of American competitors were few and far between but that doesn’t mean the meet wasn’t ripe with implications for American distance medals in Moscow.

Below we give three takeaways from the men’s steeplechase and men’s 5000 races and then give you full results for those two events plus the other mid-d/distance events (men’s 800, women’s 1500, women’s steeple). Additional meet results here.

We broke down the women’s 10,000 separately: LRC Tirunesh Dibaba Stays Undefeated at 10,000 and Picks Up 30:26.67 World Lead in Ostrava

1. Kenenisa Bekele is finished as a global threat on the track (and that’s great for Galen Rupp).

A sight we don’t think you’ll ever see again

Coming into the last lap of the 5,000 in Ostrava, there were four guys very close to each other. In the end, it wasn’t competitive at all.

2012 world junior champ Muktar Edris of Ethiopia blew everyone away on the final lap including NCAA star Lawi Lalang of Arizona and Kenenisa Bekele of Ethiopia.

Edris won in 13:03.69 after a 53-54 last lap as Bekele was just fourth in 13:07.88. Seeing Bekele close in 57-58 in a 13:03 race means he’s a shadow of his former self. Perhaps, he could contend for a bronze in the 10,000 but even that seems like a stretch right now.

Some may think we’ve gone too far in writing Bekele off but once Gebrselassie lost it on the track, he never regained that magic touch either. Bekele failed to medal in 2011 and 2012. We were told it was because he was coming back from injury. Now a year later, or should we say a year older, he looks worse than he did in either of those years. This year, Bekele’s close in Eugene wasn’t impressive, then he dropped out of Hengelo and now he only runs 13:07. Not good.

The facts show that he ran way better in 2011 on limited training than he is on full training in 2013.

Update: The results from today’s meet in Sollentuna, Sweden are in and three Ethiopians ran faster than Bekele did at Prefontaine. If the Ethiopians select their team based on time like they did last year, that would mean Bekele won’t even be going to Worlds.

Sollentuna 10,000 Results.
1 Dejen Gebremeskel 89  26:51.02 WL AR
2 Abera Kuma 90  26:52.85 PB
3 Imane Merga 88  26:57.33 SB
4 Yigrem Demelash 94  27:15.51
5 Atsedu Tsegay 91  27:28.11
Hassan Mead 89 USA DNF

2. The best African distance talent right now all seems to be the very young guys and few of them have even tried a 10,000 (and that’s great for Galen Rupp).

There are three guys in the world in 2013 who have gone sub-13 for 5000. Two of them are 19 and one is 23 and none of them has even run a 10,000 on track.

The Three Sub 13:00s in 2013
1    12:54.95    Yenew Alamirew – age 23
2    12:55.73    Hagos Gebrhiwet     – age 19
3    12:58.85    Isiah Koech – age 19

Given the way the sport works financially, the IAAF really should consider not requiring 10,000 ‘A’ standard time for sub-13:00 performers. If you go sub-13 on the track, you should be given an IAAF ‘A’ standard. It takes a lot of time to prepare for and recover from a 10,000 so financially not a lot of young Africans are going to do it as there almost is no money to be made running a 10,000 in Europe these days.

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We  end up with a watered down field in Moscow as a result.

Rupp doesn’t need to worry about beating Alamirew, Gebrhiwet, or Koech as they likely won’t be in the 10,000 race.

Update: 23-year old Dejen Gebremeskel did make his 10,000 debut tonight in Sollentuna and ran a world-leading 26:51. The fact that the 12:48 guy is now likely in the 10,000 is BIG news and will make things much harder for Rupp. A surprising time for Gebremeskel in the short term as he looked awful in running 13:31 for 5000 in New York, but not long term, as people would expect at 12:48 guy to break 27:00. Gebremeskel proves our point. When these youngsters do finally do the 10k, they are very good.

5000 results from Ostrava appear below. A big pb for Aussie Brett Robinson who got the 5000 ‘B’ standard of 13:20.00. His previous pb was 13:26. One other note, the announcers said tonight’s run was a big PB for Lawi Lalang. It wasn’t. They didn’t realize that Lalang, who did a lot of the leading tonight, had run 13:08.28 indoors last year.

2013 Ostrava 5000 Results

3. Conseslus Kipruto continues to get slower each time he races (and that’s good for Evan Jager)

The 18-year old Kipruto is a phenom no doubt. Tonight, he won the steeplechase in Ostrava to remain undefeated on the year in the steeple. But each time he races, he gets slower:

Conseslus Kipruto’s Steepleachases This Year

8:01.16      PB (1)        1    Diamond    Shanghai    18 May
8:03.59              1    Pre    Eugene OR    1 Jun
8:04.48              1    Bislett    Oslo    13 Jun
8:11.27              1    Ostrava     27 Jun

Now the pace maker who was supposed to go to 2k wiped out on the first water jump so this isn’t necessarily a true sign of Kipruto’s fitness as he was all alone after three minutes, but it show he’s raced a lot this year and each time it’s gotten slower. Meanwhile, Evan Jager is chomping at the bit after his 8:08 opener and USA win.

Jager’s medal chances are going up and up.

Men’s 800 Results

Women’s 1500 Results

Women’s Steeplechase Results

Women’s 10,000

*Full 2013 Ostrava Results