Watching the recent surge of high school phenomens got me thinking. It seems clear that these guys are running way more mileage than I did 25 years ago and this has translated into better performances. But is this the best way to approach long term development?
So here is my scenario for the letsrun community. Imagine you are the coach for a talented 8th grader. Let's say he is an individual that looks like a kid that could clearly be a D1 runner, likely an all American and maybe has an outside shot at a professional career. You think his long term potential is as a 5K/10K collegiate but then he might eventually be a marathoner. For kicks let's give him minimally trained 8th grade PRs of 4:45/10:15 (and his development is normal - i.e. He doesn't look like a 17 yo 8th grader). I just made those times up but that's a level of talent that suggests a lot of potential to me.
Given these parameters how do you train him? Shoot for mileage progression that allows big mileage by senior year (like 80-90 mile weeks), take a more moderate approach knowing that he might not be as successful if he's only hitting 50-60 miles as a senior but this gives him more room for progression as collegiate (think Bob Kennedy), emphasize speed development while he's young (I.e target 800/1600 in early years even though he's clearly a better distance runner)?
After thinking about this, I started to think today's high school success stories might be sacrificing long term gain. I don't know the right answer but I might suggest more moderation (like 50-60 mile weeks max for a HS senior) with greater emphasis on speed development and maybe a focus on shorter distances early in the high school career.