Official 2015 EDP Lisbon Half Marathon Discussion Thread - Will the World Record Go Down? (Race at 6:30 am ET)

Mo did a 59:30 in a 12mph wind and fairly warm conditions. If Mo did a race in cooler weather, calm winds, pacers for him and he trained specifically for the half he'd be much closer.

Based on the generic drafting analysis from this blog,

http://www.practicallyscience.com/the-science-of-drafting/

, the wind could have a cost a tremendous amount of time that they wouldn't make up with in tailwind.

Haha. Why are you concerned about what current shape he's in for track?

webby wrote:

Haha. Why are you concerned about what current shape he's in for track?

I'm not and didn't say I was

Bubbadeeboo wrote:

Mo did a 59:30 in a 12mph wind and fairly warm conditions. If Mo did a race in cooler weather, calm winds, pacers for him and he trained specifically for the half he'd be much closer.

Based on the generic drafting analysis from this blog,

http://www.practicallyscience.com/the-science-of-drafting/

, the wind could have a cost a tremendous amount of time that they wouldn't make up with in tailwind.

It was way stronger than 12mph in the last 2 miles.

I haven't been the biggest fan of Mo from the beginning but throughout the years he has managed to convince me. His 2mile indoor record and now this HM European record shows he is a very serious and versatile runner.

What happened last year in Manchester was a Marketing PR stunt and it was a bit sad to watch, but Mutai and Kimetto did the same in Berlin in 2012. They are both great runners despite that…

I ran the race today and when I crossed paths with the leaders at 32min he was way off… I thought he had crashed and burned. When we crossed again at 52min he was back with Kogo and Kibet.

The conditions were far from ideal for a record attempt, there was a strong headwind in the first 5K and an even stronger headwind the last 4K. It was very warm so hats off to him, a truly exceptional effort.

Kogo fought hard, even trying to catch Farah off guard in the last 5 meters but Farah was already cruising across the line. His kick is unmatchable, only an in-form Bekele could hold him off.

If he had made the right choice (going with the lead pack) in London last year the story would have probably been a bit different.

One other thing is that I've actually met the man the day before the race and he is truly a top bloke. Very nice and friendly to anyone who approaches him.

I am, as of today, a Mo fan.

Farah is ~2% off the WR at pretty much every distance 1500 - 13.1mi though his only chance for a WR may be 2000m.

< 2:15 1000m and

salsa chips wrote:

webby wrote:

I don't think his current 1500 condition matters. People are speculating about his potential in the 5000 and 10 this summer. If he's not in good half marathon shape, then their guesses should be conservative. They seem about right to me.

no, ventolin's calculator tells you what current shape he's in based on current condition in other distances so yes his current 1500 condition matters. It is not about potential.

It doesn't really tell you shit.

Mr Obvious, succincty and delicately put. I may be wrong but I don't think that the calculator is designed to tell you anything about "sh*t". However, surely c21km on the road (or even c3km indoors) is not a good predictor of time for 10k on the track. I suspect we'll see Mo go for a early season fast 3k which will give us a better clue.

Mobo wrote:

However, surely c21km on the road (or even c3km indoors) is not a good predictor of time for 10k on the track.

Why not?

Meb FTW wrote:Yeah, 3:28 - 8:03 - 59:30.

Ventolin, what does that give for 5000 and 10000?

no "predictor" can predict what a short-speed guy can run for an abominable 1/2M !

we have to always offer him speed : 3'28+

for long whack, he is never ever road distance guy, meaning 1/2M+, on waay,waay past his "sweet spot"/"hitting zone"

those road run 58+/59+ are lot quicker on track

( tadesse was looking for 26'10 - 26'20wr at peak

& shouda got but except for same kogo in race!!! )

it's actually embarrassing he wastes his energies on these, but must be getting huge $$$

someone try extreme variations for "track" & know 21.1k is hugely beyond mo's hiting zone :

3'28 - 3'30 / 58'00 - 58'30