Official Russia vs Ukraine War Thread

agip wrote:

current status of the war seems to be:

RU was simply beaten in the North. They had to do a wild retreat into Belarus and RU, leaving lots behind and getting ambushed all the way.

In the South Mariopol is still not in RU hands, so there is no land bridge.

On the south shore, UKR anti-ship activity has kept the russians from amphibious landings or easy resupply of the south.

So the east.

RU is moving all its dead-tired, defeated men with their broken equipment to the East to make a last stand. There are no replacements. RU clearly does not trust any other soldiers. so the question is what kind of morale these battle-weary soldiers have, and if their equipment still works.

On the UKR side, they too are exhausted and stressed out and low on equipment. but they are defending their homeland and have the indigenous on their side and NATO is resupplying them.

The question is now what...if RU digs in...hard to see how UKR could mount an offensive to eject RU from UKR. So most likely, there will be two Ukraines...an East Ukraine puppet state and a free West Ukraine. Like the two germanies and two the two koreas.

agip wrote:

current status of the war seems to be:

RU was simply beaten in the North. They had to do a wild retreat into Belarus and RU, leaving lots behind and getting ambushed all the way.

In the South Mariopol is still not in RU hands, so there is no land bridge.

On the south shore, UKR anti-ship activity has kept the russians from amphibious landings or easy resupply of the south.

So the east.

RU is moving all its dead-tired, defeated men with their broken equipment to the East to make a last stand. There are no replacements. RU clearly does not trust any other soldiers. so the question is what kind of morale these battle-weary soldiers have, and if their equipment still works.

On the UKR side, they too are exhausted and stressed out and low on equipment. but they are defending their homeland and have the indigenous on their side and NATO is resupplying them.

The question is now what...if RU digs in...hard to see how UKR could mount an offensive to eject RU from UKR. So most likely, there will be two Ukraines...an East Ukraine puppet state and a free West Ukraine. Like the two germanies and two the two koreas.

Precious Roy wrote:

agip wrote:

current status of the war seems to be:

RU was simply beaten in the North. They had to do a wild retreat into Belarus and RU, leaving lots behind and getting ambushed all the way.

In the South Mariopol is still not in RU hands, so there is no land bridge.

On the south shore, UKR anti-ship activity has kept the russians from amphibious landings or easy resupply of the south.

So the east.

RU is moving all its dead-tired, defeated men with their broken equipment to the East to make a last stand. There are no replacements. RU clearly does not trust any other soldiers. so the question is what kind of morale these battle-weary soldiers have, and if their equipment still works.

On the UKR side, they too are exhausted and stressed out and low on equipment. but they are defending their homeland and have the indigenous on their side and NATO is resupplying them.

The question is now what...if RU digs in...hard to see how UKR could mount an offensive to eject RU from UKR. So most likely, there will be two Ukraines...an East Ukraine puppet state and a free West Ukraine. Like the two germanies and two the two koreas.

The outcome of this war depends on the Russian economy and whether Russia maintains its current level of risk aversion. Russia is now paying dollar bond debt with Rubles. Russia has thrown everything it has at propping up the Ruble, which has so far been successful. But those tactics are a bit like poking a hole in the hull of a ship to get water to put our a fire in the engine room. Russia raised interest rates to 20% and put in place capital controls to prevent capital flight. This pretty much dooms the Russian economy save and except for existing oil and gas production. Russia is facing a depression with growth going into double digit negative territory. This will eventually catch up with the Ruble. War is very expensive. Russia will reach a point in the next few months where it will no longer be able to fund the war unless other countries are willing to finance the war.

As for risk aversion, one thing that has been interesting about the Russian campaign in Ukraine is that there has been a relatively high level of risk aversion amongst the Russian armed forces. Even though Russia's armed forces have been pretty inept, they have numbers and have lots of bombs. They could have taken Kyiv if they were willing to lose 15-20,000 troops in the process. But they never made it past the suburbs. If this level of risk aversion remains constant, I do not see Russia ever taking Donbas, outside of the few areas that are currently held by separatists. So, I think the future is stalemate with Russia gaining some ground in Donbas, but ending the conflict with a cease fire and a very volatile border between Ukraine controlled and Russian controlled Donbas.

PutinWarCriminal wrote:

Let's recap:

You stated the anti-Russia sentiment was due to media propaganda:

carmine9 wrote:

Media propaganda has whipped up hatred of Russia

I suggested that there may be other causes of anti-Russia sentiment and offered two possibilities: i) their invasion of Ukraine; 2) their committing of war crimes. For me, and many people, either of these are sufficiently convincing reasons to hate Russia.

PutinWarCriminal wrote:

Was it media propaganda that whipped up hatred of Russia? Or was it that they launched an unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine and decided to murder and rape a bunch of civilians while they were there...?

You doubled down and said it was definitely media propaganda (without offering any proof), and stated that I shouldn't believe something because of lies.

carmine9 wrote:

Of course.

You need to be a little more skeptical of what we are being told.

Every war we are lied to. Big lies. No difference here.

I then tried to clarify what I was being lied to about. I had previously offered several reasons why people may hate Russia, and you said that it wasn't those reasons but was due to media propaganda, and then stated that I shouldn't believe something because of lies. But, if the official narrative is that Russia invaded Ukraine and that Russia's invasion doesn't explain why people hate Russia (because that's due to media propaganda), then what could the big lie be other than that the official narrative is fictitious and that Russia never actually invaded Ukraine. So, I asked if that was the case:

PutinWarCriminal wrote:

So, it's a lie that Russia invaded Ukraine?

To which you said that wasn't what I was being lied to about. Then you went off on another tangent.

carmine9 wrote:

I seem to miss the comment where I said that Russia did not invade Ukraine.

So, let me spell this out for you: people hate Russia because they invaded Ukraine. There doesn't need to be any media propaganda to "whip up hatred of Russia" because Russia whipped up hatred of Russia all on their own by the act of invading Ukraine.

N.B. The war crimes just confirmed that everyone was right to hate Russia.