tydi6 wrote:
Maybe because faith in god(s) is, by definition, nonrational? Just a guess.
Faith in God is perfectly rational. The existence of a supreme being can be proven ontologically. Therefore, it is perfectly rational to put your faith in that supreme being.
But even if you consider it irrational, that doesn't explain brazen2 and her hatred of religion.
8/10 Data
Getting harder to pick out trends. Or maybe the trends have shifted. I have to look into what is going on, and where.
But in short, the world is getting worse but the US is plateauing. Usually a plateau comes for some time before a fall in deaths so the US could have some good news soon unless a new hot spot emerges.
7 day rolling average of daily deaths.
World: Sets a new cyclical high
US: on a high plateau
Brazil: still on a 5-week plateau
India: New high. Continues a remarkably steady and long stairstepping up (in wrong direction). They should hit and average of 1000 deaths per day next week. The US is at 1,035 deaths per day.
AZ FL CA TX do seem to have turned the corne. On all of them we are below peak and down compared to a week ago. I wonder if there are new problem states. GA and MS?
And will be interesting to see if the vaccines Russia and China are apparently putting out into the field will a) work and b) pressure the West to cut corners to approve quickly. Will be awfully embarassing if Russia and China start killing virus and we are dying behind walls of red tape.
Fat hurts wrote:
Theros wrote:
What did Georgia do to bring downs cases, hospitalizations rate of positives, etc?
Did they tighten restrictions? I don’t think there was a mask mandate or lockdowns. What was implemented?
In Georgia we believe in absolute freedom. Therefore, the virus should be free to infect as many people as possible.
Georgia is pro-gun and pro-virus.
Does anyone have a non idiotic answer?
I know the mayor of Atlanta instituted a mask mandate at some point. Did that lead to the decline? I haven’t read anything where additional restrictions were put in place in Georgia or by the governor. Quite the contrary. I doubt it just started going down on its own. Lower testing? What gives?
Lower testing is making things look better than they are.
Florida, hitting a new high for deaths is surprising and probably means the lag is more like 4 weeks for max death reported totals as opposed to 2-3 (last 2 days have been on part with usual Sunday/Monday numbers and don't explain a high #)
https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1293196987119079425
Theros wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
In Georgia we believe in absolute freedom. Therefore, the virus should be free to infect as many people as possible.
Georgia is pro-gun and pro-virus.
Does anyone have a non idiotic answer?
I know the mayor of Atlanta instituted a mask mandate at some point. Did that lead to the decline? I haven’t read anything where additional restrictions were put in place in Georgia or by the governor. Quite the contrary. I doubt it just started going down on its own. Lower testing? What gives?
You mean you want a serious answer?
The serious answer is that nothing has been done, which is the point of my sarcastic answer.
It really has gone down on its own. Exponential growth generally doesn't last forever (except in mathematics). So one explanation is that the virus has run out of easy targets. This brings the R value down and infections go down.
But I suspect that opening schools could start to turn things in the wrong direction again.
38 students in the Cherokee County School District have tested positive for COVID during the 6 days of school opening. Cherokee County school have ~32,000 students opting for in-class learning.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Mega-testing site opens at full capacity today in College Park. GET TESTED!
The mega-testing site which has the capacity to test 5,000 people a day is located at 1800 Sullivan Road, College Park, Georgia, 30337. Hours of operation are Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. from Aug. 10 through Aug. 26. Testing is available to all Georgians regardless of symptoms, however appointments and online registrations are recommended.
Test results will be available in 48-72 hours, and individuals will be provided with information on how to receive results once they are tested. Testing is available to all Georgia residents, regardless of the county they live in.
Widespread testing and contact tracing, along with social distancing, wearing masks or face coverings in public and frequent handwashing, are critical to preventing further spread of COVID-19 in Georgia.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
agip wrote:
8/10 Data
Getting harder to pick out trends. Or maybe the trends have shifted. I have to look into what is going on, and where.
But in short, the world is getting worse but the US is plateauing. Usually a plateau comes for some time before a fall in deaths so the US could have some good news soon unless a new hot spot emerges.
7 day rolling average of daily deaths.
World: Sets a new cyclical high
US: on a high plateau
Brazil: still on a 5-week plateau
India: New high. Continues a remarkably steady and long stairstepping up (in wrong direction). They should hit and average of 1000 deaths per day next week. The US is at 1,035 deaths per day.
AZ FL CA TX do seem to have turned the corne. On all of them we are below peak and down compared to a week ago. I wonder if there are new problem states. GA and MS?
And will be interesting to see if the vaccines Russia and China are apparently putting out into the field will a) work and b) pressure the West to cut corners to approve quickly. Will be awfully embarassing if Russia and China start killing virus and we are dying behind walls of red tape.
Russia and China are just conducting a phase 3 trial on the entire population because they do not care if people get hurt or if the vaccine candidate isn't effective. Phase 3 trials are critical because without them we can deploy a completely ineffective vaccine and leave a highly effective one sitting in a laboratory. There are a myriad of different approaches for a vaccine that are now candidates for phase 3 trials. There are RNA vaccines, vaccines using deactivated virus, vaccines using adenovirus, and may different variations within the many different categories. Most vaccines that go to phase 3 trials fail. A few will show some efficacy, but not enough to merit wide distribution. And if we are lucky, one or two will be good enough to merit approval. But the odds are higher that all the current candidates will fail and we will go back to the drawing board for a second round of phase 3 trials based off what was learned in the first round. And it may take several rounds of trials before we find the one that really works. The world record for going from identifying a virus to a successful phase 3 trial is four years for the mumps vaccine.
What we really do not want to have happen is a crappy vaccine getting a rushed approval and mass produced. That will cause a lot of resources currently in vaccine development to be redirected. Once we figure out that the vaccine is ineffective, we will have to wait even longer because we will have to restart vaccine development.
It is a slow process not because of red tape, but because of science. You need a large trial to really know whether the vaccine works. It takes time to find people to volunteer for the trial. Moderna could only get about 5k of the 30k volunteers needed within a few weeks of announcing their phase 3 candidate. More federal resources are needed to help push these trials along (better compensation for participants, more publicity to get volunteers, etc.). But we know how that is going.
Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease specialist at University of California, San Francisco, has been working with a team of researchers to understand how more people could go through their infections with minimal or no symptoms. About 40% of people infected with the virus don't have symptoms, according to an estimate last month by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Gandhi's team found masks make a difference.
"What the mask does is really reduce the amount of virus that you get in, if you do get infected," she said. "And by reducing that ... you have a lower dose, you're able to manage it, you're able to have a calm response and you have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all."
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
brazen2 wrote:
Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease specialist at University of California, San Francisco, has been working with a team of researchers to understand how more people could go through their infections with minimal or no symptoms. About 40% of people infected with the virus don't have symptoms, according to an estimate last month by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Gandhi's team found masks make a difference.
"What the mask does is really reduce the amount of virus that you get in, if you do get infected," she said. "And by reducing that ... you have a lower dose, you're able to manage it, you're able to have a calm response and you have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all."
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Testing makes no difference at all unless you can get your results within 48 hours. Even then, it only makes a difference if you test positive.
Don't get tested unless you are pretty sure you are infected.
The only tool we have today for stopping covid is the lockdown. Without lockdowns, nothing else will work.
agip wrote:
8/10 Data
Getting harder to pick out trends. Or maybe the trends have shifted. I have to look into what is going on, and where.
But in short, the world is getting worse but the US is plateauing. Usually a plateau comes for some time before a fall in deaths so the US could have some good news soon unless a new hot spot emerges.
7 day rolling average of daily deaths.
World: Sets a new cyclical high
US: on a high plateau
Brazil: still on a 5-week plateau
India: New high. Continues a remarkably steady and long stairstepping up (in wrong direction). They should hit and average of 1000 deaths per day next week. The US is at 1,035 deaths per day.
AZ FL CA TX do seem to have turned the corne. On all of them we are below peak and down compared to a week ago. I wonder if there are new problem states. GA and MS?
And will be interesting to see if the vaccines Russia and China are apparently putting out into the field will a) work and b) pressure the West to cut corners to approve quickly. Will be awfully embarassing if Russia and China start killing virus and we are dying behind walls of red tape.
But a rushed vaccine killing and harming millions no problem?
brazen2 wrote:
38 students in the Cherokee County School District have tested positive for COVID during the 6 days of school opening. Cherokee County school have ~32,000 students opting for in-class learning.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Any of the sick?
I bet not
137 deaths in Georgia reported today. Will be a pretty high USA death # with 400+ between Georgia and Florida alone. Not really enjoying this plateau with school looming.
Fat hurts wrote:
It really has gone down on its own.
Do you Trumpers even know you have a brain?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/24-times-trump-said-the-coronavirus-would-go-away/2020/04/30/d2593312-9593-4ec2-aff7-72c1438fca0e_video.htmlWear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
As the great George Carlin noted, its all bullspit and it's bad for you.
Fear mongering requires inflated numbers.
And 24/7 coverage.
42% of deaths reported today attributed to the past 7 days (58 this week - last Tuesday 51)
31% of deaths reported today attributed to 15+ days
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
36% of deaths over the past 4 days have been in nursing homes.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Fat hurts wrote:
Theros wrote:
I know the mayor of Atlanta instituted a mask mandate at some point. Did that lead to the decline? I haven’t read anything where additional restrictions were put in place in Georgia or by the governor. Quite the contrary. I doubt it just started going down on its own. Lower testing? What gives?
You mean you want a serious answer?
The serious answer is that nothing has been done, which is the point of my sarcastic answer.
It really has gone down on its own. Exponential growth generally doesn't last forever (except in mathematics). So one explanation is that the virus has run out of easy targets. This brings the R value down and infections go down.
But I suspect that opening schools could start to turn things in the wrong direction again.
The mayor of Atlanta did issue a "mask in public places" order in the middle of July. I understand that some other cities followed her lead, but couldn't say how widespread the practice is. If you have someone in authority giving coherent public health guidance, at least some people are going to take it to heart.
It might not be enough to control the virus, but it might be enough to have cause the apparent plateau or slowdown in new cases by now and it might help turn down the new deaths curve a bit in a couple weeks.
Monkeys typing wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
You mean you want a serious answer?
The serious answer is that nothing has been done, which is the point of my sarcastic answer.
It really has gone down on its own. Exponential growth generally doesn't last forever (except in mathematics). So one explanation is that the virus has run out of easy targets. This brings the R value down and infections go down.
But I suspect that opening schools could start to turn things in the wrong direction again.
The mayor of Atlanta did issue a "mask in public places" order in the middle of July. I understand that some other cities followed her lead, but couldn't say how widespread the practice is. If you have someone in authority giving coherent public health guidance, at least some people are going to take it to heart.
It might not be enough to control the virus, but it might be enough to have cause the apparent plateau or slowdown in new cases by now and it might help turn down the new deaths curve a bit in a couple weeks.
I haven't noticed any increase in mask-wearing. Everyone in Atlanta knows that the mask ordinance is not being enforced because of Kemp.
I still think the slowdown is just a natural thing that happens until something changes like school going back in session.
A statewide mask mandate would certainly help, but the rate of spread is more a function of human contacts than anything else.
220 fatalities in Texas. New cases back up to 8,913 after falling off the past four days. There are efforts underway to put in place a surge in testing capabilities. That is skewing numbers as Houston saw its positive % drop as the number of tests went way up. But last week, Texas overall had a very low rate of testing and the positive % jumped to 20% as a result. So, pick your favorite metric. If you want a low positive %, test as many people as you can. If you want a low positive case number but don't care about %, slack off on the testing.
If this is another week of seeing 8-9k new positives every day, it will be a pretty good signal that we have seen the limits of the efficacy of mask wearing and more social distancing is needed. School reopening is just going to make things worse. There are already teachers and staff testing positive (and that is in the districts where testing is available). If school districts just go for it, it is hard to imagine that we will not see a renewed outbreak in September with exponential growth again into October.
https://www.kltv.com/2020/08/10/east-texas-school-districts-report-covid-cases/