Down goes the Dow

Meanwhile more record highs are being achieved today just in time for K5's self-imposed deadline.

yeh - I've always thought that when you really, truly, completely understand that young women are never, ever going to be interested in you in an honest way...that's when you start dying.

I'm happily married and never been tempted, but one of the best pieces of marriage advice I've ever heard was to keep saying 'I'm going to be unfaithful...just not today'

cynical, but we are human beings.

This thing is going to 17,000.

never in the history of letsrun has a prediction (k5) been so wrong.

Yannix wrote:

Meanwhile more record highs are being achieved today just in time for K5's self-imposed deadline.

Record highs across the boards and a 26% gain for 2013. It was certainly a good year to be invested in the markets and not as good for those on the sidelines.

Did he put a time frame on his prediction? I think a crash is coming within the next year or two.

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

Here's the end of the month update:

Since the start of the thread:

Dow + 13.0%

Global Stocks (Vanguard Total World Index): +13.2%

K5's bad call continues to be stunningly bad, made worse by his refusal to accept his error.

One thing that really helps in investing is to admit when you are wrong. The digging in of heels is a recipe for bad performance.

The last number for 2013 is that global stocks were up 22.98%.

Trying to time the market is a fool's game.

Flagpole wrote:

I don't think he was being facetious. That is certainly a reality within the scope of many people's experiences.

You are correct though about retired people being more active and social than ever. My own personal experience with retired people shows that those who were active and social before retirement are active and social in retirement. For those people who can ONLY be social and active when they are working...man, what a sad thing that is. Here in the US we tie WAY too much importance on the work that we do. Our work should not define us. It's just something we do for money.

Which says nothing much more than that you have chosen your profession unwisely.

agip wrote:

This is true, unfortunately. Men suck at creating lasting relationships. When they do not have something useful (a job) to occupy themselves they are generally lost. It is easy to see why they die off so much more quickly than women.

yeh - I've always thought that when you really, truly, completely understand that young women are never, ever going to be interested in you in an honest way...that's when you start dying.

I'm happily married and never been tempted, but one of the best pieces of marriage advice I've ever heard was to keep saying 'I'm going to be unfaithful...just not today'

cynical, but we are human beings.[/quote]

Man, do you really feel this way Agip? Makes me really appreciate my wife (younger than me and looks great for her age). She still works because she wants to, not because she has to. I hope you didn't get that advice from a "counselor." I'm pretty dang cynical, but I vehemently disagree with you here.

Anyway, as for the thread, yes, it was a stunningly bad call by K5 thus far. 2014 will be interesting, because, historically, we tend to get decent returns following years like the one we just had. However, housing appears to be getting sluggish again and their will be some fiscal drag. We are more than ripe for a correction, but I suspect we go higher still as I have said on this entire thread. But, we are most definitely on a melt-up trajectory, and those rarely end well.

Well there is always this wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

I don't think he was being facetious. That is certainly a reality within the scope of many people's experiences.

You are correct though about retired people being more active and social than ever. My own personal experience with retired people shows that those who were active and social before retirement are active and social in retirement. For those people who can ONLY be social and active when they are working...man, what a sad thing that is. Here in the US we tie WAY too much importance on the work that we do. Our work should not define us. It's just something we do for money.

Which says nothing much more than that you have chosen your profession unwisely.

No, he's right. We are human beings, not human doings after all. However, if you can find a job you love, you will be a very happy man or woman.

Sagarin wrote:

agip wrote:

This is true, unfortunately. Men suck at creating lasting relationships. When they do not have something useful (a job) to occupy themselves they are generally lost. It is easy to see why they die off so much more quickly than women.

yeh - I've always thought that when you really, truly, completely understand that young women are never, ever going to be interested in you in an honest way...that's when you start dying.

I'm happily married and never been tempted, but one of the best pieces of marriage advice I've ever heard was to keep saying 'I'm going to be unfaithful...just not today'

cynical, but we are human beings.

Man, do you really feel this way Agip? Makes me really appreciate my wife (younger than me and looks great for her age). She still works because she wants to, not because she has to. I hope you didn't get that advice from a "counselor." I'm pretty dang cynical, but I vehemently disagree with you here.

Anyway, as for the thread, yes, it was a stunningly bad call by K5 thus far. 2014 will be interesting, because, historically, we tend to get decent returns following years like the one we just had. However, housing appears to be getting sluggish again and their will be some fiscal drag. We are more than ripe for a correction, but I suspect we go higher still as I have said on this entire thread. But, we are most definitely on a melt-up trajectory, and those rarely end well.[/quote]

how did you manage to foil the massively awesome lrc double quote system?

anyway. Yeah, I guess I do believe that about men and sex and dying. Maybe I'm off base for most people, but I think it makes sense for me. I'm certainly not proud of it, but don't we all have rich fantasy lives? Lord knows I do.

As for the market - I just can't believe valuations will get much higher in the US - the only way I see another big year is:

1) another stock bubble

2) big profit surge

lord I am hoping for the second.

I am selling some US and buying emerging markets and cheap global countries - Ireland, Spain, Italy, Argentina, Russia, China, Israel. I can't get excited about the US at these valuations. I would guess a 6% return for 2014, but that is worth nothing.

And with my own money I bought a 5% position in TBF - I have to believe long term interest rates will rise.

The comfort of the rich depends upon an abundant supply of the poor.

Sagarin wrote:

yeh - I've always thought that when you really, truly, completely understand that young women are never, ever going to be interested in you in an honest way...that's when you start dying.

I'm happily married and never been tempted, but one of the best pieces of marriage advice I've ever heard was to keep saying 'I'm going to be unfaithful...just not today'

cynical, but we are human beings.

Man, do you really feel this way Agip? Makes me really appreciate my wife (younger than me and looks great for her age). She still works because she wants to, not because she has to. I hope you didn't get that advice from a "counselor." I'm pretty dang cynical, but I vehemently disagree with you here.

[/quote]

Hell, I've been unfaithful more times than I could count and I'm still married. She probably has too for that matter. Variety is the spice of life.

Thanks to the recent direction this thread has taken, I'm now seeing ads on the page for horny milfs.

Well there is always this wrote:

Which says nothing much more than that you have chosen your profession unwisely.

INCORRECT!

Most of us NEED to work, and so we talk ourselves into believing that we are to LOVE what we do. Only a very small percentage actually do love the work they do.

MOST people who say they love their job, love it within the parameters of HAVING to do it. As in, it's better than digging ditches, or if they have a moment or two a week that they actually like, they convince themselves that they actually love that.

In our society, it is a good thing to say that you love your job...supposed to demonstrate that you are a serious hard-working person, and we do value that in America. But, this is not as it should be. We don't even yet live to age 80 yet on average here, and the last 5 of those years can be tough, so what people do with they work to age 70 is that they give themselves maybe 5 years of time in which they can actually relax and enjoy life while not working. Man, that's way too little time if you ask me.

Loving your job is really more of a personality thing than a finding the right job thing. HAVING to show up...HAVING to produce good work, HAVING to answer to someone (a boss, a customer), gets old after a while. I'm an ISFJ, and we're the most happy in retirement. Has nothing to do with not yet finding a the right job.

NO JOB is as good as waking up and doing whatever the hell you want to do that day.

if you feel this way flagpole why do you intend to work another 13 years. Why not retire sooner?

INCORRECT! (as usual)

MOST people make bad decisions out of some combination of cowardice and lack of imagination. As a result MOST people choose their profession unwisely. As did you.

Sorry, I know it is painful to look back at a decision that cannot be undone and realize that it was made primarily through COWARDICE and lack of imagination.

And of course, your own lack of integrity, displayed so many times on these very boards, will render you unable to admit it.

I feel for you, brother.

Flagpole wrote:

I'm an ISFJ, and we're the most happy in retirement. Has nothing to do with not yet finding a the right job.

NO JOB is as good as waking up and doing whatever the hell you want to do that day.

You need to retake the Myers-Briggs Flagpole. No way are you an "I." I mostly agree, but I find the most enjoyment in helping and giving to people. It has it's own intrinsic rewards that no job or personal hobby can provide. Hopefully we will all do this in retirement (I am semi-retired).