57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

No doubt. This week has been definitely wonky. Cases down, but mostly due to tests. Trump getting his wish I suppose. Questionable positive %s. That being said, deaths-wise it’s about what you’d expect, which is to say a plateau that will probably last for a while.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

No doubt. This week has been definitely wonky. Cases down, but mostly due to tests. Trump getting his wish I suppose. Questionable positive %s. That being said, deaths-wise it’s about what you’d expect, which is to say a plateau that will probably last for a while.

I think the deaths in the 4 problem states are falling unrealistically fast.

Just shocking amount of lack of leadership, no other country in the World has been close to be hit as hard as the US, short of maybe the country with the other dictatorwannabe, Brazil.

57 deaths reported today in Georgia. 1000 new cases the day before. 7 day death average highest since re-opening...

...says who? CNN, FoxNews, USAToday....why do so many people buy whatever the tell-a-vision "programming" feeds them? There are no overrun hospitals or morgues...why are so many of you buying this BS? Where is the legit proof? Every day Johns Hopkins and their death and fear porn map is updated and no on questions anything...seen it on CNN....its FACTS and TRUTH for most gullible people.

SprintTriathlon wrote:

Just shocking amount of lack of leadership, no other country in the World has been close to be hit as hard as the US, short of maybe the country with the other dictatorwannabe, Brazil.

discounting san marino and andorra, US is 8th. Worse than Brazil and better than Sweden.

But, hey, all these numbers are counted differently,so huge pinches of salt everywhere, but it just shows you cant make sweeping generalisations like that.

agip wrote:

no, I don't see that one as a loaded stat. But many or even most of your posts are indeed 'loaded' stats. that mean a lot politically, usually used by trumpists.

brazen2 wrote:

If I gave the following stats, would you interpret these are pro-right wing or pro-left wing? Why?

Whites make up 60% of GA's population

African-Americans makes up 31% of GA's population

When race is known:

Whites account for 46% of cases, about 35% of hospitalizations and about 45% of deaths

African-Americans account for 40% of cases, about 45% of hospitalizations and about 45% of deaths

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What is weird is viewing this disease through a political lens. This disease doesn't care if you are right wing or left wing. It is disingenuous to not report a stat just because it supports or doesn't support a certain political narrative.

Do you not think Cases/Deaths/Hospitalization rate by age is an important statistic in understanding and combating this virus? Just a cursory look at the data demonstrates that the elderly are disproportionately vulnerable. Do you not think this this is notable? Should personal measures be taken knowing this information? Or, should we ignore it because one "side" attempts to use the data to support their argument?

I hope you understand that this is a statistic that is reported on the CDC website and on various state Department of Health websites. Massachusetts, Vermont, and others include this data in COVID dashboards. Do you think the GADPH should not include a bar graph which includes data on cases/hospitalizations/deaths based on age group? Are they or the CDC including "politically loaded" data on their sites?

It is interesting that the right wingers on this thread have also attacked the data I've presented.

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Realize that COVID is not a political disease

The four largest GA counties (Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb) have seen declining cases for the last 15 days outside the 14-day window (Jul11-Jul26). Unless there are some data reporting backlogs, the short term forecast shows a continuing decline in cases. 14-day case levels are at 30+ day lows as of Jul26 data.

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The Unkle wrote:

dunderhead wrote:

In partnership with Brian Kemp? Isn't that the idiot who sued the mayors for mandating wearing masks? He seems a little confused.

The mayors issued "guidelines".

That's how dishonest this all has been.

Guidelines enforced as laws.

agip wrote:

I think the deaths in the 4 problem states are falling unrealistically fast.

Why? Deaths are following the same pattern as it has everywhere the

disease has gotten established enough to go exponential.

Example:

---

Covid hit Stockholm like a storm in mid-March. One day I was seeing people with appendicitis and kidney stones, the usual things you see in the emergency room. The next day all those patients were gone and the only thing coming in to the hospital was covid. Practically everyone who was tested had covid, regardless of what the presenting symtom was. People came in with a nose bleed and they had covid. They came in with stomach pain and they had covid.

Then, after a few months, all the covid patients disappeared. It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative.

---

The data shows it takes about 4 weeks to reach 'herd immunity', which the definition

is that R is less than 1 so cases are decreasing. The flatness of the curve after that

4 weeks is going to be whether the disease is moving into new areas--the

overlapping curves for the new areas will flatten things out.

New York City, that seems to have been seeded pretty uniformly and is overall

densely populated, had a pretty sharp decline. Sweden was flatter because it

moved out from Stockholm to the rest of the country, but per the article listed,

Stockholm itself it followed the NYC curve.

For the US south. Looks like the riots jump started things in those states

all at the same time, so there will probably be a sharp decline. Not as sharp as

NYC, as there are suburbs and surrounding populations to round the

curve a bit, but it will probably be pretty sharp.

Thing is the riots may have saved Trump's candidacy. One, it showed maybe

the anti police positions have gone a bit too far, and two, without the riots

jump starting Covid, the southern states may have ended up peaking about

election time. With this timing instead, it will probably be essentially gone

there.

Yesterday's reported death distribution:

31% attributed to last 7 days

30% attributed to 8-15 days ago

39% attributed to 15+ days ago

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7-day rolling average for new hospitalizations lowest since Jul14

Current COVID hospitalizations lowest since Jul16

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WTF??? wrote:

57 deaths reported today in Georgia. 1000 new cases the day before. 7 day death average highest since re-opening...

...says who? CNN, FoxNews, USAToday....why do so many people buy whatever the tell-a-vision "programming" feeds them? There are no overrun hospitals or morgues...why are so many of you buying this BS? Where is the legit proof? Every day Johns Hopkins and their death and fear porn map is updated and no on questions anything...seen it on CNN....its FACTS and TRUTH for most gullible people.

I live in Georgia and I just learned that a friend and fellow church member is fighting for his life on a ventilator because of covid. Also, my brother was ill with it a few weeks ago and he's still not fully recovered. It's all too real to me.

Hope you are right, but there are a lot of questions around the accuracy of the hospitalizations numbers since the reporting changes.

179 deaths in Florida, one week ago it was 62...haven’t looked at it but this week figures to be a plateau more than a decline.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Hope you are right, but there are a lot of questions around the accuracy of the hospitalizations numbers since the reporting changes.

179 deaths in Florida, one week ago it was 62...haven’t looked at it but this week figures to be a plateau more than a decline.

Hospitalizations have followed cases uniformly and deaths have followed hospitalizations and cases uniformly on the way up the curve (pre-change) and thus far hospitalizations have followed cases down the curve. The hospitalization/case/death data may not be completely accurate, but I think there is enough reliable data to form a confident model. In addition the hospitalization curve has been plateaued and gradual decline - what you would expect given the case numbers.

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agip wrote:

I think the deaths in the 4 problem states are falling unrealistically fast.

Not really seeing this. There are projections from the top model that Florida will have 19,000 deaths by December 1. That was unthinkable in May. The cases are down a bit but it appears to be at least strongly correlated to a decline in testing. Really no end in sight. Progress in Texas seems to stop and start.

I agree with ya, just look at this for instance. Hospitals just not reporting from one day to the next etc. I don’t think there’s a conspiracy, I just think the data is not ironed out just yet.

https://twitter.com/jasonsalemi/status/1291815893878444033?s=21

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I agree with ya, just look at this for instance. Hospitals just not reporting from one day to the next etc. I don’t think there’s a conspiracy, I just think the data is not ironed out just yet.

https://twitter.com/jasonsalemi/status/1291815893878444033?s=21

I wouldn't be surprised if this were a data timing issue rather than a conspiracy to keep numbers down. If you looked at the number of cases or deaths on the GADPH site and compared it to yesterday afternoon, you could theorize that GA's is underreporting their data since it has not changed. Actually, they haven't released today's numbers yet. I'd assume that not all the data had been updated yet in his instance. It is an issue with using an API from a national database or using an aggregator and expecting realtime data. Overtime the data will be correct, but not necessarily at the time it is pulled. If you look at the Covidtracking.com site, you'll see discrepancies in GA data because of when they pulled the data via the API. It looks like in one of this guy's later tweets he included something about the data being corrected now.

I do like the FL dashboard. though. :)

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More are churches defying large gathering orders and indoor gathering orders. And it turns out the young boy who died in Georgia came into contact with Covid at a church.

It’s a shame.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1236220