malmo wrote:
Your outs are determined contemporaneously, not posthumously.
The information that you have is that you have a 15 card out, two of those giving you the nuts. You will always have pot odds in your favor with a 15 card out.
You have additional information that the board is paired. Your presumption is that someone 'might' have trips, even so you can out draw them.
Since the betting action doesn't indicate anything (the guy with the quads played his hand right even though the result wasn't in his favor) you're going to call any small raise. Any sizable raise here is where your table savvy will come in. You never assume your opponent flopped quads. Your biggest worry is that he already filled up, but the action didn't tell you anything. Your opponent might raise with trips, over pairs, or two pair with an Ace kicker to test you. Since he didn't bet really big your draw and pot odds are in your favor.
If you cannot play a 15 card out you should be buying T-bills.
One of the worst things about televised poker (or best things, depending on your perspective) is showing win percentages during play. It completely distorts the actual dynamic at the table. Poker is played by analyzing and comparing known information to the unknown. You do not have the luxury of replaying the hand with known probabilities.
I never look at a paired flop and assume that all of my outs to a straight and a flush are good.