Current stock market (Nov. 2010) not reflecting reality

Do you pull some of these dates out of your ass? People were saying to be out of stocks in 1996?? You mean the year the Dow rose 26%? After going up 33% in 1995. After the Dow had gone from 2365 in Oct 1990 to almost 5100 at the end of 1995. And 6500 at the end of 1996? Likewise, people didn't give up on the market in 1992 either. That was the year after the Dow rose 20% in 1991. And keep in mind despite the 3 month bear market in 1990 the Dow was only down 6% in 1990 and that was the only down year on the Dow between 1982 and 1992. Yes people were pessimistic in 2002 and 2008 and many people (retail investors, not institutional investors) had given up on the market and wanted out. But you are way out in left field saying that was the case in 1992 and 1996. Don't just pull stuff out of your ass. Think a little bit. You spend so much time typing sh!t on here you don't have any time to actually use your brain.

Flagpole wrote:

2) "People" or experts give up on stocks all the time brother...for short periods. Equities were DEAD in 1978...yeah, how did that work out? 1987 we were being punished for the ME decade. Stocks bounced back. 1992, 1996, 2002, 2008...all bad, and people were saying to stay out of stocks that a new dawn had arrived. Ha! I made 43% in 2003, 34.7% in 2009, and so far 15.1% in 2010 as of this morning, not counting the upward move so far today.ut FUN!

Yes, I'm serious. There are permabears who are ALWAYS there, and they become loudest at two different times...1) when the market has seen an extended rally, and 2) when the market has seen an extended down period. They are silent only during stagnancy, and even then, just silent in comparison to the other times. So, yes, I remember very well 1992 and 1996 when there were some economists who were warning that we shouldn't be in the stock market. Maybe YOU don't remember. Can't just look back at how the market did and THINK that people were all for the market in that year. Remember how DOWN on the market MOST people were in 2009? And, I'm not just talking the beginning of the year either, but for the WHOLE year. I made 34.7% that year, which was the second best year I have ever had.

Sure, there's always people who have the opinion that the market is overvalued or that stocks will generate poor returns over x years going forward. But in your initial quote, you talk about people or experts "giving up on stocks." That implies capitualtion...i.e. the market has been doing so horrible for so long I'm giving up on it (that's what happened in 1974, 1982, 2002, and 2009). In 1992 and 1996 there was no capitualtion. The vast majority of investors - both institutional and retail - were positive about the market. In '96 you did have a few experts in the minority who felt the market was overvalued. But the general sentiment was bullish in '92 and '96. Again you are pulling dates out of your a$$.

Flagpole's Smarter Twin wrote:

Incorrect. The stock market will drop back below 10,000 by mid-March.

Look everyone - this guy can predict the stock market...and, so optimistic (there's nothing that helps the economy more than being negative about the economy). Oh, but you want it to dip below 10,000 because that helps in your case against the (lets all say it together) "Liberal Agenda."

Where were you 4 years ago?

before the spelling police storm in, i meant to write "capitulation"....i misspelled it twice.

And when many are bullish is exactly the time when the Doom and Gloomers come out of the woodwork and declare it all silly. I stand by my statement and the dates.

Then everything you've written below makes no sense. So you're basically saying that there are always some people who bearish on the market. No sh!t sherlock. There also people who are always bullish on the market. Guess what? Both groups are right sometimes and wrong sometimes.

Well then, you can hardly argue against me then eh? Once again, while there are ALWAYS Doom and Gloomers out there, sometimes they get louder, and contrary to what you are saying, they were louder in 1992 and 1996 than they should have been. I was investing then, and I take it very seriously, so I know.

Are you serious wrote:

Then everything you've written below makes no sense. So you're basically saying that there are always some people who bearish on the market. No sh!t sherlock. There also people who are always bullish on the market. Guess what? Both groups are right sometimes and wrong sometimes.

Flagpole wrote:

And when many are bullish is exactly the time when the Doom and Gloomers come out of the woodwork and declare it all silly. I stand by my statement and the dates.

Why point out specific years if your point is that there are always doom and gloomers? There were also doom and gloomers in 1995 who were louder than they should have been. You didn't mention that year.You've lost the argument. Its over. Please allow me to call you a cab.

Flagpole wrote:

Well then, you can hardly argue against me then eh? Once again, while there are ALWAYS Doom and Gloomers out there, sometimes they get louder, and contrary to what you are saying, they were louder in 1992 and 1996 than they should have been. I was investing then, and I take it very seriously, so I know.

Are you serious wrote:

Then everything you've written below makes no sense. So you're basically saying that there are always some people who bearish on the market. No sh!t sherlock. There also people who are always bullish on the market. Guess what? Both groups are right sometimes and wrong sometimes.

Because those were the fun years to mention, and 1995 wasn't as bad as 1992 or 1996 with regard to the bears screaming, and they were wrong of course...long term anyway which is how I invest.No cab for me brother.

Are you serious wrote:

Why point out specific years if your point is that there are always doom and gloomers? There were also doom and gloomers in 1995 who were louder than they should have been. You didn't mention that year.

You've lost the argument. Its over. Please allow me to call you a cab.

Flagpole wrote:

Well then, you can hardly argue against me then eh? Once again, while there are ALWAYS Doom and Gloomers out there, sometimes they get louder, and contrary to what you are saying, they were louder in 1992 and 1996 than they should have been. I was investing then, and I take it very seriously, so I know.

I was investing then too. There was no real difference between the amount of bears in 95 vs 96 or 92. very much in the minority all of those years.

Flagpole wrote:

Because those were the fun years to mention, and 1995 wasn't as bad as 1992 or 1996 with regard to the bears screaming, and they were wrong of course...long term anyway which is how I invest.

No cab for me brother.

Are you serious wrote:

Why point out specific years if your point is that there are always doom and gloomers? There were also doom and gloomers in 1995 who were louder than they should have been. You didn't mention that year.

You've lost the argument. Its over. Please allow me to call you a cab.

Flagpole wrote:

1995 wasn't as bad as 1992 or 1996 with regard to the bears screaming

Can you actually provide some evidence for that assertion, or is it just based on your amazing recall of hundreds of articles in the financial media some 15 or so years ago?

People, start SNIPPING the quotes, people are quoting 12 paragraphis and responding with a 2 sentences. Stop it.

Gold $1426, Silver $30.21

Don't cry to me oh baby!

Your future's in an oblong box, yeah

Don't cry to me oh baby!

Shoulda seen it a comin' on....

Die die die my dollar

Don't utter a single word

Die die die my dollar

Just shut your pretty mouth

I'll be seeing you again

I'll be seeing you in Hell!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8gJSMoOJc

Alan Greenspan, 1966:

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value...The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.”

Silver and Gold, Silver and Gold, sing it, bitches:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMlqn_Hjyi8

Are you serious wrote:

Why point out specific years if your point is that there are always doom and gloomers? There were also doom and gloomers in 1995 who were louder than they should have been. You didn't mention that year.

You've lost the argument. Its over. Please allow me to call you a cab.

You are clearly right. Indeed, it was very clear that you were right several posts ago. The problem is that the person with whom you are "debating" is incapable of shutting up and letting someone else (in particular, someone who has beaten him) have the last word.

So, well done. But I don't think you will ever get him to just shut up and admit it. Nobody else ever has.

Based on my amazing recall...and I'm not kidding. Well, that and comments I make to myself in my spreadsheet for every year. Really, this is an odd thing to be harping on.

flip side wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

1995 wasn't as bad as 1992 or 1996 with regard to the bears screaming

Can you actually provide some evidence for that assertion, or is it just based on your amazing recall of hundreds of articles in the financial media some 15 or so years ago?

We'll have to disagree brother. In 92 we were still coming out of some economic funk, and bears were warning that it was premature, and in 96 we had had one more year of gains past 95, so they were louder in 96 than in 95.

Are you serious wrote:

I was investing then too. There was no real difference between the amount of bears in 95 vs 96 or 92. very much in the minority all of those years.

Flagpole wrote:

Because those were the fun years to mention, and 1995 wasn't as bad as 1992 or 1996 with regard to the bears screaming, and they were wrong of course...long term anyway which is how I invest.

No cab for me brother.