I predict 2:47 at Paris - because he's set himself an unrealistic target. He'll probably be in about 2:37 shape - but battling to go through half way in 75 will probably f*** him up big time over the second half, and this is the problem he face.... by setting himself a race target which is arbitrary rather than based on his fitness indicators he will suffer.
Just think of the carnage which happens every year with people who go out on the 2:15/16/17 major games group - even though deep down they know they're probably in 2:19 shape and multiply it by 10.
2 years ago when I ran 2:30:31 at London alot of people said to me "aren't you upset you didn't go under 2:30?" - in all honesty I wasn't. My indicators in the build up pointed to 2:32, so that was the pace I went out at - and nailed the second half. Last year, when I was a bit fitter, I went sub.
I'd very much like to run 2:25 one year - it's a medium to long term ambition, but there's no point going off at that pace if I'm not in that shape.