Fat hurts wrote:
Also, the thread is whether legacy automakers will surpass Tesla.
Yes it is. And it looks like the consensus is that in 2-3 years VW will be the first to do it.
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Fat hurts wrote:
Investor noob wrote:
Yep there are plenty of dealers that sell at MSRP. They are easy to find. I paid MSRP for my Rav4 Prime and we are going to pay MSRP for our ID4 or BZ4X, whichever comes first. Only suckers pay markup. Model 3 used to be 37, now it's 47k. Model Y used to be 43k, now it's a whooping 67k. So is there really a difference between dealers and no dealers? The only difference is Tesla is making everyone pay 24k more for Model Y than two years ago.
The difference is no haggling and no surprises. With Tesla they honor the price of your order. With a sleazy dealership, you never know.
And you are being misleading about the price increase of the Model Y. The 43k lower range version was only on sale in the US for a couple of months. The price has not gone up by 24k.
It's not easy to get a Mach E or F150 Lighting without paying a significant markup over MSRP.
Toyota only plans to sell 7000 BZ4X this year in the US. Good luck finding one at MSRP.
Will your dealer put in writing that they will sell you the ID4 at MSRP when it arrives? You might have decent luck with that one.
It is easy to get an ID4 at MSRP, you just have to get on a waiting list. There are thousands of people on forums and FB groups online who have confirmed they paid MSRP and share which dealer doesn't mark up. That's how I got my Rav4 Prime at MSRP, which is just as hard to find as any BEV now. I would not buy them if they have markup. No haggling or surprises.
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These are the 2021 BEV global sales for the top 5. The takeaway is that the global market is growing quickly and will be competitive. I don't think Tesla is going to fade away but there are a lot of players becoming serious about the market. Tesla had a big head start, but it's usually wise to "bet on the field".
All-electric car sales in Q1-Q4 2021 (vs previous year):
1) Tesla: 936,172 and 21% share (vs 23%)
2) SAIC (incl. SAIC-GM-Wuling): 609,730 and 13% share
3) Volkswagen Group: 451,131 and 10% share (vs 11%)
4) BYD: 323,143 and 7% share
5) Hyundai Motor Group: 216,562 and 5% shareTop 5 total: 2,536,738 (55% share)
others: over 2 million (45% share)
Total: over 4.6 million80 -
Alrighty wrote:
Investor noob wrote:
. . . Any Rav or CR-V has a smoother ride because they are real SUVs that you can take off road. . . .How to say "I'm trolling" without saying "I'm trolling".
What do you mean? Rav4 Prime is great off road. No Tesla can do this. In case you aren't familiar, RAV4 Prime has 302hp. It's the second fastest Toyota behind the Supra. This isn't a Prius.
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Fat hurts wrote:
Investor noob wrote:
Waiting lists are long for any car. Rav4 Prime, ID4, Ioniq5, EV6, BZ4X etc are all 1 year+. Musk said himself that prices are high due to skyrocketing material costs, not demand.
Musk has also said demand has far exceeded even Tesla's expectations.
It's true that demand for all cars is outstripping supply.
But if material costs and (chip) shortages are the only problem, why is it that Tesla's US sales are growing more than 50% year over year while the others see sales falling?
Well yeah when Tesla only sells 24k vehicles it's a big increase. But 24k pales in comparison to GM with 219k, Toyota with 197k, and Stellantis with 163k.
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Volkswagen begins production of the ID4 in Chattanooga this month which will ramp up production of their EVs. I'm hoping my year long wait time will turn to 6 months or less. At 42k, the ID4 is already the best bang for the buck. That's 32k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. Next year they are introducing a 35k ID4, that's 25k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. What an incredible value. For the average American who drives 39 miles per day, this is the perfect, affordable SUV EV for the 2 car family.
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Is it a musk? wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Also, the thread is whether legacy automakers will surpass Tesla.
Yes it is. And it looks like the consensus is that in 2-3 years VW will be the first to do it.
If that's the consensus, then the consensus is dead wrong.
The consensus needs to answer the question of where VW will get enough batteries to catch Tesla. Unless VW has a super-secret supply chain, it's just not going to happen.
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Investor noob wrote:
Alrighty wrote:
How to say "I'm trolling" without saying "I'm trolling".
What do you mean? Rav4 Prime is great off road. No Tesla can do this. In case you aren't familiar, RAV4 Prime has 302hp. It's the second fastest Toyota behind the Supra. This isn't a Prius.
I don't know how good the Model Y and Model X are off-road, but I'm betting they are just as good or better than the RAV4. The Model Y has 480hp and The Model X has 1020hp. So power-wise they beat the RAV4 Prime by a lot. Maybe the RAV4 has higher ground clearance?
Tesla SUVs are built for performance, handling, cargo space, and road trips. That's what most people buy SUVs for anyway.
But if you really want an off-road Tesla, wait for the Cybertruck.
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Investor noob wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Musk has also said demand has far exceeded even Tesla's expectations.
It's true that demand for all cars is outstripping supply.
But if material costs and (chip) shortages are the only problem, why is it that Tesla's US sales are growing more than 50% year over year while the others see sales falling?
Well yeah when Tesla only sells 24k vehicles it's a big increase. But 24k pales in comparison to GM with 219k, Toyota with 197k, and Stellantis with 163k.
The 24k was for the month of June last year. This year it was 39k for June.
The point is that Tesla is selling a lot more cars than last year while the others are selling a lot less. The legacy manufacturers are not catching up. They are falling further behind.
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Investor noob wrote:
Volkswagen begins production of the ID4 in Chattanooga this month which will ramp up production of their EVs. I'm hoping my year long wait time will turn to 6 months or less. At 42k, the ID4 is already the best bang for the buck. That's 32k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. Next year they are introducing a 35k ID4, that's 25k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. What an incredible value. For the average American who drives 39 miles per day, this is the perfect, affordable SUV EV for the 2 car family.
If you can get that ID4 at MSRP with the full tax rebate intact then you are definitely getting a good bargain. I know you will enjoy the car.
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Fat hurts wrote:
Investor noob wrote:
Volkswagen begins production of the ID4 in Chattanooga this month which will ramp up production of their EVs. I'm hoping my year long wait time will turn to 6 months or less. At 42k, the ID4 is already the best bang for the buck. That's 32k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. Next year they are introducing a 35k ID4, that's 25k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. What an incredible value. For the average American who drives 39 miles per day, this is the perfect, affordable SUV EV for the 2 car family.
If you can get that ID4 at MSRP with the full tax rebate intact then you are definitely getting a good bargain. I know you will enjoy the car.
With the exception of very limited production/high demand vehicles like the Ford Raptor or MB G wagon, most dealers will sell vehicles at MSRP if you pre-order. You may have to put down a nonrefundable deposit, but it should be a nominal amount. Manufacturers are anticipating better production output in 2023 so a lot of dealers just want to get preorders so they will get better allotments in 2023.
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Precious Roy wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
If you can get that ID4 at MSRP with the full tax rebate intact then you are definitely getting a good bargain. I know you will enjoy the car.
With the exception of very limited production/high demand vehicles like the Ford Raptor or MB G wagon, most dealers will sell vehicles at MSRP if you pre-order. You may have to put down a nonrefundable deposit, but it should be a nominal amount. Manufacturers are anticipating better production output in 2023 so a lot of dealers just want to get preorders so they will get better allotments in 2023.
All deposits are refundable. I know someone with a deposit on an ID4, Ioniq5, EV6, Solterra, Model Y and Ariya. It's literally risk free. If any dealer says the deposit is non refundable then run away. I'm in a lot of EV groups on FB and nearly everyone puts down a refundable deposit and pays MSRP. Only the impatient people who want a car from the lot today pay markup.
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Investor noob wrote:
Volkswagen begins production of the ID4 in Chattanooga this month which will ramp up production of their EVs. I'm hoping my year long wait time will turn to 6 months or less. At 42k, the ID4 is already the best bang for the buck. That's 32k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. Next year they are introducing a 35k ID4, that's 25k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. What an incredible value. For the average American who drives 39 miles per day, this is the perfect, affordable SUV EV for the 2 car family.
Looks like it could be the start of EVs finally becoming mainstream - one of the reasons experts are predicting VW will outsell Tesla in 2-3 years. If they can combine affordability with quality, it will be a game changer.
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Is it a musk? wrote:
Investor noob wrote:
Volkswagen begins production of the ID4 in Chattanooga this month which will ramp up production of their EVs. I'm hoping my year long wait time will turn to 6 months or less. At 42k, the ID4 is already the best bang for the buck. That's 32k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. Next year they are introducing a 35k ID4, that's 25k after tax credit and state rebate in MA. What an incredible value. For the average American who drives 39 miles per day, this is the perfect, affordable SUV EV for the 2 car family.
Looks like it could be the start of EVs finally becoming mainstream - one of the reasons experts are predicting VW will outsell Tesla in 2-3 years. If they can combine affordability with quality, it will be a game changer.
Again, where will VW get the batteries?
According to VW's own plan they don't expect to outsell Tesla in 2-3 years.
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Fat hurts wrote:
Is it a musk? wrote:
Looks like it could be the start of EVs finally becoming mainstream - one of the reasons experts are predicting VW will outsell Tesla in 2-3 years. If they can combine affordability with quality, it will be a game changer.
Again, where will VW get the batteries?
According to VW's own plan they don't expect to outsell Tesla in 2-3 years.
Best to pose that question to the experts.
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Is it a musk? wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Again, where will VW get the batteries?
According to VW's own plan they don't expect to outsell Tesla in 2-3 years.
Best to pose that question to the experts.
The whole media storm about this comes out of a report from Bloomberg intelligence. That's really the only "expert" who is saying VW will catch Tesla by 2025. The CEO of VW was asked about it and he basically said, "Sure, we can do that."
But VW's own plans say different. They hope to partner with three different firms to source six 40 GWh battery factories in the EU by 2030.
That's only enough to make about 4 million EVS ---- in 2030.
Tesla will be up to 4 million in 2024.
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Fat hurts wrote:
Is it a musk? wrote:
Best to pose that question to the experts.
The whole media storm about this comes out of a report from Bloomberg intelligence. That's really the only "expert" who is saying VW will catch Tesla by 2025. The CEO of VW was asked about it and he basically said, "Sure, we can do that."
But VW's own plans say different. They hope to partner with three different firms to source six 40 GWh battery factories in the EU by 2030.
That's only enough to make about 4 million EVS ---- in 2030.
Tesla will be up to 4 million in 2024.
Can we a copy of your report on this to compare?
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Is it a musk? wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
The whole media storm about this comes out of a report from Bloomberg intelligence. That's really the only "expert" who is saying VW will catch Tesla by 2025. The CEO of VW was asked about it and he basically said, "Sure, we can do that."
But VW's own plans say different. They hope to partner with three different firms to source six 40 GWh battery factories in the EU by 2030.
That's only enough to make about 4 million EVS ---- in 2030.
Tesla will be up to 4 million in 2024.
Can we a copy of your report on this to compare?
Can we see a copy of your report on this to compare?
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Is it a musk? wrote:
Is it a musk? wrote:
Can we a copy of your report on this to compare?
Can we see a copy of your report on this to compare?
Figures on VW come from here:
Volkswagen has already committed tens of billions of dollars toward
battery development and its necessary supply chain, including plans for
six 40 GWh battery factories in the EU by 2030.At 60kWh per vehicle, you get batteries for 4 million EVs per year in 2030. VW might be able to also source batteries elsewhere, but this does show the scale they are planning for 2030.
Tesla officials have been quoted many times saying that production growth will be well above 50% for the next few years. And Tesla has a credible plan to do this. Not only have they signed long term contracts with every major battery supplier on Earth, Tesla has already started making its own cells. VW has no plan to make its own cells.
We start with Tesla's 2021 deliveries of 930,422. Only 50% CAGR would be 4.7 million in 2025, which means they would likely be at a run rate of over 4 million by the end of 2024. (By the way, assuming 60% growth gets you to 6 million in 2025).
So, it looks rather absurd to think that VW will catch Tesla by 2025.
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zxcvvzxc wrote:
As you financial geniuses know, Apple is the future of Tesla, i.e. a niche company catering only to those few people who want status brands, high in profits, low in revenue and market share. This is inevitable since other companies can build everything it does more cheaply.
Not close since their other status brands they are already stronger.
For example, I may get an EV in the next few years, but it would be an Audi A7. No interest in Tesla.
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