57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

Hope you’re right. That was a worse-than-usual Florida number. I was optimistic/hopeful that last week was the worst for it and Texas. Today’s number will be out soon and we’ll get an idea. A new all-time high would be bad news. Under 200 would be a good sign. There will be a plateau not a dip though, which means it’s hard to see deaths under 600 on avg. for a while even if no spikes

225 deaths reported in Florida. That is a slight (9) increase over last week. Peak for deaths somewhat murky if it will be this week or last week, but I'd expect this week now with something like 1400.

Remember the best protections

In times of a pandemic, it’s understandable to want to do everything possible to protect yourself from becoming ill. While wearing a mask will prevent you from spreading COVID-19 if you have it and don’t know it, physical distancing and frequent, thorough handwashing are still the best ways to avoid getting COVID-19.

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Social distance

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GA seems up to date on reporting deaths (hopefully).

Today's report:

78% of reported deaths attributed to last 7 days (42% to last 2)

10% of reported deaths attributed to 8-14 days ago

6% of reported deaths attributed to 15+ days

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Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

If theoretical "27 days from case to death" that has been floated around here holds true, GA should reach death/day peak at or around Friday, Aug07.

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Social distance

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GET TESTED

agree,

im not arguing wth agip, and im not replying to his response since its a bit silly. im just trying to put another side to the same statistics.

hope rather than doom. both are equally valid when using stats.

Texas at 8,706 new cases and 235 fatalities today. Rio Grande Valley is still in bad shape. The major metro areas are seeing hospitalizations come down, but positive counts are steady or rising.

Not a hint of further action from the Governor. He did say that local school boards had the power to decide whether to open school or not, but local health authorities could not order schools closed. But then the state education association said districts would not get funding if they were not open for face to face instruction. San Antonio area superintendent said he would sue the state if they did not provided funding.

Good article on data problems in Texas.

https://www.kltv.com/2020/08/05/why-texas-coronavirus-data-comes-with-caveats/

33% of reported deaths in GA are from nursing homes over the last 2 weeks.

44% of reported deaths in GA are from nursing home over the course of the pandemic.

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Social distance

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GET TESTED

3% of new cases in GA have been reported as nursing home residents over the last 2 weeks

5% of cases in GA have been reported as nursing home residents during the pandemic

Over the last 2 weeks, for every 2 nursing home residents who test positive, 1 nursing home staff tests positive

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Interesting article on data problems in the US. There is no way the US can get through this with a state by state approach.

https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/news/lack-of-public-data-hampers-covid-19-fight/article_5488f802-ae46-52d7-9abc-a6742663a4ab.html

Precious Roy wrote:

Interesting article on data problems in the US. There is no way the US can get through this with a state by state approach.

https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/news/lack-of-public-data-hampers-covid-19-fight/article_5488f802-ae46-52d7-9abc-a6742663a4ab.html

Skyrocketing cases, clashes among federal leaders and a hodgepodge of state data have left many Americans asking how the United States will get back to anything resembling normal life.

The answer is straightforward, Mokdad and other epidemiologists say: wearing masks, social distancing, more testing — and better data.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Better data

Yesterday, Dr. Birx named Atlanta as one of the cities she is particularly concerned about.

Of course, Atlanta city schools announced online only quite some time ago. I've heard through the grapevine that applications to private schools went way up after that.

But what I am hearing now is that all the major private schools have gone to online only or hybrid learning where kids are on campus part time.

This school opening disaster is Kemp's fault. Georgia reopened too soon and too fast.

Our governor is a wicked Trumpy moron.

worth looking at the official NYC covid page.

It's good, intuitive, simple graphic design. Nothing fancy but easy to see what is going on even after looking at tons of different kinds of data representation.

It's also amazingly good what NYC has done since its apocalypse. Maybe 35 hospitalizations and 10 deaths per day. In a dense city of 8 million.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

agip wrote:

worth looking at the official NYC covid page.

It's good, intuitive, simple graphic design. Nothing fancy but easy to see what is going on even after looking at tons of different kinds of data representation.

It's also amazingly good what NYC has done since its apocalypse. Maybe 35 hospitalizations and 10 deaths per day. In a dense city of 8 million.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Indeed. Instead of learning from NYC, Georgia has decided to welcome the death and desolation. Our disaster is moving slower than NYC, but the result is the same.

pupil3142 wrote:

agree,

im not arguing wth agip, and im not replying to his response since its a bit silly. im just trying to put another side to the same statistics.

hope rather than doom. both are equally valid when using stats.

Hope? In this context? I'm not so sure.

The US has 4% of the world's cases, and 22% of the world's deaths. Let's be clear: this is going very, very wrong in the US and 'hope' seems to be our leadership's strategy - "it'll just disappear".

No, hope isn't the best interpretation of these stats.

priv wrote:

pupil3142 wrote:

agree,

im not arguing wth agip, and im not replying to his response since its a bit silly. im just trying to put another side to the same statistics.

hope rather than doom. both are equally valid when using stats.

Hope? In this context? I'm not so sure.

The US has 4% of the world's cases, and 22% of the world's deaths. Let's be clear: this is going very, very wrong in the US and 'hope' seems to be our leadership's strategy - "it'll just disappear".

No, hope isn't the best interpretation of these stats.

Apparently it is a human tendency to prefer the wishful ("hope" instead of analytics) approach; it is more comforting to think happy, dreamy thoughts, rather than looking at reality.

gligduff wrote:

Apparently it is a human tendency to prefer the wishful ("hope" instead of analytics) approach; it is more comforting to think happy, dreamy thoughts, rather than looking at reality.

Absolutely correct. And I would say that Americans are more prone to this than most.

That is why so many gleefully went along with reopening too early. As I have been saying since the beginning of this thread, there was no rational reason to believe that things would turn out well. All the science said we needed to stay in lockdown until the numbers got much lower.

Now we are faced with a situation where the only solution we have is an even longer, more difficult lockdown. But almost everyone on this thread is still in denial and still thinking happy, dreamy thoughts, rather than looking at reality.

Fauci's roadmap is the same one he's been preaching, including using masks in public, social distancing and washing hands.

Testing, contact tracing, masks and distancing have all been stressed by health experts as measures that could help reduce the spread of the virus and bring numbers down to the baseline necessary to reopen safely.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Fat hurts wrote:

gligduff wrote:

Apparently it is a human tendency to prefer the wishful ("hope" instead of analytics) approach; it is more comforting to think happy, dreamy thoughts, rather than looking at reality.

Absolutely correct. And I would say that Americans are more prone to this than most.

That is why so many gleefully went along with reopening too early. As I have been saying since the beginning of this thread, there was no rational reason to believe that things would turn out well. All the science said we needed to stay in lockdown until the numbers got much lower.

Now we are faced with a situation where the only solution we have is an even longer, more difficult lockdown. But almost everyone on this thread is still in denial and still thinking happy, dreamy thoughts, rather than looking at reality.

Fats don't you think what will happen is;

1) Schools try to open but shut down pretty quickly

2) We wait for a vaccine and try not to lose too many people. Masks and social distancing are pushed.

3) Vaccine arrives and the epidemic slowly recedes.

I would be very surprised if you are right and we have to do a long difficult lockdown. I don't think many want that. Certainly I don't think politicians want that, in the weeks before an election.