57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

What's the point you're trying to make? Are you a "Herd Immunity" person?

Florida has 491,733 confirmed positive tests. Let's say that's from 480,000 people. Divided by the State population that's 2.2% of it. There is a notion that earlier in the crisis we were missing maybe 90-95% of the people who had it (for places like NYC/NJ). That hasn't been the case for a couple months, though. Florida's death numbers indicate the spread has been much higher and it's not just testing that has gone up.

Testing however is capturing a lot more of the cases than in New York in March/April though. There's little reason to believe we're only getting 5-10% of the cases right now. Would love to see what the CDC estimates...

What I am getting at is that if we are having these kinds of positive rates and this thing has been going on for more than 4 months, maybe as many as 8. Either way , months past the peak, It is not that hard to draw the conclusion that a hell of a lot of people have been through this or something else is rotten in Denmark.

Do the survey , write the formula and the answers will come, baffle with bull shirts and excuses instead, for what?

I can't do this but I wouldn't be surprised if doing math with these current positive numbers wouldn't end up with more than 100% of the US. sick. Whats the window for these positves, how many days back would a positive not be positve , how many days after the positive do the pass?

I literally gave you the testing results. There is nothing really to do. States are keeping track of the data. Not really sure what is fishy. It takes a person more advanced to me or a large Antibody study to take a stab at how many undiagnosed people with COVID there are based on testing capacity and the positive rate. No doubt we haven't caught all the cases, of course.

What percentage of NY was likely positive at their peak? It didn't get to that percentage out of thin air , it was going on for months , it didn't get to where is now out of thin air , it declined for months. Average it , lots of people sick. Lather rinse repeat.

I don't think you understand how math works. If you test 1/400 of a state's population for COVID-19 every day and 10% test positive each day, it would still take 400 days (a year and a month) to test everyone in the state, and 4,000 days (11 years roughly) for everyone to have gotten COVID.

Obviously this is unrealistic as testing doesn't catch everyone who has COVID-19. It's fair to say there's nothing fishy about the %s that are going on in Florida. Testing isn't near widespread enough for people to think there's a conspiracy to double-count positives, or that the numbers are evidence that the entire state has gotten it.

How does 10% per day positive take 11 years? Please write the formula.

Texas coming in with 245 fatalities and 9,167 new cases. I thought we would be seeing some improvement on new cases with the imposition of the mask order and bar ban in the beginning of July along with all the news reports about stress on the hospitals. But the current trend on new cases is heading back up after coming down from a peak in mid July. FL, GA and AZ are looking like they are trending downward on new positives, consistent with a Farr's Law symmetrical model.

In Houston, the hospitalizations have come down significantly from a peak in mid July, but are still high. But the positive daily test results are also following the large trend in Texas and have started going up over the past week after declining from a mid July peak.

So, the next few weeks will be interesting. Will hotspots see declines continue as some immunity sets in among a larger and larger percent of the population? Will schools opening reignite large outbreaks? Will a lack of lockdowns or even strong social distancing mean a sustain plateau of high infection rates?

Surging, raging, soaring, upticks, super spreaders, hot spots, spiking, infectious....

I think I have it.

What am I missing?

Interesting what a quick look at when the peak in cases occurred in GA counties. Large metro and random (many small):

DeKalb - one peak on Jul01 and another on Jul11

Gwinnett - Jul11

Fulton - Jul11

Cobb - Jul11

Chatham - Jul11

Bibb - Jul10

Muscogee - Jul06

Lowndes - Jul05

Clarke - Jul11

Dougherty - (hit very hard in late March) - second smaller peak Jul12

Whitfield - Jul08

Floyd - Jul12

Richmond - July14

Rabun - Jul14

Heard - Jul11

Glynn - Jun26

Houston - Jul11

Toombs - Jul15

Pierce - Jul09

Charloton - Jul20

Elbert - Jul10

Gordon - Jul11

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

The Unkle wrote:

Surging, raging, soaring, upticks, super spreaders, hot spots, spiking, infectious....

I think I have it.

What am I missing?

Empathy for fellow more vulnerable Americans. Otherwise you’re doing great.

Y

Trumps feelings do not matter more.

Everydog wrote:

How does 10% per day positive take 11 years? Please write the formula.

I told you how. We’re only testing a small fraction of people each day (1/400th). Of that group a fraction are testing positive on average (1/10th). Think about it if Florida’s population was literally 400 people and we tested one a day. Day 10 we get a positive. We test 399 people , Day 16 we get a positive. We test 398 people, day 25 we get a person. 397 to go. And so on. It would take many years to get everyone, even if some people infected others. It’s a big population and it doesn’t spread equally everywhere. Florida tested less earlier on and had lower positivity rates too. If they’re trying achieve herd immunity it will take months and they’ll have to change their guidance. Even in New York, there’re probably only a few neighborhoods that have something approximating it. Sweden doesn’t have it. Florida isn’t as dense.

That's silly, at the current rate if the past and current percent positives are even remotely representative, everybody would have this thing in a very short time.

You are greatly overstating testing. I give up. Test results are not representative of the entire state - people who have symptoms or interacted with someone who did are over represented.

Back to where we started , get a good picture. Where is the will to get a good picture?

With all the asymptomatics, who don't happen to be NBA basketball players included.

A good study, or why demand what you have to say to be valued. It's not deserved.

8/4 Data

Very very bad day in viruslandia.

- 7 day rolling average of daily deaths -

World: new cyclical high

US: new cyclical high

BZ: Near all time highs, on a long high plateau

India: new all time high

FL: new all time high

CA: new all time high

TX: new all time high

AZ: falling down the backside of the curve.

Add those four states and you get an all time high, 32% (!) higher than a week ago.

Just awful stuff. But I hear cases are starting to fall in some places, so probably in a couple weeks the death numbers in the US will start to decline.

bad times starting to plateau, possibly at worst; tuedays always bad, finger crossed for next few days, could go either way. countries with worse and worsening results notorious for poor statistics, so new part of circle could be starting

my glass is half full, but i can see why yours may appear half empty.