Down goes the Dow

If anybody cares, here's the wiki entry for Triffin's Dilemma. Money supply, SDR's, reserve currency can and will be affected by Trump's economic policy, if and when, and to what degree, it is implemented.

Big changes potentially looming, very unstable situation. Everybody internationally has always known that in theory things could happen, but now it looks like some of those ideas might actually be tested.

Maserati wrote:

lol agip, remember when I suggested that your fitness and the markets are in synch, and that you should have done lots of racing during those peak weeks?

agip, the financial indicator species.

Maserati and agip,

My best years were 1973 and 1974, the S&P 500 was down -14.31% and -25.90% respectively. Bulls should pray I stay injured all year.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati wrote:

lol agip, remember when I suggested that your fitness and the markets are in synch, and that you should have done lots of racing during those peak weeks?

agip, the financial indicator species.

Maserati and agip,

My best years were 1973 and 1974, the S&P 500 was down -14.31% and -25.90% respectively. Bulls should pray I stay injured all year.

Igy

I'm laughing - that is perfection

I mean in a comic sense, not in a common humanity sense.

agip,

Yea, I had no idea what the stock market returns were in those years. Actually somewhat totally ambivalent to the many things other than running and my girl friend (now wife).

Ig

In my case, market downturns seem to have coincided with big changes in my life outlook: '87, transitioning from military to civilian; '00, international move; '08, Bolt jogging to 100m gold.

I am on the verge of another international move and re-alignment, so SOMETHING will happen. Honestly, I had just decided before the election, thereby setting the wheels in motion. Trump winning was the first sign.

BTW this move will be bigger than the others, so I expect the resulting market devastation to be greater, also.

Maserati,

Best wishes on the move, career and otherwise. I will croak where I am at unless I end up like my mother senile, and at the whims of her children. Our children are here, so unlikely things will change, but then again you never know. We moved my father-in-law here for his last years after keeping him going in Southern California for as long as possible.

Igy

Maserati wrote:

In my case, market downturns seem to have coincided with big changes in my life outlook: '87, transitioning from military to civilian; '00, international move; '08, Bolt jogging to 100m gold.

I am on the verge of another international move and re-alignment, so SOMETHING will happen. Honestly, I had just decided before the election, thereby setting the wheels in motion. Trump winning was the first sign.

BTW this move will be bigger than the others, so I expect the resulting market devastation to be greater, also.

agreed - best of luck on the move.

In the spirit of this convo, Here's my story of movement in the securities business.

2001: Finish MBA, start work as analyst at a short-only hedge fund. Proceed to stay there for 7 years, fighting a bull market every day, every month, every year. Not rewarding work. Incredibly frustrating.

2007: I've had enough! I quit the short only hedge fund and go off on my own as a trader. Of course within weeks the market collapses. I lose my job. if I had stayed at the short only hedge fund I could have done ah much better.

2008: I start by financial advisory biz at the bottom of the market. I was literally the last guy in the door before they started firing/letting go dead wood. This sounds rough but it was the the good move in the story. In 2008/9 many many people hated their advisors and were eager to move. The crisis made my first years easier. And of course every one of my clients has seen only gains with me - 8 or 9 straight years.

So I am kicking myself for bailing on the hedge fund a year yearly, but it all worked out.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bulls should pray I stay injured all year.

Igy

Your health has nothing to do with what the market is going to do.

Much like your predictions and analysis.

agip,

Interesting story.

In my coaching career, I left a junior college position for a NCAA Division II job. Before I left I called a friend of mine who was interested in college coaching. He became and is one of the greatest college track coaches ever.

In regards to this business, we moved here for the lifestyle (1996). More or less lucked into this job, if you want to call it that. Hardest thing I ever did, mentally. Long hours, lots of rejection, low pay.

Being conservative served me well in the period 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. One reason I continue to work is my belief that we will experience similar times. I do react well under stress.

I have been asked many times if I missed coaching, and the answer is no. I made my decisions that I am at peace with, some good and some poor.

Igy

mellon wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bulls should pray I stay injured all year.

Igy

Your health has nothing to do with what the market is going to do.

Much like your predictions and analysis.

Gosh, I thought there was a correlation there. Who would have known? Thanks for the enlightenment.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gosh, I thought there was a correlation there.

Based on your rhetoric on this thread, I'm sure you did.

OK, by the way my foot is already feeling better. Thanks.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, by the way my foot is already feeling better. Thanks.

Time to short the FTSE.

Big,

Good for you, but I would sell both stocks. Let's talk NFLX for the moment, since they just reported earnings. Total liabilities of the company have increased 37% over the past year or $3 Billion. From the company 8-K: "Free cash flow -$639 million vs. -$276 million last Q4 and -$506 million in Q3'16." Continuing, "We are funding our working capital through the debt market. In October, we raised $1 Billion of senior notes with a coupon of 4.375%." Senior note holders will sit above equity holders if the company gets over extended. Spending $Billions to get incremental increase in revenue is not a sustainable business model in any environment, let alone a rising interest rate environment. Just the facts, regardless of what the stock does over the short term. A more reasonable valuation on the stock is closer to $20. Pretty sure we will get there by the conclusion of this cycle.

Igy

la gente está muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, by the way my foot is already feeling better. Thanks.

Time to short the FTSE.

he teed that one up for you

muy loca,

Good one, or go long the Loony....

Igy

4/1/2017

Yes Jim Bull you can be the proud owner of a company hemoraging $Billions. Even better if you buy at the high.