dint,
Wrong, bought CAT, EDD, PNRCX, CVX, EWZ, CTL, WMT, AMLP, POT, AAPL, to name a few last weeks of 2015 early 2016.
Igy
dint,
Wrong, bought CAT, EDD, PNRCX, CVX, EWZ, CTL, WMT, AMLP, POT, AAPL, to name a few last weeks of 2015 early 2016.
Igy
You're certainly not alone in your view, but a few things...the "mean" in mean reversion depends on how you window the data. It is arguable that it is appropriate to consider only the "modern" (i.e. most current) time period, in which the "mean" has progressively risen.
It's both funny and disturbing that people seem to consider the US equity markets in isolation. Look at what has happened around the world, and look at the bond bloodbath. If you are "properly diversified", then you might just see a net loss this year on whatever you liquidate/close out, notwithstanding DJIA 20k.
So the euphoria seemingly hasn't spread beyond the US equity markets. Why not? After all, Gallup just reported that US economic confidence is at an all-time high.
So maybe the "overall system" is not actually "frail and fundamentally flawed", as you suggest. Maybe a truly diversified portfolio will in 2016 reflect actual economic activity.
Maserati,
I think it is pretty easy to point to an internationally flawed market where 10 year sovereign bonds trade at a negative yield. In the four thousand year history of the financial markets you have never seen such a thing. That alone infects the entire financial system destroys any semblance of real price discovery.
Igy
VIX is hitting new lows. circa five year lows
this is crazy. the world is not stable - why is there no risk priced in the market.
I'm seriously considering taking a flier in my fun account and shorting something. Or just going to cash.
(note that my fun account is 1% of my net worth)
agip,
Lever it up and go TVIX, down -94% on the year.
I had a good treadmill workout this am: 2 x ( 1/2 mile @ tempo / rest 2:00; mile @ tempo / 2:00). Pace was 7:30, except on the last mile crank it down to 6:40 at the end.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Lever it up and go TVIX, down -94% on the year.
I had a good treadmill workout this am: 2 x ( 1/2 mile @ tempo / rest 2:00; mile @ tempo / 2:00). Pace was 7:30, except on the last mile crank it down to 6:40 at the end.
Igy
well that's much faster pace than the race - nice
I had a very nice indoor track workout last night - I'm basically at season end goal fitness already... so I need to figure out how to maintain this level of fitness. I suspect it will involve much mileage.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
dint,
Wrong, bought CAT, EDD, PNRCX, CVX, EWZ, CTL, WMT, AMLP, POT, AAPL, to name a few last weeks of 2015 early 2016.
Igy
If you don't have the balls to post your transactions when they occur (like other posters here), then you can't expect anyone to believe you.
agip,
Boise State has an indoor track we can use Tuesdays and Thursdays. It is about a 30 minute drive from where I work and only available in the evenings. They are also sponsoring four masters race in January/February 2 x 800 and 2 x mile races. I am pointing toward just getting back to the basics of running more, so I will probably skip the indoor workouts. However, I think I will challenge myself by still running the races. Forces me to be accountable.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Boise State has an indoor track we can use Tuesdays and Thursdays. It is about a 30 minute drive from where I work and only available in the evenings. They are also sponsoring four masters race in January/February 2 x 800 and 2 x mile races. I am pointing toward just getting back to the basics of running more, so I will probably skip the indoor workouts. However, I think I will challenge myself by still running the races. Forces me to be accountable.
Igy
agreed on the accountability - knowing I have a track race coming up gets me out the door.
track races are such accurate measuring devices...
agip,
For my age I still have decent speed, however I am still a distance runner. And 800s and mile races hurt anyway, unprepared, well not fun.
Igy
Oh no you dint wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:dint,
Wrong, bought CAT, EDD, PNRCX, CVX, EWZ, CTL, WMT, AMLP, POT, AAPL, to name a few last weeks of 2015 early 2016.
Igy
If you don't have the balls to post your transactions when they occur (like other posters here), then you can't expect anyone to believe you.
He didn't post it because like you said, it didn't happen.
This is why he's such a gluten for punishment. He pretends to be this "Market Guru". He hasn't a clue, but just won't admit it.
Oh no you dint wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:dint,
Wrong, bought CAT, EDD, PNRCX, CVX, EWZ, CTL, WMT, AMLP, POT, AAPL, to name a few last weeks of 2015 early 2016.
Igy
If you don't have the balls to post your transactions when they occur (like other posters here), then you can't expect anyone to believe you.
He's yanking your chain. He didn't buy any of those, at least not for himself. Most of those go against the very fundamentals that he espouses.
existing home sales at new cycle highs
there is hardly a negative econ number these days.
things are gathering momentum
I'll start posting some predictions I saved over the years to review on 12/31/16
The first is a correct prediction, from generic wall street. Bob doll of nuveen. Said we'd be ok in 2016 and he was right. Right is right, although I suspect he says the same thing every year.
US stocks up 14% as of last night year to date.
and also note how wrong the january effect was - market plunged january 2016 but we wound up with a very strong year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-going-ok-next-heres-141802386.html
agip,
Here are S&P 2017 price targets for main Wall Street Strategist:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/christmas-cheer-or-excessive-exuberance
Igy
Maybe I'll repost 2 each day. Here's our man Maserati on January 4, 2016 with the dow at 17,100, about to rise 17%
Maserati wrote:
IMO in investing, there is significant merit to KISS.
I don't claim any genius or inside information in investing, but I have been able to avoid both the .com crash and the subprime crash. The .com was the same as when I got out this time, years with insane gains and some stocks that were skyrocketing. Too good to be true IMO, and I got out. Back then, like now, I got out maybe a bit "early", but in hindsight it looks brilliant.
The subprime, I got out "very early". Again, I missed out on some potential gains, but again I looked brilliant. I first got out of bonds when I got jittery talking to a banker, after having talked to a mortgage originator and a realtor/broker who were total morons and who knew absolutely nothing...that, and constantly receiving unsolicited mortgage offers for, no kidding, 8-10x as much as I had taken as a mortgage in 2000, along with all sorts of other credit solicitations. That's when I first talked to a local bigwig banker about the mortgage industry, and the credit industry more specifically, and really learned about margin. Honestly, that freaked my wife out, and we got out of US equities, too.
Nothing genius, just KISS. If it sounds too good to be true, it is.
The only question is how the markets will adjust, on what time-frame. Will they idle along for long enough that fundamentals and the economy catch up to the valuations, or will they crash and reset? I'm hoping for yet another crash and reset, then I can get back in...and then back out when the BS meter registers again.
Mark my words today: currencies will be the next horizon of insanity. I have already said that I don't trade FX, but I do hold cash in several currencies. Those who know what they are doing and are lucky will get rich on currencies in the next 5 years. As I said before, I look for control, and stability, because the 2 together give predictability, IMO a necessary precondition for business investment. Places like Switzerland are interesting in this respect. Also, the alternative of just completely packing it in and doing nothing/travelling becomes a viable option in a time of great turmoil and unpredictability, IMO.
Things have gone to hell in a handbasket in the USA, IMO. What needs to happen to right the ship, will not happen IMO. The USA might be an OK place to live, but it will not be the best place to make money, or to keep money.
No way would I touch the markets at these index levels.
Dow 20,000:
agip wrote:
VIX is hitting new lows. circa five year lows
this is crazy. the world is not stable - why is there no risk priced in the market.
I'm seriously considering taking a flier in my fun account and shorting something. Or just going to cash.
(note that my fun account is 1% of my net worth)
Gee. You wouldn't be trying to time the market?
Reel,
How do you like my aftermath video of Dow 20,000?
Igy
Three K5/Igy posts in 11 minutes! There can be no doubt!