ROTH IRA Question-Calling LetsRun Investing Gurus

valuation fundamentals wrote:

Unless the company reinvests its capital, its a ponzi scheme ....

Naaaah!! There are many different not-illegal ways to flush the money out of a company and destroying it along the way.

agip wrote:

John Aich wrote:

Then we do agree. Valuations have been high for several years while prices have increased. The logical conclusion is that high valuations do not negatively affect prices in the long term (years).

this

if we stayed out of the stock market because of a high 10 year CAPE, we would have been out since oh 1990.

clearly the CAPE is not very predictive.

+1

Ms. CFA wrote:

agip wrote:

this

if we stayed out of the stock market because of a high 10 year CAPE, we would have been out since oh 1990.

clearly the CAPE is not very predictive.

+1

-2

It is factually incorrect that CAPE 10 is not predictive. For example the highest year end CAPE 10 was 43.77 on 1-1-2000 when the S&P 500 opened at 1,469. Ten years later on 1-1-2010 the CAPE 10 was less than half at 20.53 and the index was at 1,116. Furthermore, you are neglecting the two 50% drops in the S&P 500 (2000-2002 and 2007-2009) that followed the high CAPE valuations of the late 1990.

I will agree that CAPE 10 is not a timing mechanism. Robert Shiller, the author, has noted that fact numerous times.

Igy

+44%

"The latest monthly Fund Managers (FMS) survey from Bank of America is out, and continuing the trend noted in previous months when the number of active managers who said that stocks are overvalued hit the highest in nearly two decades, the latest version reveals that the number of respondents saying that equities are overvalued has just hit a record high, surpassing the all time high set during the 1999 bubble. As shown in the chart below, 44% of fund managers now say equities are overvalued, the highest response on record, and up from 37% in May."

So what you're saying is that a majority of fund managers do not think equities are overvalued. Interesting.

Their bonuses depend on it.

Tween line reader wrote:

So what you're saying is that a majority of fund managers do not think equities are overvalued. Interesting.

Of course, the same is true of the 44% who are trying to generate sales to pad their own bonuses.

You need to do more than read between the lines.

Bonuses encourage risk taking, not the other way around.

You don't think selling in the midst of a bull market is taking a risk?

I edited your question:

Tween line reader wrote:

You don't think selling in the END of a bull market is taking a risk?

Career risk possibly. Investment risk, NO.

I think I know why you were afraid to answer my original question. You're in the business, right?

I know why I had to re-phrase the question.

You don't have a job, and you are in the troll business, right?

Yes. No.

Polish your skills before trolling someone that actually knows something about the subject.

Try reading my reply again.

You are obviously trolling, so read my reply again.

Another piece of advice, go get a job.

An example of trolling would be taking someone else's question and rewording it. You did that, not me.

With regards to my employment status, I respectfully ask that you mind your own business.

Good day to you.

"With regards to my employment status, I respectfully ask that you mind your own business."

And of course please recall you didn't mind getting into my business.

In regards to trolling, you did do a good job twisting my points.

And good day to you.

As often as Reid, er, Ghost posts on here, you'd wonder how he manages to stay in business selling CDs to little out ladies and managing $120 million.

I guess investment advisors don't do nearly as much for your money as you might think.