http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ekyKLGTD_uE
Akiyuki Hashimoto's (18 years old) 20.35 into a headwind
Akiyuki Hashimoto's (18 years old) 20.35 into a headwind
Kiryu gets third in 10.40, losing to Atkins in 10.24 and Rodgers in 10.19, all into a (-1.2) wind.
Kiryu's time adjusts to 10.32, well off his recent reported clocking of an adjusted 10.05
Off by more than a quarter of a second.
Which brings up 2 possibilities: either the timing in last week's race was wrong, or he just had a worse race today.
FWIW, his earlier race looked really fast, but it is difficult to tell when a guy is out in front of inferior sprinters, and when he is so short that his limbs are moving so fast the impression of great speed is created.
He's young, so he's likely to be inconsistent. This actually looked like a 10.32 basic, which is a believable time. Rodgers was off his top this season, but like he said, he just got off a 13-hour plane ride. Good showing by him, he easily beat the field, and IMO could well have gone faster, but I think that he was going for the win in a fashion that would not risk injury.
That's why Atkins was so close to him. I think that Rodgers is probably a fair bit faster than Atkins this year, but who knows--Atkins also had a long flight, after all. Great to see Atkins back around, he had disappeared there for a while a few years ago.
Getting back to Kiryu, because even if his 10.01 was timed correctly it is insufficient to conclude that he is legitimately a 10.01 sprinter, so this race is insufficient to conclude that he is a 10.40 sprinter, especially given other times he has put up in the past.
I chalk it up to a not-great showing by him, which he has PLENTY of time to erase in a career that is only just beginning.
So for now, the hype will probably die down, as it should. We need to see more from this guy than some bizarrely spectacular world junior record at age 17.
I hope everything's legit, and that he eventually proves himself worthy...but for now, we wait.
He is also the same height as Rodgers who is listed at 5'9". I tend to think both are more likely a fraction of an inch shorter as in height listing in other sports people tend to round up not down.
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Update on Kiryu's 10.01, it is possible that the wind gauge gave an improper reading. The type of wind gauge used was not the ultrasonic type required by the IAAF for ratification of records.
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000229446
This is not by itself evidence of an incorrect wind reading, but the IAAF requires ultrasonic gauges presumably because of their superior accuracy, precision, and/or reliability.
"22. For World Records in Running and Race Walking Events:
The following conditions must be respected:
(d) For all Records made outdoors up to and including 200m,
information concerning wind velocity, measured as indicated in Rules 163.8 to 163.13 inclusive, shall be submitted. If the wind velocity, measured in the direction of running, behind the athlete averages more than 2 metres per second, the Record will not be accepted."
"Wind Measurement
9. Non-mechanical wind gauges shall be used at all International Competitions under Rules 1.1(a) to (h) and for any performance submitted for ratification as a World Record."
It looks like Japan might appeal.
Like I said, I remain skeptical.
Round 1: me. He hasn't come anywhere near 10.01 in subsequent races.
Round 2: me. Measuring equipment didn't conform to record ratification requirements.
I still hope he's for real, and that he can put this behind him. Since he's still so incredibly young at around 17-1/2 years old, he's got plenty of time to get that WJR.
Ryota Yamagata just ran a PR 20.41 200m into a .5 headwind
How's the Kiryu situation? Did the Japanese appeal/win the appeal?
And has he even run more than one race since the 10.01? (Actually he did run 10.03 later that day with a big tailwind which id say is kinda close though it was the same wind reader)
Bob Dobbs: "Anyway, given Japan's spotless record, you'd have to be stark raving looney to bet that Kiryu is doping."
No doubt you're going to move the goalposts now that your basic premise has been disproved.
So now we have not one, but two anomalous factors relating to Kiryu: 1) wind gauge, 2) compatriot testing positive.
The waiting has proved fruitful.
We continue to wait for more.
bump.
Dobbs, where are you?
Sprintgeezer wrote:
Round 1: me. He hasn't come anywhere near 10.01 in subsequent races.
Can you list his subsequent races? Have there been lots of them? Just one? On a windy day? Do tell.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
No doubt you're going to move the goalposts now that your basic premise has been disproved.
So now we have not one, but two anomalous factors relating to Kiryu: 1) wind gauge, 2) compatriot testing positive.
The waiting has proved fruitful.
We continue to wait for more.
Point 1 is valid. You're running into some sample size and false correlation issues on point 2, though, although I don't expect you will own up to it.
The "compatriot" was a female marathoner. Now saying an entire culture is clean is a bit foolhardy but claiming a teenage sprinter is doped because a 32 year old distance runner tested positive (for a drug useless to 100m sprinters) is weak as well.
And, to reiterate, as far as I can tell Kiryu has done only two races since the 10.01 and one of those was the same day (correct me if you know of any others)
That is correct, there have been 2 other races, one the same day, as has already been discussed. He has come nowhere near 10.01 in either.
The example of the female marathoner is instructive. It is not by MY logic that I consider him to be affected by her doping, it is by the logic of such posters as Bob Dobbs and others, which logic holds that Japanese culture is monolithic, and that if they have returned no positive tests, then they all must be clean. The clearly absurd corollary is that if one tests positive then they must all be dirty--but that is not, I repeat NOT, what I am claiming--but no doubt some will jump to the incorrect conclusion that that is the basis for my association of Kiryu with this marathoner.
To contend, as some have done, that it is impossible for a Japanese athlete to be on PED's is totally absurd and ignorant. Here we have an example of a situation where if the athlete was on EPO, for one reason or another, knowingly or unknowingly--but doped, to be sure.
The Japanese are neither individually identical nor infallible, and THAT is the basic fact illustrated by this positive test--and that fact applies PRECISELY to Kiryu.
There are no "correlation" or "sample size" issues whatsoever, because my earlier contention was in my opinion beyond any doubt, reasonable--that "the possibility of Kiryu being on PED's is non-zero". It was others who used arguments of infallibility and identicality as rebuttal--which were weak and unsupportable before this positive test, for obvious reasons.
All this test does is provide further, direct evidence that their rebuttal argument is laughable--and it doesn't matter at all that this might (MIGHT) have been a situation of mistake. Kiryu's situation could just as easily be a mistake, and it could very well be the situation where he has no idea that he is on, or has taken, PED's. Or it could just as easily be the situation that he is knowingly and intentionally taking something, or that somebody is knowingly supplying him with something.
The point is that we don't know, and that the possibility is, like I said, non-zero. If people like Dobbs cannot admit that now, they have an even bigger crisis of intelligence than they had prior to this positive test.
****************
And speaking of miracle Japanese, has nobody considered to question that other miracle, Kawauchi? When/how much/where has he been tested? Isn't it true that he was not named to the team that would compete in a situation in which there would absolutely be testing?
I'm not saying he's using, only that his seemingly amazing exploits should be questioned. Unlike sprinting, I don't know how his marathon achievements rank on the spectrum of believability--but reading this board, it appears exceedingly out of the ordinary.
I hope both are frequently and intensely tested but as of yet I have seen nothing that screams doping to me from Kiryu or Kawauchi. Kiryu I know less about so it is more of a gut feeling and/or sincere hope he is clean. I would rather suspect the wound gauge but everything remains hazy at this point. You are right that we need to see more races.
Kawauchi strikes me as having great durability but none of hos times are terribly suspicious. It is possible but it seems racing so frequently would just expose him to even more frequent testing (also given he has probably not been on universally good terms with the corporate system, ie finding a way to out him would not hurt them financially). He is certainly never off the map. Kawauchi is a hero of mine though so mayhaps I'm too biased
Where is "Bob Dobbs"? As usual in these cases, he has disappeared, not man enough to accept publicly that he was wrong.
His silence is deafening.
Expecting "Bob Dobbs" sometime, not because he was sufficiently responsible to answer this thread of his own volition, but because he is subject to pressure I applied on him in another thread:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5229256&page=3
Or not, because he hasn't shown us much so far, and there isn't any really good reason to suspect that that will change anytime soon.
I don't think Kiryu doped, but he's obviously being trained very technically well.
The wind reading may have been off 1.0-2.0 mps, which could have turned a 10.12 into a 10.01.
Still Kiryu is an amazing talent that is likely in the 10.1-10.2 range as a 17 year old which is phenomenal.
So sick of this wrote:
I don't think Kiryu doped, but he's obviously being trained very technically well.
The wind reading may have been off 1.0-2.0 mps, which could have turned a 10.12 into a 10.01.
Still Kiryu is an amazing talent that is likely in the 10.1-10.2 range as a 17 year old which is phenomenal.
Based on what? Wind readers aren't THAT inaccurate. He isn't likely a 10.1-2 sprinter, he IS a 10.x sprinter.
How do you know wind readers aren't that inaccurate?
http://www.inspeed.com/Inspeed_Wind_Speed_Accuracy.asp
Here is an example of a wind speed reader that is mechanical.
The manufacturer states that it is inaccurate below speeds of 5 miles per hour. 2 meters per second is 4.47 miles per hour.
Basically the wind reading could be off significantly in low speed conditions, like track meets, and yes 2-3 mps is low speed for most wind readings.
It makes more sense to me that the wind reading may have been 2.0 or slightly over and Kiryu had a 10.10 or thereabouts performance with nil wind.
Oh, I forgot that this was a different type of wind reader, assuming the link you posted was info for the one used at that meet, other wise the estimated error for most wind readers is ± .5