5000m World Record Splits: A Progression

calculo wrote:

blah blah blah

Nice.

i have to disagree

i believe that is negligible at 7+m/s speed

those speeds on the flat coud be 30mph or 13.4m/s or ~ double the speed

serious drag & power considerations come into it with those differences when you consider any increase in speed requires cubic increase in power !!!

that means huge more turbulence !!!

doubling speed from a 3'30 to 30mph will require a

double^3

= 8 !!!

times more air disturbance !!!

that is why cycling offers much longer drafting "window"

cycling offers drafting of consequence for much further distance than track run

again i have to disagree

for low 7 or even 8m/s speed, if gap is beyond a stride, say 2m, drafting is 0

the drop off from your suggested "teardrop" is catastrophic

i give mo full value for 3'27-flat with limpet-drafting to bell

knock off some tenths for the uneven pace...

there is very little difference between gebremeskel & mo's 400 IMO

i really hate scrabbling around for really precise estimates as you can obviously try infinite combos & i usually only go to nearest 0.25s for 400 & 800 but this requires precision as 0.25s moves in 400 or 800 won't do it

mo, at his peak, which he claims he thinks was '13 but it definitely was '15 on intrinsic performance analysis, i reckon was

~ 49.25 / 1'44.60

->

3'26.50 !!

7'15.87 !!!

12'34.55 !!!

26'25.34 !

1st time i tried his estimate with 0.1s precision, but i can't ignore it

mo did have ability to utterly annihilate 3k, break 5k WRs & shock the milers with 3'26+, but only a semi-decent 10k considering that is perfect run with even pace & no wide running lapping hobbyists...

Anyone suggesting 26:25 is "only a semi-decent 10k" can (should) reasonably be ignored. If not banned.

i'll offer kennster's line of fit to 0.1s which i never looked at before as stated above that leaves open to infinite estimates, but surprisingly best fit is with 0.25s variations

51.25 / 1'47.50

->

3'30.06

7'18.88

12'34.50

26'11.49

he had crap open 400 speed, woud never have have cracked 51 outta blocks

he even says his best 800 in obviously a TT was "1'48"

thankfully he was honest enough about the 800, but talked absolute drivel about 49 speed

how the fuuck can you only run 1'48 if you claim to have 49 speed & can 26-low ???

either 49 or 1'48 is nonsense, but seeing as 1'48 fits perfectly assuming unrested unpaced TT, then that 49+ claim is total horsesh!t

not surprising for runt ~ 5'4

no matter how much you whip over those runt legs, you are not going to run an impressive 1 lap

however his incredible endurance wouda got him into 3'30s, 7'18s, sub-12'35 & little bit off 26'10 & off course allowed him to bring near enough 51-low speed to last lap of even fastish 5 or 10ks

take home message

KENNSTER HAD CRAP OPEN 400 SPEED

"ebony fetishists"??

You really have an issue with the now waned glory days of British athletics, don't you?

"their countries being far more corrupt"?

Who was VP of IAAF during all the corruption there again?

I'm sure this stuff just reinforces for you that black people are cheating doping corruption hordes and Seb Coe is the greatest man who ever lived.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/36541301

Of course, to some of us, it suggests that maybe Coe was just as likely to dope and cheat as anyone else.

Why does anyone suppose East Africans might NOT have any kind of natural advantage in distance athletics? IMO, the greatest illustration of some natural superiority is not in the outliers, like Bekele and Komen, etc .. it's in the sheer numbers of elite track, XC and road runners who seem to dominate the sport. Or look at guys like Mo .. what are the odds that some Somalian refugee who moved to the UK when he was 8 years old becoming the single most dominant track athlete in the UK in history? Unless, of course, there is some kind of genetic advantage that many from E. Africa seem to have.

You folks seem to think Lagat's 3:26 is explained by the lack of testing in Africa and rampant doping, and does not illustrate any kind of talent level that may exist .... yet he ran12:53 as a 37 year old living and being tested regularly in the US .. as a nearly 40 year old man who ran nearly 3 seconds faster than any other American has ever run. This is because he loaded up on EPO in Kenya, and that benefit stayed with him for the rest of his life, right? It's not just that he might be a badass?

C'mon rek you always cherry pick and shift the goalposts, and make Straw Man arguments, etc., etc. "Casual observer" provides solid information always backed up with evidence and your rebuttal is to move the goalposts & cherry pick some data that you think refutes his information. And all naratives about cycling don't involve just GTs. Go research the spring classics; one day events that dominate France & Belgium in March thru late April. So many dominate riders under suspicion over the years including those conformed with doping (e.g., Valverde/Operation Puerto).

That's because world pro tour cycling teams have 25+ riders on their roster (e.g., a TdF level "A" team and lower tier "B" riders), a large staff of coaches and sometimes 2 -3 team doctors. When one rider gets popped for dope the whole team gets thrown under the bus. Same if the team hires a doctor with previous doping ties or a DS (mgmr) with doping ties (e.g., Riis, Vino). Remember 5-time TdF winner Miguel "Big Mig" Indurain? Never tested positive for any PEDs & adamantly denies any doping during his star-studded career, though he dominated the TdF in the mid-90s. But wait...Conconi was Banesto's team doctor & a former teammate of Big Mig's later said (for a book he was writing) there was systematic doping going at Banesto when he was there (just imagine that). And never forget Lance: Passes hundreds of doping controls, claims he was seeing Ferrari for training & nutritional advice, spoke out against doping - saying it would be insane for a stage-4 cancer victim to use PEDs & even went on the Larry King show in 06 to defend Landis against doping allegations. The dagger in Lance's back? When he & new team Radio Shack refused to hire Landis after his ban prompting Landis to drop a dime to USADA in retaliation! ???

Runners can go more underground with their doping and not have to get too many people involved (though Operation Galco involved several top Spanish runners and quite a few doping doctors). Runners can be discrete about their doping and maybe get advice here & there from a coach or a doping doctor on what type of programs to use, substances, glow times, etc. And some seem to be well versed in what they're doing. Remember Hesch? He bought his EPO for pennies across the border (who would have thought. Lol) and worked out his own cycles which included monitoring his Hct levels. Though he was never once drug tested, his undoing is when an empty vial was discovered in his personal effects by another runner at a race. ?

calculo wrote:

mo that day was in 3'26.5 / 3'26.75 shape

Asbel was however still worth somewhat lot quicker

Do tell us what shape Kiprop was in that day?

wtfunny wrote:

Why does anyone suppose East Africans might NOT have any kind of natural advantage in distance athletics? IMO, the greatest illustration of some natural superiority is not in the outliers, like Bekele and Komen, etc .. it's in the sheer numbers of elite track, XC and road runners who seem to dominate the sport. Or look at guys like Mo .. what are the odds that some Somalian refugee who moved to the UK when he was 8 years old becoming the single most dominant track athlete in the UK in history? Unless, of course, there is some kind of genetic advantage that many from E. Africa seem to have.

The rest of your post is complete garbage but I'll address the Mo Farah point briefly.

You don't have a clue about demographics or statistics.

So how many millions of African refugees has Europe let in over the last couple of decades? Probably 10 - 20 million, mostly young males. If Mo Farah 's family had gone to Italy or Germany and achieved the same you would say 'what are the odds of Mo Farah moving to Germany as a child refugee....etc'.

Somalians are ridiculously over represented in violent crime and rape statistics in Europe. I read some time back that Somalis in Norway make up something like 90% of convicted rapists. Does this mean we have to draw the conclusion that Somalis are genetically advantaged in the rape department? Or is racism only valid when it's lefties making the claim that Africans are physically superior?

Mo Farah is the most dominant runner in UK track history at a time when we no longer produce many elite runners ourselves. He trains in Kenya and the USA and has huge doping suspicions surrounding him as well as his American team. Being the first successful 'UK' distance star for decades has benefited him tremendously in terms of lottery funding and financial incentives from being a huge in a First World country.

What are the odds of Kenyans being the endurance master race and yet a pasty faced Scottish kid moving to Kenya- one of 0.01% whites of the population - becoming far and away the richest and most famous sportsman in Kenyan history (and in an endurance sport)?

There's another way of looking at Kenyan so called 'domination' and genetic superiority. Kenyan success at distance running is not due to genetic superiority but due to genetic inferiority. White Europeans can compete at hundreds of different sports, but Kenyans appear only to be dominant in one. Kenyans can't even compete in sprints or field events apart from the occasional 400m runner.

The white under 30 population of the UK is now less than half that of Kenya's, yet if EVERY talented sporting white kid in Britain was pushed into distance running, I'm pretty sure we would dominate just as surely as Kenyans do. In fact, we did dominate in the 70's and 80's running similar times to Kenyans are running 40 years later, when the UK had a smaller youth population even back then and dozens of other sports talented young athletes would choose over running.

And btw, what on Earth is wrong in being proud of your own nation's sporting history you weasel?

Coevett wrote:

red flag - why were so many great 1500/5000m runners around the EPO era if it had nothing to do with EPO??)

EPO doesn't work, it is just lolly water. Running effortlessly for 60 minutes at 3:00 kmph pace is just an illusion of the mind, a placebo effect.

calculo wrote:

however, if he'd dared to get behind Asbel by 400, the drafting offered to bell wouda definitely got him into 3'27s, albeit he wouda crumbled slowly on last lap

He clearly couldn't keep up with 3:26-27 pace, how hard is it for you to grasp this obvious fact. He ran 3:28-high twice via two different strategies, it is called consilience, the same outcome.

High-Octane Dopers wrote:

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/d1/87/b4/d187b4765c3611aee29f6fb761a23167--sebastian-coe-running-man.jpghttp://c8.alamy.com/comp/DGN1DD/jarmila-kratochvilova-cze-competing-in-the-1983-world-athletics-championships-DGN1DD.jpg

C'mon man!...are you serious? Coe's "ridiculous muscularity even makes Kratochvílová look like a female waif." Say what? ? In that photo you posted of Coe he's got skinny biceps, rounded shoulders with no deltoid development, no trap muscles, etc....a typical slender built elite mid-d runner. OTOH, that beast mode Kratochvilova (any relation to Roger Daltry?) is more muscular than half the guys at the gym I lift at! Seriously...get your eyes checked. ?[/quote]

The Roger Daltrey gag never gets old.

calculo wrote:

Caleb was good for 3'27+

.

How many times did he run sub 3:30?

Coevett wrote:

And btw, what on Earth is wrong in being proud of your own nation's sporting history you weasel?

Coevett person, you are an embarrassment to the sport.

Please fvck off.

Thank you.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

calculo wrote:

Caleb was good for 3'27+

.

How many times did he run sub 3:30?

There are plenty of ways to argue against 3:27 for any other time for Ndiku or another runner, this is not one of them.

If a race goes slow, it's worthless is terms of measuring an athletes ability. Now, if there are some fast races with pacing to 1100 at like 2:30-2:35 to the bell where Ndiku was dropped or faded hard at the bell, then those would be good indications Ndiku can't run 3:27.

A bunch of jogfests in 3:3x don't tell you much of anything about a runners ability, just as a bunch of 13:xx 5k's don't give us any indication of whether guys can run in the low 12:50s or 12:40s. You need to look at good efforts that weren't really slow in the first part of the race.

this is all very good & from your personal acquaintances it does sound reasonable

confirmed if anyone requires by recent 1/2M in dehli offering truckload of $$$ compared to diamond league centisimos !!!

this needs huge highlighting

this is good ole days when no worry chasing centimos on track in golden-4/golden-league...

this was chasing clock as in cologne

( my favorite ever meet to watch - often spectacular even in poor/terrible conditions !!!

& all it was was "proper" 8-lane track with guaranteed auto-timing going back to at least late-'60s when either one of german 2-pronged panzers of bodo or norpoth nearly broke 1500 euro record there, no mickey-mouse whatsoever

greatest meet of all time !!! )

no !!!

that is very, very wrong

huge numbers of guys in past decade+ couda beaten 800 - 10k WRs

you really do have no idea of ability, even with guy you coached as in Silas ?!

if you come on here, you will get critique

you are an elite coach, but not to say with the Kenyan substrate such as Komen who coud run on whacked-legs off stoopid opener of 57+ at just 20y :

7'20

then we have Korir, who was a nobody until last year then exported by Ereng, got some serious weight-training in just barely 1-off season & ran

43.34R

one of the top-few anchors in history !!!

& he did this off just barely 1 winter of weight-training, ever !!!

here is Iphone clip of how a 1-year weight-trained Kenyan can run 43.34 !!!

tell us how you can develop 44-flat speed in Kenyans off

"no weights" ???

it is impossible to fail with talent turning up

7'20 was just another buffalo-herder turning up

yes

$ is most important consideration in track today & win is all that counts apart from that occasional stockholm diamond

that is nonsense

you don't even know how quick Silas was when he ran 3'27.64 !!!

- Silas

he got tripped by soulemain on 1st lap, stumbled & lost some speed

he had some wide bend running included

he was absolute crap to 800, somewhere 1'53+, finishing last 700 at 3'22+ !!!

you coached him :

did you realise that the day Silas ran 3'27.64, if he'd got his perfect run, drafted to bell at even-pace, he shouda run

~ 3'25-high !!!

then we have numerous others

- Sammy

who in '05, at 18y !!!, ran 26'41 running 26'16 !!! pace at 6k

his coach who is japanese & perhaps used weight-training, said

- Komon 26'44

this was Komen-esque

26'44 on loop course when no one else has yet broken 27 shows how incredible his shape was that day !!!

that is 26-low track run -> WR

& that -> definite sub-12'40

Kamwo !!!

his cardiff shape was off the scale !!!

even adola who debuted with 2"03+ & looked for long time to beat Eliud, was running cardiff & he said

"~ Kamwo fell over not 1 time but 2nd time & then 3rd time !!!

so many runners charging

Kamwo got up finally & charged off !!!

he has power

he has lot of power !!!"

no ethiopian ever gave any Kenyan an atom of praise

adola was awed by the power of Kamwo in cardiff

i assure you those indicated track shape that day of, now please sit down & take stiff lambrusco

52.00 / 1'48.50

->

3'31.09

7'19.05 !

12'32.48 !!

26'01.22 !!!

i don't think there has lived a talent at Ryun level over 400, & even wade's intrinsic 42-mid-zurich doesn't match Ryun's '67 shape

i'd easily offer Kamwo in cardiff as 2nd best middle/distance runner in history

Kamwo in cardiff was in certainly greatest 10k shape ever seen, but he was running it off half-M training !!!

yes & no

circuit is only about wins, so times are irrelevant

a clock chase risks losing & big loss $

it is nearly impossible to chase clock from 800 up unless $ means nothing to guy

that is poor argument

kennster was forced into hard sprint by some 3rd rate unknown Kenyan who charged last 2 laps !!

that chump also ran 26'43 !!

that chump if flat out, accounting for nonsense 13'25 opening split was in

~ 26'30 / 26'35

that guy was nobody that next year in Kenyan trials in eugene in expexcted career best shape, he was not even in top-5 !!!

he shouda been in 26'20 - 26'25 shape in eugene & where did he finish ?

what does that say abot potential flat-out shape of guys ahead ?

that is a tough question...

gold standard is paced to 1/2-way & solo last 1/2

if drafted to 1/2way, he wouda been looking at 61-flat

so it woud be 61-flat/66-low splits

those are "expected" splits for a 2"06-flat run

physics offers little generosity...

the underlying rescues you

even if you have no clue like Ereng to shape a 45+/46 guy to 44-flat intrinsic like Korir, you have grace to offer guys are ruined by win-only targets

Every diamond league race is paced. How is someone capable of running 3:27 if he has never shown a capability of actually doing it? It is nonsensical to argue otherwise.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Every diamond league race is paced. How is someone capable of running 3:27 if he has never shown a capability of actually doing it? It is nonsensical to argue otherwise.

Every diamond league is paced, but sometimes slowly, and sometimes they don't even go with the pacers. How many 5ks are hitting 4k at 10:20 or how many 1500s hitting bell at 2:30-2:35? Very, very few. Almost every time a race does fulfill this criteria we have seen sub 12:50 and sub 3:30 respectively.

Slower than that, and you can't run fast. If you're at the bell of 5k in 12:10, you aren't going to run sub 13. If you're at the bell in a 1500 in 2:40, you aren't going to run sub 3:30 even if you have the physical ability to do. This is easy to picture, if you're in 17:00 5k shape and you go out and the first 11.5 laps in 17:15, it's clear you won't run sub 17.

The question of how do we know someone is capable of it if they haven't is a good one. There is always some guesswork involved. In some cases, you can't even make a guess. For instance if an athlete has a bunch of wins in 13:10 with fast last laps of 52-54 seconds, we can't really say much other than that he is likely in low 13s or better shape. Whether its 13:00, 12:50, or sub 12:40 the athlete can run we don't know.

So, what does give clues:

1) Fast races in which the runner struggled to closed well. If a 5k guy runs 12:00 to bell and comes home in 58, we can be fairly confident they didn't have low 12:50 ability that day.

2) Consistency, in the case of dominant athletes. Athletes have bad days, and those days can have you off your game by at least 3-5 seconds for mile. If a guy always wins convincing in races of 3:30-3:35 times, but has never been in a fast race, you can be confident the athlete is likely in at least a few seconds better (10-15s for 5000) shape. If, for example, Farah was only capable of 12:50 at best then he would certainly have lost some races. A bad day for 12:50 guy would have him in 13:00 ability on that day. Well if it's a 13:02 race, an athlete in 13:00 shape is not going to go 12:10 to bell and close in 52, he's going to be almost maxed at the bell.

This should also be easy to envision. Take your own fitness and imagine running 10s off your PR and how you will feel at the bell. Are you really coming home in 53? Doubt it...

3) Using known times at other races. If a runner has, say, run 12:40 for 5k and 26:40 for 10k then you can accurately determine what he can run at other races from 400m - 1/2 Marathon (omiting marathon because other factors besides aerobic ability come into play)

4) Looking at PRs/fast races from the athlete and seeing how they wasted time. If an athlete goes solo at 1k and runs a 12:50 5k, that's a whole lot different from an athlete who gets 10:15 pacing to 4k and finishes in 12:50. Good example of this is Rupp's run. 26:44 is great, but he had perfect pacing till 8k. Compare that to Wanjiru's run behind Bekele's WR, he went out way to hard after Bekele, and was solo from about 4k onwards. No question Wanjiru was in better shape than Rupp that day.

ukathleticscoach wrote:Ventolin all your comments about head wind timing etc are completely undermined by none sprinters running well ahead of Farah in the same race

is this a joke ???

mo, was completely wrecked from huge winning season winning double gold

he certainly was worth 12-flat/low in

"zurich"

Anthony Joshua ran 11.53 and Grabarz was also under 12

so ?

former a magnificent specimen & latter must do lot leg-work as that's required to jump 7'

both not having run hard 5k & 10ks before

the fat guy certainly good for ~ 11-flat if "zurich"

you think mo was "freshest" of the 3 ???

If you are giving Mo a second does that mean a 17 stone boxer can run 10.5!

is this a joke ???

do you have any clue about the sport ???

herschel ran 10.23 at 225

he gave even the King, King Carl a fright in a 60m, which you clearly didn't see

so Herschel coud run 10.23 at 225 what on earth makes you think 11-flat for a 235 is sceptical ?!

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote: Sub 12:40 & 26:30, I am more likely to believe the Yeti holidays on Mars then those times

you have absolutely no clue at all