WSOP, bad beats, great hands

thanks malmo

atbean@wiscDOTGOESHEREedu

Thanks malmo, that would be great.

malmo wrote:

Hmmmm... Don't know how to figure that one out,

The statistician in me just had to answer this. To calculate the probabilities in question, you have to consider all the possible scenarios:

Case 1: KK. The probability of getting KK on the final two cards is (2 kings/47 cards left)(1 king/46 cards left)=0.000925. Remember that once the first king comes out, there is only one left in the deck.

Case 2: K then something not an ace or king. (2 kings/47 cards left)(41 non king or ace cards/46 cards left)=0.037928.

Case 3: Something not an ace or king then a king. (41 non king or ace cards/47 cards left)(2 kings/46 cards left)=0.037928.

So those three cases will result in a win for the K9. Add up the probabilities, and you get 0.076781, or 7.6781%. I think I did that right. Of course it gets more complicated when flushes come into play, but the idea is the same, namely what are the possible scenarios and the probability of that scenario.

anyone know a link where I can get a complete list of who is left after round 1?

Had 8D9D in the hole the other day playing $50/NL, sitting with $73 at the table. No one raised preflop so obviously I played.

Flop was 7D, 10D, 10C. Someone raised $1 so I decided to be "that guy" and fish. Open ended straight flush draws are my vice.

Sure enough, the turn card was a 6D. I now had the nut straight flush. Someone raised $5, I called. I wanted as much possible out of this sucker.

Turn came 3S, guy across from me goes all in- $79.

I call, and he turns over quad 10's. If I were him, I might have thrown my monitor out the window. Talk about a bad beat-- but that's what you get for slowplaying the quads. If he had bet $3, I would have been out-- instead, he let me see my straight flush for $1.

Oh, the joy of Party Poker.

You both played your hands right, your macho talk of "fishes and suckers" aside.

If you ever let go of a 15 card out on a lousy 3 dollar bet you shouldn't be sitting at a poker table you should be investing in T-Bills.

updates wrote:

anyone know a link where I can get a complete list of who is left after round 1?

The reporting of results has been terrible this year. If Harrah's is listing them they're not making it easy on anyone.

The first three flights are listed. Yesterdays result (flight D) is not.

Combined flights start today: A+B is today, tommorrow C+D, Thursday ABCD combined. Final day is August 10th.

Try Cardplayer.com.

PMac wrote:

Try Cardplayer.com.

Sames results on a worse viewing format. As if I'm going to scroll through 45 pages to find someone?

That pokerpages link is the best I've seen so far.

Anybody still have a buddy in it? My friend is hanging in there at just under 19,000 chips.

Oh well, he's out now. QQ beat by AA.

malmo wrote:

You both played your hands right, your macho talk of "fishes and suckers" aside.

If you ever let go of a 15 card out on a lousy 3 dollar bet you shouldn't be sitting at a poker table you should be investing in T-Bills.

Malmo, are you implying that he pay no attention to pot odds?

He didnt have 15 outs either. the board was paired and the guy had quads. He had 2 outs.

but he doesn't know the guy has quads, to make his hand, he's got the flush, and straight draws, 15 outs. if he had known his opponents had quads i'm sure he wouldn't have called the bet, but it's not that easy.

wong wrote:

malmo wrote:

You both played your hands right, your macho talk of "fishes and suckers" aside.

If you ever let go of a 15 card out on a lousy 3 dollar bet you shouldn't be sitting at a poker table you should be investing in T-Bills.

Malmo, are you implying that he pay no attention to pot odds?

He didnt have 15 outs either. the board was paired and the guy had quads. He had 2 outs.

I don't pretend to have the knowledge that Malmo does, but to me the 2 outs is only relevant if you're watching on tv or looking back in retrospect. That situation is almost never going to occur. I would think when looking at your outs you would almost completely discount the chance that someone flopped quads.

wong wrote:

Malmo, are you implying that he pay no attention to pot odds?

He didn't have 15 outs either. the board was paired and the guy had quads. He had 2 outs.

Your outs are determined contemporaneously, not posthumously.

The information that you have is that you have a 15 card out, two of those giving you the nuts. You will always have pot odds in your favor with a 15 card out.

You have additional information that the board is paired. Your presumption is that someone 'might' have trips, even so you can out draw them.

Since the betting action doesn't indicate anything (the guy with the quads played his hand right even though the result wasn't in his favor) you're going to call any small raise. Any sizable raise here is where your table savvy will come in. You never assume your opponent flopped quads. Your biggest worry is that he already filled up, but the action didn't tell you anything. Your opponent might raise with trips, over pairs, or two pair with an Ace kicker to test you. Since he didn't bet really big your draw and pot odds are in your favor.

If you cannot play a 15 card out you should be buying T-bills.

One of the worst things about televised poker (or best things, depending on your perspective) is showing win percentages during play. It completely distorts the actual dynamic at the table. Poker is played by analyzing and comparing known information to the unknown. You do not have the luxury of replaying the hand with known probabilities.

Got knocked out of a tourney on this hand, although I've been on a great run in the cash game lately.

I get K9, there is a small raise pre-flop, and most people see the flop. Flop comes AAA. It checked all the way around. Turn is a J, it checks all the way around again. River is a K, so I make the best possible full house (AAAKK). It checked to me, I bet substantially, everyone folds except one original checker who goes all-in. He wasn't the guy who raised initially, and he had checked his hand three times, including after the river card. So I figure he's also got a king and is trying to steal the pot, so I call so we at least split the pot. He turns over A4. He flopped quad aces and had the balls to slow play it hoping to trap someone (me unfortunately).

(a) fold pre-flop

(b) don't bet the river-- you're never getting called by a worse hand there

These are bad plays on my part, but being a newer player it is hard to throw away a "big" hand.

On 2 or 3 tournaments on pokerstars I have lost with trips, each time the person that beat me had a full house.

the last time I had K4 suited, I was big blind and one guy made a small raise, everyone else folded and I called. The flop came out 4 J 4. I put the guy on A J or something like that based on the raise. He raised and I called. The turn was a 2 - can't remember suits but not a chance of draw. the guy goes all in, and I was short stacked at the time so I figured he had top pair and was trying to bully me out - I call. Guy turns over JJ so I was pretty much drawing dead (only a 4 would have saved me.)

I have a lot to learn still.