THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
I get it, but I think it’s just overly critical. How many guys has Yared Nuguse lost to in those two finals? So while I think your critiques are valid, they are holding Hocker to just such a high standard to win every unpaced race vs comparable athletes. He’s better than Strand/Koech but one guy won a DL and the other ran 12.6 in that very race to run 3:30. Nobody expected those guys could do that (run mid-12s in the last 100). They haven’t done it since frankly.
TI understand your POV as you see a guy who has the ability to win every race if he ran perfect tactics. But I’d also say a guy like Josh Kerr is being underestimated by you. Kerr ran 8:00.67 and trounced the field in 2024 World Indoors. He won Budapest running 3:29-low with a 53 last lap running wide. He’s no schlub and if Hocker is better it’s pretty marginal. Look at the Philly GST where Hocker ran a far better tactical race and Kerr still won. And yes Kerr has also had tough days at the office. He’s been open his injury in the semi was a tactical blunder in essence. Lost track of where everyone was and injured himself trying to compensate. But he also rightly believes he can win every unpaced race if he nails his tactics. Jakob believes it too. But the truth is none of these guys win every time, and it’s not surprising to me it’s that way. I think Hockers tactics are hit or miss but again the actual record is not so bad, and there are just countless guys who struggle in rounds, let alone finals with worse tactics.
Good discussion.
Firstly I don't compare Hocker to Nuguse. Hocker has the X factor and arsenal to win big races and quite simply Nuguse doesn't. Nuguse's biggest championship win was the US outdoor title in 2023? (I know he's won 4 DL races which is great - but they aren't championships). So honestly, Yared is irrelevant to this discussion (no disrespect intended).
Regarding Hocker and his ability to win every race right now? Well I would say yes to that with a caveat - given that he famously focusses on championships, I wouldn't expect him to win multiple DLs a-la Jakob, but yes I do think he can win every championship race at this point in his career where he is smack bang in the middle of his career peak window and it's not like we haven't seen this before from greats (and I'll go up as high as El G who of course got it done each and every time aside from once in his great career).
I disagree with the "perfect tactic" assumption because I actually don't think he needs to be perfect at all - that is very rare just due to the nature of racing. But right now he's rolling out the c- playbook here and it appears he's consciously doing it. I've asked this question before - have you ever seen a guy of his level run this way? And his level is Olympic and World Champion level which puts in the same stratosphere as Coe, Morceli, El G et al. I mean even Jakob who people rip for his one-dimensional approach isn't as bad as this. Like what did Josh Kerr do yesterday that Cole Hocker couldn't have done? What did Adrien Ben do so well tactically in the World 1500m semi that he qualified for the final and din't get himself DQ'd. Why can Nathan Green and Luke Houser put themselves in good spots in an indoor 1500m and he can't?
I'm not underestimating Josh Kerr - when did I do that? I'm just looking pragmatically at that race. If Hocker is only marginally better positioned he wins. He ran 26.04 for the final 200m going around 4 guys and made up 0.30 on Kerr who ran 26.34 going past one. There was no reason physical ability wise Hocker should have been there - the reason he was is because his tactic is to lead every final early but not commit to staying at the front of the race, or moving off the pole line until the final 200m. With that formula it is simply impossible for you not to be swallowed up and shuffled back through a pack. That is literally the only thing that can possibly happen. And when that happens you need to pray that whoever is in front of you bends enough for you to impose your race-best talent on them and win.
He can believe that he's going to win unpaced races doing this, but I promise you and him he's not. Using this series of tactics he's gone 3/7 since the Olympic final (which wasn't run this way). He won the US and world outdoor 5000 and indoor 3000, and been beaten in the US 1500, the world 1500 semi, the US indoor 1500 and now the world indoor 3000. And yet if he just made a small tweak to this (don't lead early, don't get passed by 4-5 guys as you enter into the business end of the race) I think he could be as dominant as the all-time greats and why wouldn't you aspire to be with his level of ability?