One problem with your data is that you only found a couple of similar examples over several years, while we know that over 30% dope at the global championship level. So, if there are only 5 exceptional progressions in the last 10 years from some 100 global championship 1500 m runners (over 40 per event, 5 events with lots of runners participating more than once), then yes, most likely all of 5 exceptions doped, plus 25 more - less suspicious - runners.
Exact number may vary of course, these are all estimates, but you get my drift.
I get your drift, and I agree that my data aren’t proof against doping at all. And that was indeed my point: Data don’t prove nor disprove doping -testing and investigation (not the hobby sort of ones) are the only sure way…
”..most likely all of 5 exceptions doped..” -well, do you really think that’s a fair way to decide who is guilty or not..? Would you do the same in the courts; deciding whom deserve harsh punishment in a criminal case..? (“The black man did it, because in this neighbourhood blacks are somewhat more present in the statistics..”?)
I guess my mind was trying to make sense of his strange post.
If this guy drops from 3:36 to 3:28 this season, I would have no hesitation to say that he is likely on drugs. Even then though it wouldn't be on the scale of Katir, as his previous two seasons showed quite big jumps (normal for his age), while Katir appeared to be already reaching his level before he suddenly improved vastly in every distance. Then Katir's shady manager and Spanish-Moroccan background - the two worst countries outside of Kenya for confirmed EPO abuse.
There's nothing more boring than speculative threads about doping based on results. It's the either/or mindset of the fake scientist. It's fake science to say that you know that someone is doping based on their results. Period. You can say that someone is suspicious, but it's not like the body has one or two on-off switches labeled "Dope" or "no Dope," and it's not as if athletes and coaches aren't looking for legit (and semi-legit, but not illegal) ways to improve performance. There are also a zillion substances in the world, and most of them aren't banned. Furthermore there's no commonality that encompasses Usain Bolt on one side and Haile Gebrselassie on the other that says that human capacity is X.
I'm not gonna tell you that Katir or anyone else is or isn't clean (I find his response annoying), but I can tell you for freakin' sure that y'all usually don't know one way or another.
To be fair, this one is boring.
He's a Moroccan-Spanish who had a ridiculous breakthrough.
There's not even a question here. You're in cloud cuckoo land if you genuinely believe he could be clean.
Ahhh... Xenophobia is alive and well with good old trollism.
If this guy drops from 3:36 to 3:28 this season, I would have no hesitation to say that he is likely on drugs. Even then though it wouldn't be on the scale of Katir,
If Jake Wightman drop from 3:29 to 3:27 you will find all the reason and logic of the world that was clean process.
I guess my mind was trying to make sense of his strange post.
If this guy drops from 3:36 to 3:28 this season, I would have no hesitation to say that he is likely on drugs. Even then though it wouldn't be on the scale of Katir, as his previous two seasons showed quite big jumps (normal for his age), while Katir appeared to be already reaching his level before he suddenly improved vastly in every distance. Then Katir's shady manager and Spanish-Moroccan background - the two worst countries outside of Kenya for confirmed EPO abuse.
I don’t know Coevett -you may of course be right concerning Katir. But you may also be wrong.. I too like to speculate, but things in the human sphere are complicated and unsure, so I prefer saying we don’t know, and must go for real evidence (demand that the WA ensure better founding from its sponsors to strongly update the testing -I too am fed up with the doping in Africa an other places)…
Katir’s Moroccan background doesn’t strike me as a red flag (him being so young when he moved to Spain), but of course one never knows. And Spain has been somewhat shady some years ago. But all this is fluffy speculations and not fair to Katir -it’s in a sense like saying Jakob must be doping because dope is far more available in Norway nowadays than f.ex in the 1970s…
You can keep on saying what you say about doping, and people who already agree will keep on agreeing, and the rest will disagree. And I can do the same, with the same results…
I think we should join forces, and demand better testing and better investigation…
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
Who says that 3:40 was all he was capable of in 2018? Perhaps he was capable of 3:36 in 2018? In which case he was a 3:36 runner aged 20 - 22 and then dropped an 8 second improvement at age 23.
Who says that 3:40 was all he was capable of in 2018? Perhaps he was capable of 3:36 in 2018? In which case he was a 3:36 runner aged 20 - 22 and then dropped an 8 second improvement at age 23.
Are we supposed to pretend that athletes run their maximum potential in every event in every season, so that year on year comparisons are always valid, regardless of circumstances?
What about things like injury, opportunity, level of training, changes in training, race tactics, training goals, etc. that can change from season to season?
There can be half a dozen reasons for an 8 second improvement at age 23.
Who says that 3:40 was all he was capable of in 2018? Perhaps he was capable of 3:36 in 2018? In which case he was a 3:36 runner aged 20 - 22 and then dropped an 8 second improvement at age 23.
Are we supposed to pretend that athletes run their maximum potential in every event in every season, so that year on year comparisons are always valid, regardless of circumstances?
What about things like injury, opportunity, level of training, changes in training, race tactics, training goals, etc. that can change from season to season?
There can be half a dozen reasons for an 8 second improvement at age 23.
Who says that 3:40 was all he was capable of in 2018? Perhaps he was capable of 3:36 in 2018? In which case he was a 3:36 runner aged 20 - 22 and then dropped an 8 second improvement at age 23.
Are we supposed to pretend that athletes run their maximum potential in every event in every season, so that year on year comparisons are always valid, regardless of circumstances?
What about things like injury, opportunity, level of training, changes in training, race tactics, training goals, etc. that can change from season to season?
There can be half a dozen reasons for an 8 second improvement at age 23.
So you think a change in race tactics allowed Katir to go from fringe national class runner to near European record holder in the 1500/3000/5000 in one season?
Katir finished 7th in the Spanish championships in 2020.
His time of 3:36 was the 6th fastest in Spain that year.
That was his level in 2020.
The next year he ran faster than Cacho and missed the European record by 0.08 seconds.
Many people thought he would win the 1500m gold in Tokyo (he didn't run it).
What 'any number of reasons' other than EPO helps you go from 7th in Spain to the 2nd fastest ever in Europe in a matter of months, and then no visible progression in the next 2 years?
Katir finished 7th in the Spanish championships in 2020.
His time of 3:36 was the 6th fastest in Spain that year.
That was his level in 2020.
The next year he ran faster than Cacho and missed the European record by 0.08 seconds.
Many people thought he would win the 1500m gold in Tokyo (he didn't run it).
What 'any number of reasons' other than EPO helps you go from 7th in Spain to the 2nd fastest ever in Europe in a matter of months, and then no visible progression in the next 2 years?
Yes he had a nice improvement from 2020 (a good year for him getting down to 7:44) to 2021 indoors, and then a substantial improvement between March and May from good Continental runner (7:35i, 4th in Europe) to one of the best in the world. I feel like we've been over it. You don't need to embellish with statements like "Many people thought he would win the 1500m gold in Tokyo (he didn't run it)." People would've favored Tim or Jakob and he was considered a contender in the 5,000, but by no means THE favorite. Or "no visible progression in the next 2 years" when he's run 7:24i and picked up some hardware last year as well as the biggest victory of his career a few days ago. He had a big drop from Fall 2020 to Indoor 2021 and then a really important one from there. Those are the facts, you don't need to misrepresent them.
Can we all at least agree that if Katir isn't doping, there is a big chance non one is, because he seem to be by far the most obvious. Not saying he is doping, but defenders must believe no one is then.
Who says that 3:40 was all he was capable of in 2018? Perhaps he was capable of 3:36 in 2018? In which case he was a 3:36 runner aged 20 - 22 and then dropped an 8 second improvement at age 23.
Who says that 3:28 was all he was capable of in 2021? Maybe he was capable of 3:26 and he improved his level of fitness in three years by 14 seconds. Or he would have been capable of 3:34 in 2020 without injuries and other difficulties? Or or or...
Do you think McSweyn is clean? 2:01 800m PB. Clear EPO sign, don't you think?
Are we supposed to pretend that athletes run their maximum potential in every event in every season, so that year on year comparisons are always valid, regardless of circumstances?
What about things like injury, opportunity, level of training, changes in training, race tactics, training goals, etc. that can change from season to season?
There can be half a dozen reasons for an 8 second improvement at age 23.
So you think a change in race tactics allowed Katir to go from fringe national class runner to near European record holder in the 1500/3000/5000 in one season?
Not quite what I said. I think there can be half a dozen reasons why one season, or a few seasons in a row, might be slower than an athlete's maximum best, and why an athlete might significantly improve with a couple of years of consistent training.
It doesn't seem all that bright to try to reduce it to one explanation, at the cost of ignoring everything else.
I see in 2019, he was still training in a dirt field in Mula, and didn't have any income, nor a Spanish passport. 2020 was a Covid year, so there were probably not a lot of opportunities to get in a fast race.
Given his potential shown in 2018, and then considering a couple years of proper training with club support, and maybe some extra money to buy new shoes, I see quite a few reasons why he would improve from 2018 to 2021. 3:28.76 is world fast, but it was in 2021, in Monaco, likely with new shoes.
These jumps in improvements don't seem all that different from how many athletes improve after high school through university to becoming pro. After 5 years of University, one of the site founders improved his 10K time by 1:40 seconds in three years.