Everyone here talking about EVs taking over are living in an alternate reality on the coasts.
Alan
Hold on. This particular thread is asking when the bigger, more established auto makers will surpass Tesla in annual EV sales.
Do you have an opinion on that? Do you think Tesla will remain the leader in EV sales or do you see a point where someone will pass them and when?
Not plug-in hybrids, either. Straight EVs or whatever group of letters means that.
Tesla has already been surpassed in EV sales by BYD this year, the articles have been posted several times in this thread. So the answer to your question is last month.
Another reason why I don't see EVs taking over soon. My wife forgets to charge our PHEV half the time. We take turns using it and I usually end up with an empty battery when I start it up. Good thing it has a gas tank for backup. My wife forgets to charge her phone all the time and her sisters and friends are the same way, so they would be the same with EVs.
Tesla hasn't even sold a million EVs per year yet. Toyota sells 10 million cars per year which all have way more parts and are more complex to make. LoL if you think a giant manufacturer like Toyota or Volkswagen isn't capable of catching up to Tesla.
Also there is a heat wave across the country and many major metro areas are warning residents to conserve power because the power grid cannot handle it. LoL if you think the power grid can handle charging an EV for every ICE on the road. Look what happened to Texas a couple winters ago. When power goes out, you need gas for backup otherwise you'll be stranded in freezing cold or sweltering heat.
Everyone here talking about EVs taking over are living in an alternate reality on the coasts.
Alan
The coasts, where over 50% of Americans live?
Correct! Everything happens on the coasts first then it starts to trickle inward. Given the number of pickup trucks and hellcats I see on a daily basis I don't see EVs taking over anytime soon. Hybrids I believe have a chance though.
They aren't waiting because of a lithium shortage. There may come a day later this decade where lithium mining and refining is the bottleneck, but we aren't there yet.
The reason people (including me) are still waiting for 2021 orders to be fulfilled is because demand is so high and nobody can make EVs fast enough.
Tesla is the only company currently able to make EVs in high volume and they can't keep up with demand either. That's why prices are so high. But even rising prices doesn't seem to be scaring off Tesla customers. Waiting lists are still very long.
Waiting lists are long for any car. Rav4 Prime, ID4, Ioniq5, EV6, BZ4X etc are all 1 year+. Musk said himself that prices are high due to skyrocketing material costs, not demand.
Musk has also said demand has far exceeded even Tesla's expectations.
It's true that demand for all cars is outstripping supply.
But if material costs and (chip) shortages are the only problem, why is it that Tesla's US sales are growing more than 50% year over year while the others see sales falling?
PHEVs can be a good compromise, but it just isn't true that EV infrastructure isn't there yet. We've been a two-EV family for over a year when we sold our hybrid.
And every road trip we have taken since 2017 has been in a full EV. Even back then, we preferred the EV to the hybrid. Today, we always take the Tesla. Superchargers are everywhere and they are very fast and reliable.
Depends on where you are. My relatives had a Model Y and they said it was a nightmare to drive from Boston to Toronto. They had to go out of their way to charge and wait around. They sold it and bought a Toyota Highlander. By the way the backseat of the Y is horrible. My Rav4 is 10x more comfortable to sit in.
I don't know why your relatives had a problem. I took a quick look and there are plenty of superchargers from Boston to Toronto and they are all right off the interstate. According to abetterrouteplanner.com, three quick stops of 15, 25, and 7 minutes is all it takes to make that trip.
At least on paper, the Tesla Model Y would be more comfortable in the rear seat than a Rav4 on a road trip. But everyone's set preferences do differ.
Rav4 rear seat dimensions: Second Row Head Room (inches) 39.5 Second Row Leg Room (inches) 37.8 Second Row Shoulder Room (inches) 56.4 Second Row Hip Room (inches) 47.7
Model Y rear seat dimensions: Second Row Head Room (inches) 39.4 Second Row Leg Room (inches) 40.5 Second Row Shoulder Room (inches) 54 Second Row Hip Room (inches) 50.6
I think Tesla fanboys have tunnel vision. The average American cannot afford a $400 emergency much less a $50k Tesla without tax credit. EVs are a niche and Teslas are a niche of a niche. My wife and I can afford a Tesla but it's overpriced and uncomfortable so we aren't interested. We can literally get 2 Volkswagen ID4s for the price of one Model Y due to the lower price and tax credit and state rebates. There is no the majority of America will be driving EVs in less than ten years. All of my neighbors won't even upgrade their lawn mower or snowblower to an electric one.
You are correct. Gas cars will be with us a lot longer than 10 years. I'm talking about US new car sales.
By 2030, 90% of all new US light duty vehicles will have a plug.
Yes, the ID4 is a bargain right now if you can get your hands on one.
Yes, the ID4 is a bargain right now if you can get your hands on one.
Oh, but do be careful that you are dealing with a reputable dealership (do they exist?).
Dealers don't have to sell you the car for MSRP. Many dealerships are marking up EVs by 10K or more over MSRP. For some vehicles, I've see markups exceeding 50K. Will your dealership put in writing the price you will pay for the car you ordered? If not, you could be in for a surprise.
Tesla will always honor the price quoted when you ordered, even if the car you ordered many months ago has gone up substantially in price..
I'm all for EVs but you gotta think of what the average American wants. They want an all wheel drive truck that they can take off road and tow thousands of pounds. No BEVs or PHEVs can do that now. I'm not a car enthusiast, I use it to get to work and back so I couldn't care less for the software. The only reason we are getting an ID4 is because of the tax incentives, otherwise we'd just get an an ICE RAV4 or CR-V because it's too expensive.
That's not at all true. The towing capacity of the three electric trucks now on the market is far better than most gas powered trucks. They are all wheel drive and they handle much better off road due to their weight and low center of gravity.
Check out: Rivian R1T Ford F150 Lightning GMC Hummer EV
Granted, these are very expensive right now. But they are all brand new. Cost will come down over time.
As a work truck, these are much better than their gas counterparts because they have a lot more storage capacity and you can plug in your power tools.
Hold on. This particular thread is asking when the bigger, more established auto makers will surpass Tesla in annual EV sales.
Do you have an opinion on that? Do you think Tesla will remain the leader in EV sales or do you see a point where someone will pass them and when?
Not plug-in hybrids, either. Straight EVs or whatever group of letters means that.
Tesla has already been surpassed in EV sales by BYD this year, the articles have been posted several times in this thread. So the answer to your question is last month.
And as we have posted several times on this thread, that is pure BS.
About half of BYD's sales were hybrids, not pure EVs.
Even with the shutdown of Tesla's Shanghai factory due to covid, Tesla still sold more EV's by A LOT.
First half of 2022 BYD EVs: 323,519 Tesla EVs: 564,743
(Also, the thread is whether legacy automakers will surpass Tesla. BYD is not legacy. If anyone does out sell Tesla eventually, it will be a Chinese brand.)
Another reason why I don't see EVs taking over soon. My wife forgets to charge our PHEV half the time. We take turns using it and I usually end up with an empty battery when I start it up. Good thing it has a gas tank for backup. My wife forgets to charge her phone all the time and her sisters and friends are the same way, so they would be the same with EVs.
Tesla hasn't even sold a million EVs per year yet. Toyota sells 10 million cars per year which all have way more parts and are more complex to make. LoL if you think a giant manufacturer like Toyota or Volkswagen isn't capable of catching up to Tesla.
Also there is a heat wave across the country and many major metro areas are warning residents to conserve power because the power grid cannot handle it. LoL if you think the power grid can handle charging an EV for every ICE on the road. Look what happened to Texas a couple winters ago. When power goes out, you need gas for backup otherwise you'll be stranded in freezing cold or sweltering heat.
I've been driving an EV since 2017. I have never started the day with an empty battery. An EV will warn you sternly if your battery is too low. Maybe when you don't have the gas engine you are more diligent about plugging it in.
Tesla has sold over a million EVs in the past 12 months. The first calendar year over a million will be 2022. It is expected they will sell about 1.4 million to 1.6 million this year. In 2023, Tesla should easily exceed 2 million.
If the legacy automakers can easily catch Tesla, why haven't they done it? No other automaker is even close. And no other automaker has even been able to scale up production enough to make a profit on EVs yet. They haven't yet figured out how to make EVs in high volume.
The grid can easily handle EVs. This FUD has been knocked down repeatedly. EVs typically charge at night when there is plenty of excess grid capacity.
In the Texas disaster, those with a Tesla could keep warm in their cars for a couple of days without breathing toxic fumes. Many of those with gas cars died or had to seek treatment.
At least 11 deaths have been confirmed and more than 1,400 people sought care at emergency rooms and urgent care clinics for carbon monoxide poisoning during the weeklong Texas outage. Children made up 42% of the cases. The totals don’t include residents who were poisoned but did not seek care or those who were treated at hospitals and urgent care clinics that do not voluntarily report data to the state.
Depends on where you are. My relatives had a Model Y and they said it was a nightmare to drive from Boston to Toronto. They had to go out of their way to charge and wait around. They sold it and bought a Toyota Highlander. By the way the backseat of the Y is horrible. My Rav4 is 10x more comfortable to sit in.
I don't know why your relatives had a problem. I took a quick look and there are plenty of superchargers from Boston to Toronto and they are all right off the interstate. According to abetterrouteplanner.com, three quick stops of 15, 25, and 7 minutes is all it takes to make that trip.
At least on paper, the Tesla Model Y would be more comfortable in the rear seat than a Rav4 on a road trip. But everyone's set preferences do differ.
Rav4 rear seat dimensions: Second Row Head Room (inches) 39.5 Second Row Leg Room (inches) 37.8 Second Row Shoulder Room (inches) 56.4 Second Row Hip Room (inches) 47.7
Model Y rear seat dimensions: Second Row Head Room (inches) 39.4 Second Row Leg Room (inches) 40.5 Second Row Shoulder Room (inches) 54 Second Row Hip Room (inches) 50.6
IDK they told me it was a nightmare and they are Tesla fanboys/girls so I was very surprised that they sold their Y. They went all in TSLA stock and got Tesla solar panels. They have another Model Y... Now instead of two Model Y they have one and a Highlander.
The backseats aren't just about dimensions, it's about comfort. In the Model Y you feel every little bump in the road, it's very uncomfortable and almost painful to sit in. Any Rav or CR-V has a smoother ride because they are real SUVs that you can take off road. I drive over the same roads in my Rav and don't feel a thing.
Here is an unbiased car review of Model Y vs Mach E vs ID4. At 6:20 the guy says the Y has a terrible backseat. But they praise the other parts like the software and design.
The Mustang Mach-E and VW ID4 represent two huge brands first foray into Electric CUVs. They join the long running Tesla Model Y in our comparison and discus...
Yes, the ID4 is a bargain right now if you can get your hands on one.
Oh, but do be careful that you are dealing with a reputable dealership (do they exist?).
Dealers don't have to sell you the car for MSRP. Many dealerships are marking up EVs by 10K or more over MSRP. For some vehicles, I've see markups exceeding 50K. Will your dealership put in writing the price you will pay for the car you ordered? If not, you could be in for a surprise.
Tesla will always honor the price quoted when you ordered, even if the car you ordered many months ago has gone up substantially in price..
Yep there are plenty of dealers that sell at MSRP. They are easy to find. I paid MSRP for my Rav4 Prime and we are going to pay MSRP for our ID4 or BZ4X, whichever comes first. Only suckers pay markup. Model 3 used to be 37, now it's 47k. Model Y used to be 43k, now it's a whooping 67k. So is there really a difference between dealers and no dealers? The only difference is Tesla is making everyone pay 24k more for Model Y than two years ago.
I'm all for EVs but you gotta think of what the average American wants. They want an all wheel drive truck that they can take off road and tow thousands of pounds. No BEVs or PHEVs can do that now. I'm not a car enthusiast, I use it to get to work and back so I couldn't care less for the software. The only reason we are getting an ID4 is because of the tax incentives, otherwise we'd just get an an ICE RAV4 or CR-V because it's too expensive.
That's not at all true. The towing capacity of the three electric trucks now on the market is far better than most gas powered trucks. They are all wheel drive and they handle much better off road due to their weight and low center of gravity.
Check out: Rivian R1T Ford F150 Lightning GMC Hummer EV
Granted, these are very expensive right now. But they are all brand new. Cost will come down over time.
As a work truck, these are much better than their gas counterparts because they have a lot more storage capacity and you can plug in your power tools.
So why would anyone who needs towing capacity buy a Tesla over those 3 models?
I don't know why your relatives had a problem. I took a quick look and there are plenty of superchargers from Boston to Toronto and they are all right off the interstate. According to abetterrouteplanner.com, three quick stops of 15, 25, and 7 minutes is all it takes to make that trip.
At least on paper, the Tesla Model Y would be more comfortable in the rear seat than a Rav4 on a road trip. But everyone's set preferences do differ.
Rav4 rear seat dimensions: Second Row Head Room (inches) 39.5 Second Row Leg Room (inches) 37.8 Second Row Shoulder Room (inches) 56.4 Second Row Hip Room (inches) 47.7
Model Y rear seat dimensions: Second Row Head Room (inches) 39.4 Second Row Leg Room (inches) 40.5 Second Row Shoulder Room (inches) 54 Second Row Hip Room (inches) 50.6
IDK they told me it was a nightmare and they are Tesla fanboys/girls so I was very surprised that they sold their Y. They went all in TSLA stock and got Tesla solar panels. They have another Model Y... Now instead of two Model Y they have one and a Highlander.
The backseats aren't just about dimensions, it's about comfort. In the Model Y you feel every little bump in the road, it's very uncomfortable and almost painful to sit in. Any Rav or CR-V has a smoother ride because they are real SUVs that you can take off road. I drive over the same roads in my Rav and don't feel a thing.
Here is an unbiased car review of Model Y vs Mach E vs ID4. At 6:20 the guy says the Y has a terrible backseat. But they praise the other parts like the software and design.
If it's about bumps, then I understand. The Tesla has a very tight suspension. It's built for handling and performance more than off-roading. Depends on what you want.
That's not at all true. The towing capacity of the three electric trucks now on the market is far better than most gas powered trucks. They are all wheel drive and they handle much better off road due to their weight and low center of gravity.
Check out: Rivian R1T Ford F150 Lightning GMC Hummer EV
Granted, these are very expensive right now. But they are all brand new. Cost will come down over time.
As a work truck, these are much better than their gas counterparts because they have a lot more storage capacity and you can plug in your power tools.
So why would anyone who needs towing capacity buy a Tesla over those 3 models?
Depends on how much towing capacity you need. Model Y and Model X have decent towing capacity and better range.
The king of EV towing capacity and range will eventually be the Cybertruck.
Oh, but do be careful that you are dealing with a reputable dealership (do they exist?).
Dealers don't have to sell you the car for MSRP. Many dealerships are marking up EVs by 10K or more over MSRP. For some vehicles, I've see markups exceeding 50K. Will your dealership put in writing the price you will pay for the car you ordered? If not, you could be in for a surprise.
Tesla will always honor the price quoted when you ordered, even if the car you ordered many months ago has gone up substantially in price..
Yep there are plenty of dealers that sell at MSRP. They are easy to find. I paid MSRP for my Rav4 Prime and we are going to pay MSRP for our ID4 or BZ4X, whichever comes first. Only suckers pay markup. Model 3 used to be 37, now it's 47k. Model Y used to be 43k, now it's a whooping 67k. So is there really a difference between dealers and no dealers? The only difference is Tesla is making everyone pay 24k more for Model Y than two years ago.
The difference is no haggling and no surprises. With Tesla they honor the price of your order. With a sleazy dealership, you never know.
And you are being misleading about the price increase of the Model Y. The 43k lower range version was only on sale in the US for a couple of months. The price has not gone up by 24k.
It's not easy to get a Mach E or F150 Lighting without paying a significant markup over MSRP.
Toyota only plans to sell 7000 BZ4X this year in the US. Good luck finding one at MSRP.
Will your dealer put in writing that they will sell you the ID4 at MSRP when it arrives? You might have decent luck with that one.
