Olympic Men's 1500m

Stop wrote:

Guys Engles doesn't deserve a chance to go. He lost at the trails fair and square and it wasn't even close. In the last month he has had terrible results and probably hasn't been training at a high level. So now you want to send him on a 15+ hour flight with a 16 hour time difference on 48 hours notice just to get embarrassed by other runners? He just got smacked in the US some "B" level 1500 level runners. Get over it. Yared did nothing wrong. He tried his best to make it to the line. You think he wanted to lose out on his dream?

This. Engels may be the most overrated US runner in decades. Maybe ever. He would not have come close to getting out of the prelims. Dude is all hat no cattle in big races.

swattie wrote:

Cole Hocker really loves the inside lane but he needs to be careful not to get boxed in again. This is the 2nd time I’ve seen him not utilize the full potential of his kick because he’s trapped on the inside. He needs to trust himself to run on the outside and maintain distance with the front pack. I doubt anyone could match him in a final sprint

Agreed. He needs to learn to move up into position with around 500-600 to go. He can't wait for the last 300.

I hope you are right. Remember Centro's win in 3:50 though? Who knows what we will see in the final of the 1500m. I'd like to see a fast race but we all have seen tactical bunched up races as well.

swattie wrote:

Cole Hocker really loves the inside lane but he needs to be careful not to get boxed in again. This is the 2nd time I’ve seen him not utilize the full potential of his kick because he’s trapped on the inside. He needs to trust himself to run on the outside and maintain distance with the front pack. I doubt anyone could match him in a final sprint

He's got a PR, 5 seconds slower than most of the field and 6 to 7 seconds slower than the contenders. It's a little ridiculous to be talking about his kick and being able to match it. Reality is he's a non-factor.

cart, horse wrote:

swattie wrote:

Cole Hocker really loves the inside lane but he needs to be careful not to get boxed in again. This is the 2nd time I’ve seen him not utilize the full potential of his kick because he’s trapped on the inside. He needs to trust himself to run on the outside and maintain distance with the front pack. I doubt anyone could match him in a final sprint

He's got a PR, 5 seconds slower than most of the field and 6 to 7 seconds slower than the contenders. It's a little ridiculous to be talking about his kick and being able to match it. Reality is he's a non-factor.

A non-factor unless the final goes at Centro pace. IF it does (and you know he's going to try), this can easily go Centro/Hocker, or Hocker/Centro, then anyone's guess.

Yes there are many guys who have faster pr's but who's going to take the chance and lead a fast paced race? It's almost suicide to do so with a deep field. The women's 5k went tactical when they all knew it probably would hand the gold to Hassan. I see it going pedestrian for 800 then maybe someone commits and goes but more likely an all out battle with 400-600 to go.

tarckstar wrote:

cart, horse wrote:

He's got a PR, 5 seconds slower than most of the field and 6 to 7 seconds slower than the contenders. It's a little ridiculous to be talking about his kick and being able to match it. Reality is he's a non-factor.

A non-factor unless the final goes at Centro pace. IF it does (and you know he's going to try), this can easily go Centro/Hocker, or Hocker/Centro, then anyone's guess.

True, if it goes Rio 2.0 it's a crapshoot. That's a big IF. How many in the field are going to let that happen AGAIN. It's more likely that Hocker will only need to worry hanging on.

AP5000 wrote:

This. Engels may be the most overrated US runner in decades. Maybe ever. He would not have come close to getting out of the prelims. Dude is all hat no cattle in big races.

He comfortably made the final at Doha in 2019, but OK. Pretty similar fields...

birdbeard wrote:

Agreed. He needs to learn to move up into position with around 500-600 to go. He can't wait for the last 300.

If it's a slow tactical race position at 300 is literally all that matters, and you could probably argue it down to 150 meters to go. While I agree with the idea that Hocker ideally will have full room to run the last 100 (like he maneuvered at USAs), that is for the final not the heats or semis. In races where only top 5 or top 6 is required, he doesn't have to worry about having a fully clear run the last 100, just that he has enough room to edge out the necessary guys like he did.

cart, horse wrote:

swattie wrote:

Cole Hocker really loves the inside lane but he needs to be careful not to get boxed in again. This is the 2nd time I’ve seen him not utilize the full potential of his kick because he’s trapped on the inside. He needs to trust himself to run on the outside and maintain distance with the front pack. I doubt anyone could match him in a final sprint

He's got a PR, 5 seconds slower than most of the field and 6 to 7 seconds slower than the contenders. It's a little ridiculous to be talking about his kick and being able to match it. Reality is he's a non-factor.

a non-factor that outclassed a lot of guys with much faster prs in his heat. he ran 336 and was barely breathing at the end and admitted he didnt have to kick that hard at hall, but of course his pr is 335 so that is his ceiling right now.

tarckstar wrote:

A non-factor unless the final goes at Centro pace. IF it does (and you know he's going to try), this can easily go Centro/Hocker, or Hocker/Centro, then anyone's guess.

Tim wasn't in Rio. THIS race will absolutely not go like Rio. Even if Centro jumps out front and slows it down, Tim is going to charge right on by and run 3:29, leaving Centro in his dust.

Look, I cheered like an insane person in 2016 when Centro won. But he won that because there was no El G and not yet a "Potato Tim" - guys who will go hard from the gun at the front and dare anyone to beat them.

What would you have said about the 100 winner 1 week ago?

Bettingfool wrote:

Yes there are many guys who have faster pr's but who's going to take the chance and lead a fast paced race? It's almost suicide to do so with a deep field. The women's 5k went tactical when they all knew it probably would hand the gold to Hassan. I see it going pedestrian for 800 then maybe someone commits and goes but more likely an all out battle with 400-600 to go.

The difference is that there isn't anyone the "hand the gold to" in the mens 1500, suicide pace or tactical. With the exception of Tim hammering everyone. I'm just saying nobody is making decisions based on Hocker being in the race. I think he's a non-factor either way.

I don't think Hocker makes it out of this:

https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olympic-games/en/results/athletics/result-men-s-1500m-sfnl-000100-.htm

But depends on how fast they go. Could get a small q. I do think this semi will be faster than the second.

Alan

te5n1k wrote:

cart, horse wrote:

He's got a PR, 5 seconds slower than most of the field and 6 to 7 seconds slower than the contenders. It's a little ridiculous to be talking about his kick and being able to match it. Reality is he's a non-factor.

a non-factor that outclassed a lot of guys with much faster prs in his heat. he ran 336 and was barely breathing at the end and admitted he didnt have to kick that hard at hall, but of course his pr is 335 so that is his ceiling right now.

Outclassed how. He was 4th in his heat. You're assuming the others had to kick hard. How many in the top six in the first round heats had to kick hard for their position? Nobody said anything about a ceiling. But you are kidding yourself if you think 335 is anywhere close to 328,329 or 330.

lower than a snake's belly wrote:

What would you have said about the 100 winner 1 week ago?

Sure it was a shock. I don't think a 100 is the same thing. He had the European 60m record going into the olympics. Hocker isn't close to an american record in any event

cart, horse wrote:

te5n1k wrote:

a non-factor that outclassed a lot of guys with much faster prs in his heat. he ran 336 and was barely breathing at the end and admitted he didnt have to kick that hard at hall, but of course his pr is 335 so that is his ceiling right now.

Outclassed how. He was 4th in his heat. You're assuming the others had to kick hard. How many in the top six in the first round heats had to kick hard for their position? Nobody said anything about a ceiling. But you are kidding yourself if you think 335 is anywhere close to 328,329 or 330.

I think his ceiling is 3:32 but he's going to have much less kick at 3:32 than these 3:35-36s. The faster guys (ie: medal contenders) are running sub 3:30 and flat out flying the last 200-400 in a tactical 3:35-36 race.

He goes right to the rail and sits there the entire race. He's gonna get caught boxed in eventually.

Alan

cart, horse wrote:

swattie wrote:

Cole Hocker really loves the inside lane but he needs to be careful not to get boxed in again. This is the 2nd time I’ve seen him not utilize the full potential of his kick because he’s trapped on the inside. He needs to trust himself to run on the outside and maintain distance with the front pack. I doubt anyone could match him in a final sprint

He's got a PR, 5 seconds slower than most of the field and 6 to 7 seconds slower than the contenders. It's a little ridiculous to be talking about his kick and being able to match it. Reality is he's a non-factor.

I'm on the side that thinks Hocker is way overrated by the fanboys on this board, desperate for a great US distance talent. But to call him a non-factor is way off. His closing speed makes him a factor - did you see how what Raevyn Rogers did with an outrageous 100m kick in the 800? He's an outside bet, but the top guys would be fools to ignore anyone with that kind of 200m speed.

Also, no one knows what he's got in a fitness test type of race. Maybe he has a 3:30 in his locker if he is dragged around by Cheruiyot and Ingebrigtsen. It's an unknown at the minute

cart, horse wrote:

swattie wrote:

Cole Hocker really loves the inside lane but he needs to be careful not to get boxed in again. This is the 2nd time I’ve seen him not utilize the full potential of his kick because he’s trapped on the inside. He needs to trust himself to run on the outside and maintain distance with the front pack. I doubt anyone could match him in a final sprint

He's got a PR, 5 seconds slower than most of the field and 6 to 7 seconds slower than the contenders. It's a little ridiculous to be talking about his kick and being able to match it. Reality is he's a non-factor.

Why are we talking about PBs of a 20-year old?!

we all agree he has a pb of 3:35 and the talent to run faster.

You have to start somewhere. He’s 20 years old.

In 2021 he ran:

February- 3:50 mile

March - won indoor ncaa mile and ncaa 3000m

June - won 1500m, beats ncaa record holder nuguse

June - runs 13:18 5000m (4th I believe)

End of June - wins USA Olympic trials, 1500m. (Defeats reigning gold medalist and all-time most successful USA championship 1500m racer, centro)

Where in the schedule was he going to churn out a 3:32 for all of you knuckleheads?!

It’s like he’s a young mvp rookie quarterback who won the Super Bowl and people are upset that he doesnt have the all-time passing yards or touchdowns records in his first season

He needs time to enter fast races and run fast times. I see no space for that in his schedule (3:50 indoor mile is pretty impressive)