Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Beets,

It's a Veggie Burger perfect for a vegan. Stop by the drive thru and don't forget the side order of heartburn.

Igy

Those who are short, or on the sidelines, like you are the ones with the heartburn. You should invest in Tums. I'm having steak and champagne.

Here is a comment that actually has some substance:

"He suggested MCD was not a buy a year ago, when wall street was cheering the stock for some positive numbers. The analysts were clearly right - the stock is up around 12% from that point, vs. around 8 for the SP500.

Odd. I just looked this up and the current stock price is $113 .93 while exactly one year ago it closed at $110.87. Now I did not do the calculation on a computer or spread sheet, but that's a 3% return.

Not 12%. Not even close."

Now here is your comment:

"Hi, K5/Igy! 10 minutes is getting better, but the back-to-back posting is still a dead giveaway. Anyway congrats on finally figuring out the quote function. Now don't regress like you just did with you love for all things "butt hurt".

See the difference in both content and quality?

Probably not.

Hi, K5/Igy! Any post has superior content and quality to your first post in the thread. That one's going to be tough for you to live down.

Jeffy Tull wrote:

K5 detector wrote:

Hi, K5/Igy! Still haven't learned to use the board's quote function I see. Well it's only been 3 years. Keep trying!

Butt hurt guy. I see you are still posting your nonsensical, repetitive, drivel.

Agip busted on MCD stock price.

You ramble on about quote function.

We've been here before.

the problem with the MCD price is that it shot up one one day in 2015 when Igy and I were discussing the stock.

Prices:

10/21/2015: $102.51

10/22/2015: $110.81

so it depends if you measure from the 21st or 22nd. But either way the stock is up.

agip wrote:

Jeffy Tull wrote:

Butt hurt guy. I see you are still posting your nonsensical, repetitive, drivel.

Agip busted on MCD stock price.

You ramble on about quote function.

We've been here before.

the problem with the MCD price is that it shot up one one day in 2015 when Igy and I were discussing the stock.

Prices:

10/21/2015: $102.51

10/22/2015: $110.81

so it depends if you measure from the 21st or 22nd. But either way the stock is up.

Uhhh, it shot up for a "bit" more than one day:

Is it a buy or a sell? Depends on your time horizon.

Joe,I enjoyed your Tums comment. Right now I am having a glass of Chardonnay and the wife will be grilling some tube steaks. Oh the life at the House of Igy.I hope you do well on MCD. I just find it interesting how investors ignore the fact that revenue was down and EPS growth was driven by stock buy backs financed though debt. Like NFLX and MSFT very odd metrics investors selectively choose to believe. Igy

Joe Beets wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Beets,

It's a Veggie Burger perfect for a vegan. Stop by the drive thru and don't forget the side order of heartburn.

Igy

Those who are short, or on the sidelines, like you are the ones with the heartburn. You should invest in Tums. I'm having steak and champagne.

Klondike5 wrote:

f*** you wrote:

Oh my god! The stock market fluctuates? F*ck! Everyone panic!

The point (well, other than the one on your head) is that yes the markets fluctuate, sometimes losing over 50% of their value, and it feels like one of those times may be approaching. Do you have an actual opinion on that? Or are you like Flagpole, who thinks losing 50% of your liquid assets accumulated over a lifetime and invested in the market is not a bad thing or no big deal?

Flagpole constantly spouted about the downfall before it happened

if he was truly so stupid as to leave his assets where they were after predicting the downfall then he deserved it and it's literally not a big deal at all.

If you think the market is going to take a huge dump in the coming months, move your money to a safer option, wait for the bottom to fall out and then buy back in when you think it'll start climbing again.

During the third quarter, the S&P 500 index recorded an increase in value of 3.3% (to 2168.27 from 2098.86). During the past 12 months, the S&P 500 index saw an increase in value of 12.9% (to 2168.27 from 1920.03). Where do industry analysts believe the price of the index will go from here?

Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a 9.8% increase in price over the next 12 months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index at the end of September. The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the mean target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On September 30, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 2381.71, which was 9.8% above the closing price of 2168.27.

coach d wrote:

agip wrote:

the problem with the MCD price is that it shot up one one day in 2015 when Igy and I were discussing the stock.

Prices:

10/21/2015: $102.51

10/22/2015: $110.81

so it depends if you measure from the 21st or 22nd. But either way the stock is up.

Uhhh, it shot up for a "bit" more than one day:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=MCD&style=technical&template=&p=WO&d=X&sd=07%2F01%2F2000&ed=10%2F22%2F2016&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

Is it a buy or a sell? Depends on your time horizon.

the point I was trying to make was to settle a debate on how much MCD has gone up in a year. If you measure from the 21st, it was up 13%. If you measure from the 22nd it's only 3%. Circa.

Someone challenged my math so I was explaining we were both right.

Butters,Unfortunately, Wall Street has a habit of marking up the index 10% and usually justifies it with a rising multiple (investors paying more for a unit of earnings). In 2000 and 2007 we saw similar projections. How did that work out? Too bad original thinking results in a shorter career on Wall Street. Group think. Bear = Bad, Bull = Good.Igy

Butters. wrote:

During the third quarter, the S&P 500 index recorded an increase in value of 3.3% (to 2168.27 from 2098.86). During the past 12 months, the S&P 500 index saw an increase in value of 12.9% (to 2168.27 from 1920.03). Where do industry analysts believe the price of the index will go from here?

Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a 9.8% increase in price over the next 12 months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index at the end of September. The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the mean target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On September 30, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 2381.71, which was 9.8% above the closing price of 2168.27.

Butters,Hey Butters it looks like Wall Street is back to the target is set back in March of 2015 when I first posted here.http://247wallst.com/investing/2015/03/25/10-reasons-bullish-market-strategist-sees-sp-500-at-2350-this-year/It might be beneficial to use what God gave you--a brain--rather just consuming what is fed to you. The information is out there if you wish to look, and the facts are far less Bullish than you and most here imagine.Wish you well though.Igy

Butters. wrote:

During the third quarter, the S&P 500 index recorded an increase in value of 3.3% (to 2168.27 from 2098.86). During the past 12 months, the S&P 500 index saw an increase in value of 12.9% (to 2168.27 from 1920.03). Where do industry analysts believe the price of the index will go from here?

Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a 9.8% increase in price over the next 12 months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index at the end of September. The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the mean target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On September 30, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 2381.71, which was 9.8% above the closing price of 2168.27.

Wall Street prediction record from Mish Shedlock:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/full-of-bull-wall-street-analysts.html

Igy

Actually I would suggest that Butters is the one here presenting some original thinking. Igy is just following the current Wall Street mantra that the end is near. But what would you expect from him. He knows who puts the bread in his table.

agip wrote:

the problem with the MCD price is that it shot up one one day in 2015 when Igy and I were discussing the stock.

Prices:

10/21/2015: $102.51

10/22/2015: $110.81

so it depends if you measure from the 21st or 22nd. But either way the stock is up.

What a sad little liar you are agip.

Here is what you said on page 359 dated 10/22/15 (NOT 10/21)

MCD US sales were positive. While they were down 3% last year.

Clearly investors believe that this could be the start of a turnaround after a few years of decline. So they buy the stock now.

YES, BUY THE STOCK NOW ON 10/22/15

Then one year later you claim a 12 percent return when in fact it was 3 percent.

So what? You were basing your 10/22/15 prediction on the price from one day earlier, ignoring the one day run up that had taken place?

U.S. stock futures on Monday pointed to a higher open, getting a lift from AT&T's planned buyout of Time Warner and additional deal news.

Investors are waiting for fresh readings on manufacturing activity and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, as well as to react to earnings from wireless carrier T-Mobile US Inc.(TMUS) , apparel company VF Corp.(VFC) and Huggies diapers producer Kimberly-Clark Corp.(KMB)

Several Federal Reserve officials are also due to speak.

S&P 500 futures gained 9.30 points, or 0.4%, to 2,144, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 79 points, or 0.4%, to 18,145. Nasdaq-100 futures tacked on 29 points, or 0.6%, to 4,872.25.

Last week, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% for the week, ending a two-week losing streak and finishing 2.2% below its mid-August record close.

"Despite strong earnings reports, U.S. indices increasingly look like they are coming under distribution, particularly the SPX 500, which appears to be completing a head and shoulders top," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, in a note. A head and shoulders pattern is a bearish chart formation.

"Part of the headwinds for stocks may be coming from continued gains by the USD, although the dollar index is starting to look exhausted," Cieszynski added.

“Old ways of valuing stocks are outdated. A technological revolution has created opportunities for continued low inflation, expanding profits and rising productivity. Thanks to these factors, the United States may be able to enjoy an extended period of expanding stock prices. Jumping out now would leave you poorer than you might become if you have some faith.”

Los Angeles Times, May 11, 1999

The MCD stock price posts hit home for me. I bought McDonalds at about $13 in 2002. When it got to around $45 a few years later, I didn't think it could get better and sold. sigh....

Now I only had a small position so I didn't miss out on a yacht or retirement.

Gold,

Here are the actual numbers from the MCD 3rd Quarter earnings (below). What does it mean? If not for the stock buyback the company would have reported EPS of $1.36 ($1.27 Billion / $934.8 million = $1.358). More importantly is the accumulating debt and the trading multiple (22.8 times last year's earnings) makes MCD less than optimal investment.

Net Income

2015 $1.31 Billion

2016 $1.27 Billion

EPS

2015 $1.40

2016 $1.50

Weighted Average shares outstanding-diluted

2015 934.8 million

2016 847.7 million

Igy

The point is, like May of 1999, investors believe "old ways of valuing stocks are outdated."

Igy