57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

L'Oncle wrote:

Timothy Foyle wrote:

L'Oncle is not really a troll.

L'Oncle = Giles Corey = K5 = nuname

And he's quite certain that it's all a grand conspiracy controlled by The J*ws!

You are sick. Tens of millions of Americans to be evicted under this Covid lock-down nonsense and this is your focus?

Good point, K5. Good to see you up and kicking. And throwing the bullsh!t.

Good job!

Timothy Foyle wrote:

L'Oncle wrote:

You are sick. Tens of millions of Americans to be evicted under this Covid lock-down nonsense and this is your focus?

Good point, K5. Good to see you up and kicking. And throwing the bullsh!t.

Good job!

Obsessed and sick. Care not a whit about the tens of millions being made homeless by this lock-down.

Reminder. “According to the CDCs own data (link provided), deaths began dropping precipitously months before the mask mandates began, and are well below seasonal flu death rates. An estimated 1.5 million die from highly infectious tuberculosis every year, yet we have never destroyed millions of lives & implemented tyrannical edicts in response to that. What gives? It seems this pandemic exists only on MSM . . . “

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm&hellip

;

07/25 Data

Trends all in place and they are very bad.

7 day average of daily deaths.

US: new cyclical high

world: new cyclical high

Brazil: new high

India: new high

FL: new high

TX: new high

CA: new high

AZ: On a plateau just shy of a new high

4 problem states: new high

4 problem states now compared to a week ago: 17% higher.

I'm watching carefully the rate of growth of the 7 day average in the four problem states. That rate of growth has been slowing...slowly. A few percent a day. Now it is 17%. Getting a negative sign into that stat would be a great sign.

When I read posts with L"Oncle and Fat Hurts arguing, they remind me of the two guys from Dumb and Dumber.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

agip wrote:

07/25 Data

Trends all in place and they are very bad.

7 day average of daily deaths.

US: new cyclical high

world: new cyclical high

Brazil: new high

India: new high

FL: new high

TX: new high

CA: new high

AZ: On a plateau just shy of a new high

4 problem states: new high

4 problem states now compared to a week ago: 17% higher.

I'm watching carefully the rate of growth of the 7 day average in the four problem states. That rate of growth has been slowing...slowly. A few percent a day. Now it is 17%. Getting a negative sign into that stat would be a great sign.

agip,

here is the whole world, US, Brazil and India:

For the whole world, cases have been skyrocketing, and fatalities continue to grow. I expect the global outbreak to persist for months to come, ending only when Africa and southeast Asia get things under control. The US may have reached a second peak in new cases; fingers crossed this means fatalities will peak in 2 to 4 weeks. India is a basket case, with cases and fatalities growing out of control. Brazil may have (?) reached a peak?

There are a number of other countries with important, worrisome trends; off the top of my head: Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, several African countries (chiefly South Africa).

Here are the four states you mentioned:

All four seem to have reached peaks for new cases; fingers crossed this will happen for fatalities in the next 1 to 3 weeks.

And here is a bonus graph, for Georgia, which has been quietly sneaking up in the rankings:

Fatalities are at an all-time high. Again, new cases look to have peaked. Maybe Georgia (and the US as a whole) will be in an improving trend in the next 2 to 4 weeks, and then back largely under control in 2 to 3 months.

love your charts - great stuff.

7/26 Data

Got a bit of a break yesterday - the strong surge upwards was weaker than it has been the last few days. Everything is still very bad and at very high levels, but the curve up wasn't as vertical as it has been.

The 4 problem states have spent 3 days growing at 17% week over week...I'd really like to see that number fall to negative numbers.

New cyclical highs for the US and India

New all time highs for CA, TX and the 4 problem states.

Probably just bad Sunday reporting I suspect.

brazen2 wrote:

7-day average for positivity for reported cases down to 14.3% from high of 15.7% one week ago

Last 5 days the number of current hospitalizations have been steady after a 4x increase in a 6 week period

Cases have plateaued for last 10 days outside 14-day window (Jul02-Jul11) - short term forecast looks like trend will continue

Deaths continue to follow previous increased cases then hospitalizations trends

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Positivity unchanged over the weekend.

Current hospitalizations continue to slowly drop

Ventilator usage decreasing.

Critical care bed usage decreasing

Cases have plateaued for last 12 days outside 14-day window (Jul02-Jul13) - short term forecast looks like trend will continue

Follow: Cases-->Hospitalizations-->Death

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Timothy Foyle wrote:

[

Now, if only you could get those G. D. J*ws out of the way! Amiright?

What is your obsession with Jews?

You need to be banned

interested reader wrote:

And here is a bonus graph, for Georgia, which has been quietly sneaking up in the rankings:

https://ibb.co/BsGgCts

Fatalities are at an all-time high. Again, new cases look to have peaked. Maybe Georgia (and the US as a whole) will be in an improving trend in the next 2 to 4 weeks, and then back largely under control in 2 to 3 months.

Unfortunately, reporting data like this doesn't present as accurate a picture as the GADPH data presentations. Fatalities are not at an all-time high (yet). The 7-day average of reported deaths presented in this graph makes it look this way. However, on the three recent days with reported deaths near 80, as much as a third of those deaths occurred 14 days prior to the day they were reported. Presenting data that happened 2+ weeks ago as happening today gives a distorted view of the trend.

The same is true for daily reported cases. Even presenting them in a 7-day average is not accurate when a large number actually fall outside that 7-day time frame. There are some issues, as I've stated before, with the GADPH case reporting as well.

Now it does have some value when comparing between subsets reporting data the same way, but that's another discussion.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

If you want to nerd out around it. Here is Florida with when deaths are added and you can see the lag:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19yfJiID58DhtDOxEaEYKagIf8UoK7yxyFTQZb4y0jwo/edit#gid=0

The upshot isn't anything too wild: We'll have the highest reported deaths day about 7-10 days after the actual peak of the crisis as far as deaths. Many would argue that we should go some 10 days before that day for when the spread was at its highest --> cases to hospitalizations to deaths. Either way, the worse days for Florida may be this week or next week judging by caseload and the positive %

11 deaths reported today

Rt at 0.99

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

brazen2 wrote:

11 deaths reported today

Rt at 0.99

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

^This is obviously not working.

Over 150,000 Americans have died of COVID-19.

Testing is useless in stopping the spread.

The only tool we have that really works is a lockdown.

It's time to lock down again and do it right this time.

Fat hurts wrote:

brazen2 wrote:

11 deaths reported today

Rt at 0.99

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

^This is obviously not working.

Over 150,000 Americans have died of COVID-19.

Testing is useless in stopping the spread.

The only tool we have that really works is a lockdown.

It's time to lock down again and do it right this time.

Lest you forget. Lockdowns were tried early on and look where we are now.

Zero reasons to not let the kids go to school

186 deaths reported overnight for Florida ~ a new record. This is probably going to be the second worst week for Florida ~ fatalities-wise . They're at least "down" to 9,000 positives a day, which in 2-3 weeks means probably more like the 5-700 deaths a week we were seeing a couple weeks ago. The upcoming strings of Tuesday-Friday are going to be bleak, though.