AtlasIntel- was the most accurate presidential poll for the 2020 presidential election. They just dropped their 2024 presidential poll.
This is very bad news if you're a Hyena-nette.
Trump: 50.7% (+3.6)
Harris: 47.3%
West: 0.2%
Stein: 0.4%
Oliver: 0.1%
Undecided: 1.1%
1,775 Likely Voter | ±2 p.p | 09/11/2024 - 09/12/2024 |
Dem 32.4, Rep 33.5, Ind 34.1%
From On Point Politics:
I decided to create an "A-PLUS" Version of my National Average, which only includes my A Graded Pollsters! That includes these pollsters with their 2020 Margins:
@Rasmussen_Poll
- Rasmussen Reports (Biden+5.25)
@Peoples_Pundit
- Big Data Poll (Biden+4.1)
@EmersonCollege
- Emerson (Biden+5)
@atlas_intel
- AtlasIntel (Biden+4.7)
When we include these four polls into an A Graded version of my average, weighing to an R+1, this is the result:
Trump: 49.38% (+2.86)
Harris: 46.52%
Kennedy: 0.11%
West: 0.67%
Stein: 0.61%
Undecideds
When I use these pollsters and include them in average from October 2nd to November of 2020, as well as weighing them to the 2016 Electorate, we get:
Biden: 51.0% (+5.90)
Trump: 45.1%
Undecided: 4.0%
This is more accurate than both the RCP and 538 Average in 2020, which had Biden winning by +7.2 and +8.4 respectively:
So, if we do the math:
2020 Average - Biden+5.9
2024 Average - Trump+2.9
Shift = R+9
Biden+4.5 -----> Trump+4.5 (Landslide In Electoral College)
Electoral College Based On Trump+4.5 Popular Vote
Trump- 319 EV
Harris- 219 EV
My 296 EV prediction for Trump is looking rather pedestrian.
Mean tweets 2024!