This thread was deleted by a volunteer moderator. I certainly don't want a thread this big deleted so I've restored. THat being said, this thread has served it's purpose. I've closed it to new posts.
We have a new 2024 vaccine thread here. New people don't need to try to wade through 20,000 posts to figure out what is going on.
So all the Covid deaths in highly vaxxed nations occurred pre vaccine yet this did not take place in the lowly vaxxed nations!
These people refuse to admit the obvious. The jab did not and does not work. And it's dangerous
We're only talking about Peru.
Peru hit 50% vaccinated for the 60-69 age group around the beginning of July 2021.
As of July 1, 2021 a cumulative total of 192687 covid deaths had been reported of a total of 222161 through Dec 1, 2023. Relatively speaking the Delta wave in the second half of 2021 was a non-event in Peru and the Omicron death toll was much lighter than earlier waves. (ref Worldometer)
So about 87% of Peru's covid deaths occurred prior to broad vaccination of the most vulnerable part of their population. For comparison the US has had about 47% of its total covid deaths subsequent to July 2021, largely during the Delta and Omicron waves which, as has repeatedly been shown, disproportionately affected the unvaccinated subset of the population.
Peru is an interesting case because they had a very high covid death toll, but the overwhelming majority of it happened prior to widespread vaccination.
This post will, of course, not stop you from repeating your BS narrative, but it does mark the point after which it is clear that you are knowingly an agent of disinformation.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
COVID-19, though, continues to cause the most hospitalizations and deaths among respiratory illnesses — about 15,000 hospitalizations and about 1,000 deaths every week, said Dr. Mandy Cohen, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Cult is losing members every week. Sorry, Orange Man.
Percentage of the Covid hospitalized and dead who have taken at least 1 injection of Covid "vaccine" ?
{crickets}
Again, you could conceivably make a point based on available evidence, but I don’t think this question does any valuable work for you.
Imagine a scenario in which 95% of the population has had at least 1 injection.
You ask your question. The answer might be “85% of the hospitalized and dead have taken at least 1 injection.” Nearly all of the ill-informed subset of anti-vaxxers would begin crowing: Look! Such a high percentage!
But those hypothetical numbers would likely indicate substantial efficacy from the vaccine in reducing hospitalization and death.
Similarly, you might have a dataset in which the vast majority of the vaccinated were high-risk population and the vast majority of the unvaccinated were low-risk (yeah, you can make a number of points about that, but as ever, there are good ones and bad ones to make, and that’s another matter, albeit a related one). If that’s the case, a brief Q & A on the basis of your question would yield misleading results.
So I generally find myself incredibly skeptical when someone’s method is: Just answer this simple question I’ve posed. You can’t answer it? Then I must be right!
Eh, maybe and maybe not.
So better kinds of questions might be: In groups X, Y, and Z (perhaps with different sets of risk factors), what are the rates of hospitalizations and deaths overall? What are they for vaxxed? What are they for unvaxxed?
If you have very clear, nicely vetted and authoritative data that follows an analysis in that vein (it doesn’t necessarily have to be exactly my question), then that would be great to see, please. That strikes me as a really good-faith, substantive contribution to the discussion (and pardon me if you’ve offered this before; I haven’t read much of the thread, so you can just refer me to post #s if this is already well-trodden ground).
So all the Covid deaths in highly vaxxed nations occurred pre vaccine yet this did not take place in the lowly vaxxed nations!
These people refuse to admit the obvious. The jab did not and does not work. And it's dangerous
Well, as you may even have noted somewhere on the boards, some of us are a great deal less intelligent and less informed than you are. So perhaps my ideological blindness, relatively low intelligence, and character flaws prevent me from recognizing the obviousness of the information. And I may be willing to admit it as soon as my feeble brain comprehends what is obvious.
So if you could please walk me through an answer to post 14698, point-by-point in a way that even a foolish layperson like me might understand, I’d be indebted to you. I know you care almost solely about the facts of the matter, so I expect that you’re rely on the strongest data available from the myriad types of experts in these matters.
Percentage of the Covid hospitalized and dead who have taken at least 1 injection of Covid "vaccine" ?
{crickets}
Again, you could conceivably make a point based on available evidence, but I don’t think this question does any valuable work for you.
Imagine a scenario in which 95% of the population has had at least 1 injection.
You ask your question. The answer might be “85% of the hospitalized and dead have taken at least 1 injection.” Nearly all of the ill-informed subset of anti-vaxxers would begin crowing: Look! Such a high percentage!
But those hypothetical numbers would likely indicate substantial efficacy from the vaccine in reducing hospitalization and death.
Similarly, you might have a dataset in which the vast majority of the vaccinated were high-risk population and the vast majority of the unvaccinated were low-risk (yeah, you can make a number of points about that, but as ever, there are good ones and bad ones to make, and that’s another matter, albeit a related one). If that’s the case, a brief Q & A on the basis of your question would yield misleading results.
So I generally find myself incredibly skeptical when someone’s method is: Just answer this simple question I’ve posed. You can’t answer it? Then I must be right!
Eh, maybe and maybe not.
So better kinds of questions might be: In groups X, Y, and Z (perhaps with different sets of risk factors), what are the rates of hospitalizations and deaths overall? What are they for vaxxed? What are they for unvaxxed?
If you have very clear, nicely vetted and authoritative data that follows an analysis in that vein (it doesn’t necessarily have to be exactly my question), then that would be great to see, please. That strikes me as a really good-faith, substantive contribution to the discussion (and pardon me if you’ve offered this before; I haven’t read much of the thread, so you can just refer me to post #s if this is already well-trodden ground).
So all the Covid deaths in highly vaxxed nations occurred pre vaccine yet this did not take place in the lowly vaxxed nations!
These people refuse to admit the obvious. The jab did not and does not work. And it's dangerous
Well, as you may even have noted somewhere on the boards, some of us are a great deal less intelligent and less informed than you are. So perhaps my ideological blindness, relatively low intelligence, and character flaws prevent me from recognizing the obviousness of the information. And I may be willing to admit it as soon as my feeble brain comprehends what is obvious.
So if you could please walk me through an answer to post 14698, point-by-point in a way that even a foolish layperson like me might understand, I’d be indebted to you. I know you care almost solely about the facts of the matter, so I expect that you’re rely on the strongest data available from the myriad types of experts in these matters.
Highly vaxxed nations suffered far fewer Covid deaths than lowly vaxxed nations. Per establishment numbers as found in wikipedia (which I have posted more than once in previous comments).
Quite simple. Not sure why you find this difficult to follow. Even given your self proclaimed status of being "a great deal less intelligent and less informed" than I am
Highly vaxxed nations suffered far fewer Covid deaths than lowly vaxxed nations. Per establishment numbers as found in wikipedia (which I have posted more than once in previous comments).
Quite simple. Not sure why you find this difficult to follow. Even given your self proclaimed status of being "a great deal less intelligent and less informed" than I am
The point I asked DanM was basically that his question neglected necessary context. A simple answer to the simple question could yield misleading info.
Similarly, I asked related questions in the post I asked you to answer.
It’s incomplete to say that Country A is more vaccinated but has higher hospitalization & death rates than Country B. Even if you include more countries, you don’t necessarily reduce the confounding variables.
So I asked you to recognize and rule out the kinds of features that would render the data misleading.
It’s not as though you said, “Hey, the UK is more vaccinated than Papua New Guinea but has more hospitalizations and deaths!” But that’s an extreme example of the kind of apples and oranges comparison I’ve asked you to rule out.
So if you can walk me through that point by point in a way that even my feeble brain can process, I’d appreciate it, please.
If you’ve already done so, please refer me to post #s. Thanks.
Highly vaxxed nations suffered far fewer Covid deaths than lowly vaxxed nations. Per establishment numbers as found in wikipedia (which I have posted more than once in previous comments).
Quite simple. Not sure why you find this difficult to follow. Even given your self proclaimed status of being "a great deal less intelligent and less informed" than I am
The point I asked DanM was basically that his question neglected necessary context. A simple answer to the simple question could yield misleading info.
Similarly, I asked related questions in the post I asked you to answer.
It’s incomplete to say that Country A is more vaccinated but has higher hospitalization & death rates than Country B. Even if you include more countries, you don’t necessarily reduce the confounding variables.
So I asked you to recognize and rule out the kinds of features that would render the data misleading.
It’s not as though you said, “Hey, the UK is more vaccinated than Papua New Guinea but has more hospitalizations and deaths!” But that’s an extreme example of the kind of apples and oranges comparison I’ve asked you to rule out.
So if you can walk me through that point by point in a way that even my feeble brain can process, I’d appreciate it, please.
If you’ve already done so, please refer me to post #s. Thanks.
The "base rate fallacy" question can only be answered when public health authorities provide reliable data about vax status for people with poor health outcomes related to Covid. The Covid States Project (about as close to reliable as I have seen) had the US population at 25% unvaccinated (ZERO doses) as of January, 2023.
The CDC Director says the data is unavailable, leaving a chasm that can be filled with lies and BS.
"Cohen said during the public health emergency she was able to look at real-time data and deploy resources where needed to educate communities on what they needed to do to keep themselves safe from the virus. Once that emergency expired, the data was no longer available, leaving her to rely on surveys to even estimate things like the number of vaccinated."
The point I asked DanM was basically that his question neglected necessary context. A simple answer to the simple question could yield misleading info.
Similarly, I asked related questions in the post I asked you to answer.
It’s incomplete to say that Country A is more vaccinated but has higher hospitalization & death rates than Country B. Even if you include more countries, you don’t necessarily reduce the confounding variables.
So I asked you to recognize and rule out the kinds of features that would render the data misleading.
It’s not as though you said, “Hey, the UK is more vaccinated than Papua New Guinea but has more hospitalizations and deaths!” But that’s an extreme example of the kind of apples and oranges comparison I’ve asked you to rule out.
So if you can walk me through that point by point in a way that even my feeble brain can process, I’d appreciate it, please.
If you’ve already done so, please refer me to post #s. Thanks.
The "base rate fallacy" question can only be answered when public health authorities provide reliable data about vax status for people with poor health outcomes related to Covid. The Covid States Project (about as close to reliable as I have seen) had the US population at 25% unvaccinated (ZERO doses) as of January, 2023.
The CDC Director says the data is unavailable, leaving a chasm that can be filled with lies and BS.
"Cohen said during the public health emergency she was able to look at real-time data and deploy resources where needed to educate communities on what they needed to do to keep themselves safe from the virus. Once that emergency expired, the data was no longer available, leaving her to rely on surveys to even estimate things like the number of vaccinated."
OK. That’s the key answer. Perhaps you’ve also had similar points that are reasonable points. I hope you understand my skepticism regarding the question I replied to, though. You revile “lies and BS.” I’d hope you’d show at least an iota of distaste for overly simple, misleading questions.
I’d assume that you might believe that the data should be available but is possibly being withheld because it doesn’t support the official narrative. That’s my assumption, so pardon me if it misrepresents your point. If that’s the case, you may also have additional information and a series of contextual clues that lead you to infer that. It would necessarily, however, be an inference, and my experience in reading on these matters over time hasn’t given me unrelenting faith in the CDC, but far and away the most common traits I’ve seen from criticism of the CDC are oversimplification and similar attempts to steal lots of bases.
If you say that currently unavailable data is the only way to move beyond the “base rate fallacy,” then I continue to find your argument unconvincing but with that judgment perhaps subject to revision.
So I know you use the quotation marks in “base rate fallacy.” Is this because you’re just referring to a term as a term, or do the quotation marks indicate that you are skeptically calling the very term itself into question?
I ask that because it seems as though what you said is, in fact, a fallacy, one that could be corrected only if unavailable data were made available. And just as you’re skeptical of organizations releasing what you consider “BS,” I’m skeptical of people who rely on fallacies and/or those who act as though analysis based on wildly insufficient and/or misleading information (gaps in data, for instance) are rock solid because they think they’ve reasonably inferred what the missing data would suggest (especially if the inference isn’t widely acknowledged as reasonable even among knowledgeable people without a professional stake in whether it is or not). But perhaps I’ve misread some arguments there, and I may be in need of correction.
If you have other analyses that are more self-evidently thoughtful and helpful (like this one) rather than less helpful (the question I replied to), I’d appreciate it. Again, you may have posted such things.
Or to put it another way: When you scoffed at *crickets*, that might not have been opponents lacking an ability to answer you; it might have just been a sign that they were wildly unimpressed, not sharing your assumptions about the base rate fallacy. Or, even more likely, a lot of the knowledgeable, sharp people who could provide some of the best answers on either side aren’t even bothering to look in on this thread now (speculation on my part, but not wild speculation, I believe).
The White House worked with YouTube in 2021 to target alleged COVID-19 and vaccination misinformation, the House Judiciary Committee alleged, citing documents.
So all the Covid deaths in highly vaxxed nations occurred pre vaccine yet this did not take place in the lowly vaxxed nations!
These people refuse to admit the obvious. The jab did not and does not work. And it's dangerous
We're only talking about Peru.
Peru hit 50% vaccinated for the 60-69 age group around the beginning of July 2021.
As of July 1, 2021 a cumulative total of 192687 covid deaths had been reported of a total of 222161 through Dec 1, 2023. Relatively speaking the Delta wave in the second half of 2021 was a non-event in Peru and the Omicron death toll was much lighter than earlier waves. (ref Worldometer)
So about 87% of Peru's covid deaths occurred prior to broad vaccination of the most vulnerable part of their population. For comparison the US has had about 47% of its total covid deaths subsequent to July 2021, largely during the Delta and Omicron waves which, as has repeatedly been shown, disproportionately affected the unvaccinated subset of the population.
Peru is an interesting case because they had a very high covid death toll, but the overwhelming majority of it happened prior to widespread vaccination.
This post will, of course, not stop you from repeating your BS narrative, but it does mark the point after which it is clear that you are knowingly an agent of disinformation.
He has no narrative it’s just anecdote, lie, anecdote, misread data, etc.
They will never present a cohesive narrative or even more than a single data point.
I do appreciate your responses, but nothing will convince them to engage in an adult manner.
Well, as you may even have noted somewhere on the boards, some of us are a great deal less intelligent and less informed than you are. So perhaps my ideological blindness, relatively low intelligence, and character flaws prevent me from recognizing the obviousness of the information. And I may be willing to admit it as soon as my feeble brain comprehends what is obvious.
So if you could please walk me through an answer to post 14698, point-by-point in a way that even a foolish layperson like me might understand, I’d be indebted to you. I know you care almost solely about the facts of the matter, so I expect that you’re rely on the strongest data available from the myriad types of experts in these matters.
Highly vaxxed nations suffered far fewer Covid deaths than lowly vaxxed nations. Per establishment numbers as found in wikipedia (which I have posted more than once in previous comments).
Quite simple. Not sure why you find this difficult to follow. Even given your self proclaimed status of being "a great deal less intelligent and less informed" than I am
Yes highly vaxxed nations did suffer few COVID deaths. Glad we agree finally. Nice to see you walk back your previous lies/misinterpretations.
I feel sorry for the word "Orwellian". Antivaxxers and right wingers have used and abused that word so much it is the first documented inanimate thing to have suffered from trauma. And it's all just so that they can feel smart, edgy, and cool. Such selfish people, shame on you antivaxxers!
Highly vaxxed nations suffered far fewer Covid deaths than lowly vaxxed nations. Per establishment numbers as found in wikipedia (which I have posted more than once in previous comments).
Quite simple. Not sure why you find this difficult to follow. Even given your self proclaimed status of being "a great deal less intelligent and less informed" than I am
The point I asked DanM was basically that his question neglected necessary context. A simple answer to the simple question could yield misleading info.
Similarly, I asked related questions in the post I asked you to answer.
It’s incomplete to say that Country A is more vaccinated but has higher hospitalization & death rates than Country B. Even if you include more countries, you don’t necessarily reduce the confounding variables.
So I asked you to recognize and rule out the kinds of features that would render the data misleading.
It’s not as though you said, “Hey, the UK is more vaccinated than Papua New Guinea but has more hospitalizations and deaths!” But that’s an extreme example of the kind of apples and oranges comparison I’ve asked you to rule out.
So if you can walk me through that point by point in a way that even my feeble brain can process, I’d appreciate it, please.
If you’ve already done so, please refer me to post #s. Thanks.
This article contains the current number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths per population by country. It also has cumulative death totals by country. For these numbers over time see the tables, graphs, and maps at COVID-19 pandemi...
You are just going to ask others to assume the correlation is not undermined by confounding variables instead of clearly and methodically walking us through it.
You are just going to ask others to assume the correlation is not undermined by confounding variables instead of clearly and methodically walking us through it.
The claim is the vaccine is effective.
Yet the more vaxxed the nation, the more Covid deaths.
Don't know what more you need me to walk you through. You seem to think the correlation is meaningless if you say the term "confounding variables"
You are just going to ask others to assume the correlation is not undermined by confounding variables instead of clearly and methodically walking us through it.
The claim is the vaccine is effective.
Yet the more vaxxed the nation, the more Covid deaths.
Don't know what more you need me to walk you through. You seem to think the correlation is meaningless if you say the term "confounding variables"
Mention Africa and the vaxxer argument crumbles into dust. Low vax uptake, low Covid death rate, but they will say that is because most African countries have a young median age.
If Covid isn't a threat to the young, they why does the CDC recommend the Covid vax for children as young as 6 months ?
Vaxxer "logic" quickly reveals itself to actually be illogic.
Yet the more vaxxed the nation, the more Covid deaths.
Don't know what more you need me to walk you through. You seem to think the correlation is meaningless if you say the term "confounding variables"
Mention Africa and the vaxxer argument crumbles into dust. Low vax uptake, low Covid death rate, but they will say that is because most African countries have a young median age.
If Covid isn't a threat to the young, they why does the CDC recommend the Covid vax for children as young as 6 months ?
Vaxxer "logic" quickly reveals itself to actually be illogic.
on average, people who participate in sports where helmets are required are much more likely to sustain confessions than in sports in which no helmets are required. The positive correlation between helmet wearing and concussions is robust.
Therefore, helmet wearing does not reduce the likelihood of an athlete sustaining a concussion.
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