Happy with some circumstantial evidence, which is why I included a sub section for "additional comments" in my structure above. That could indeed include "22degrees reported but expert panel said 29" etc etc and anything else which (without hyperbole) was credible.
cleans wrote:
Great idea BTW Larkimm, it would be good to create a potted list of why one or two of us have suspicions about Paula (and not, say, Jo Pavey).
There are no reports of Jo Pavey having any suspiscious blood test off scores. Jo Pavey has also released her blood test off scores and all are between ~50 and ~80 and no where near any of the thresholds for suspicion of blood manipulation (see bottom graph):.
http://sportsscientists.com/2015/09/paula-radcliffe-off-scores-and-transparency/PR in contrast has at least 3 off scores close to the 1 in 100 threshold limit for suspicion of blood manipulation even when corrected for altitude training (they would be close to the 1 in 1000 threshold when not corrected for altitude). The scores are around the 110 mark (see same graph in the above link). These scores were leaked not released and PR has since flat out refused to give her detailed off score profile which may help explain the context of these 3 very high off scores. Note that out of 500 blood tests from British athletes PR's showed the highest off score. rjm33 has also repeatedly gone into the details of the specific parameters, such as Hb, of PR's blood test results and has explained why they indicate suspicion of blood manipulation.
It may be understandable to be suspicious of everyone competing at the top level but there a lot of differences between PR and Jo Pavey on this issue. It is not really fair to compare the two cases.
preciously jaded wrote:
cleans wrote:Great idea BTW Larkimm, it would be good to create a potted list of why one or two of us have suspicions about Paula (and not, say, Jo Pavey).
There are no reports of Jo Pavey having any suspiscious blood test off scores. Jo Pavey has also released her blood test off scores and all are between ~50 and ~80 and no where near any of the thresholds for suspicion of blood manipulation (see bottom graph):.
http://sportsscientists.com/2015/09/paula-radcliffe-off-scores-and-transparency/PR in contrast has at least 3 off scores close to the 1 in 100 threshold limit for suspicion of blood manipulation even when corrected for altitude training (they would be close to the 1 in 1000 threshold when not corrected for altitude). The scores are around the 110 mark (see same graph in the above link). These scores were leaked not released and PR has since flat out refused to give her detailed off score profile which may help explain the context of these 3 very high off scores. Note that out of 500 blood tests from British athletes PR's showed the highest off score. rjm33 has also repeatedly gone into the details of the specific parameters, such as Hb, of PR's blood test results and has explained why they indicate suspicion of blood manipulation.
It may be understandable to be suspicious of everyone competing at the top level but there a lot of differences between PR and Jo Pavey on this issue. It is not really fair to compare the two cases.
On the issue of transparency, it's worth noting that Pavey refused to criticise Paula for not releasing her full details. Pavey did say that she advocated transparency, but also understood and respected the reasons why some did not want this.
larkimm wrote:
On the issue of transparency, it's worth noting that Pavey refused to criticise Paula for not releasing her full details. Pavey did say that she advocated transparency, but also understood and respected the reasons why some did not want this.
I was answering the question of why some readers were suspicious of PR but not suspicious of Joe Pavey.
If you hypothetically did want to argue for suspicion of Joe Pavey I suppose you could say that she has not released all of her blood profile data (only off scores) and that the data she has selectively released does not make her look "guilty" so she is only being only about as transparent as PR. Personally, I am not sure that this is reasonable but it is sort of an argument.
preciously jaded wrote:
larkimm wrote:On the issue of transparency, it's worth noting that Pavey refused to criticise Paula for not releasing her full details. Pavey did say that she advocated transparency, but also understood and respected the reasons why some did not want this.
I was answering the question of why some readers were suspicious of PR but not suspicious of Joe Pavey.
If you hypothetically did want to argue for suspicion of Joe Pavey I suppose you could say that she has not released all of her blood profile data (only off scores) and that the data she has selectively released does not make her look "guilty" so she is only being only about as transparent as PR. Personally, I am not sure that this is reasonable but it is sort of an argument.
It's as valid a proposition as arguing that Paula's lack of transparency equates to evidence of guilt. Irrespective of whether someone is a world record holder or "just" European champion, they should be held to the same standards.
I come back to my original point. There is a body of opinion here which is, it is argued, scientifically accurate and testable which demonstrates a high probability of Paula doping. I don't trust that opinion as no-one will go public with it beyond the anonymous posts here. When they do, I'll be as receptive as anyone to credible evidence that Paula doped.
For comparison Liliya Shobukhova had:
- Off-scores ranging from less than 40, up to 156
- Six off-scores above 120
In Helsinki 2005, four Russian women in the 1500m had off-scores ranging from 124 to 140.
Athletes self-selecting to have their blood data made public will have an obvious clean bias, as even athletes with legitimate clean altitude scores would hesitate to release scores including any above the sea-level threshold. For a more complete picture, it would be interesting to see a graph including profiles of other athletes that trained at altitude, and athletes that have been busted for EPO.
Does anyone know how to edit Wikipedia articles? And I don't mean "sure, you just hit the 'edit' button." I mean does anyone know how to deal with the politics and back-and-forth editing that goes on with controversial topics?
For Paula's wiki page needs an edit. The last sentences of the "Doping Allegations" section reads, "In late November 2015, the IAAF declared that the accusation were ‘based on the gross misinterpretation of incomplete data’. The UK Anti Doping Agency, having received Radcleffe's blood test history via the IAAF, stated that "Ukad has come to the same conclusion as the IAAF review that there is no case to answer" [121]"
I find it ridiculous that the statements of the IAAF and Ukad are given the last word. At a minimum, this needs to be countered with facts about their lack of credibility (and authority) on the topic.
But really, that Wiki page would be the ideal place for rjm33 to lay out his thesis in a clear and objective way.
Why does Paula Radcliffe sue the shit out of these who tried to railroad her here!!!
Hey larkimm, do you and rekrunner work for the same company?
Here is what I consider the strongest evidence for Jo Pavey being the real deal:
rjm33 wrote:
Here is more evidence for Jo Pavey...check out the photo.
http://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1029364/abeylegesse-confirmed-as-one-of-iaaf-28-as-pavey-stands-by-for-10000m-world-medal
Anybody can read the last 20 pages here and get a good summary of the major points. We are over 1,400 posts now!
Ross Tucker was already contacted about THIS exact Paula Radcliffe thread that you are reading now A LONG TIME AGO! The twitter posts contacting him and his replies are in this thread ...maybe 1,000 posts ago ...I have no idea where.
Ross Tucker in his reply agreed with me (Really?... Ross Tucker agreed with the insane conspiracy theorist wacko?) that the rapid and massive hemoglobin increase of either 2.8g/dl, or even more so if 3.6g/dl in 2 days, looked suspicious, and some more questions would need to be answered by Paula Radcliffe to explain them.
Those answers never came from Paula.. the woman who for her entire career championed the publishing of blood test results to catch cheaters and to prove which runners are clean...until it came to publishing her own blood test results to prove she is clean.
Unfortunately, that was the end of any comments by Ross Tucker about Paula. I also think if you read what Michael Ashenden says in his responses and comments to the press, that he has not ever given Paula or the findings of the various reports an "all clear and everything looks explained, and everything looks OK to me" type of statement... ever.
If ANYONE in a public way accuses Paula of not being clean .....she will send her LEGAL team after that person in a really BIG TIME way...which is why I am going to always be an unknown, lunatic, conspiracy theorist with weak mind disease on the LRC forum...
NONE of any of this thread will ever count in any official way. It is all INVALID. The statute of limitations has run out a long time ago. No blood test results from before the 2009 ABP will officially count, no matter how 'suspicious' they may look...from anyone...including Paula ..and including any doping Russians...or Kenyans..or runners from anywhere else in the world. And besides that, there was and is still no specific and direct test to prove an autologous blood transfusion was done (but the testers are very close now to having a direct test with cell membrane and cell cytoskeleton proteome analysis of RBCs).
Paula Radcliffe will always keep her world records, all her other records, all her medals, and all her money...and can continue to live in Monte Carlo...with Lord Seb Coe...and with Lamine Diack.
In this 1,400 post thread....Paula has only lost one thing...but it is something that is now very rare in our world...something that even tons of money can't buy...
Paula Radcliffe has lost her reputation for transparency, honesty, and integrity.
........................Go Jo Pavey!!!.........Go Steve Jones!!!.......
.................................THE REAL DEAL!!!...................
fred wrote:
Hey larkimm, do you and rekrunner work for the same company?
Lol, here I am posting to get the case against Paula made clearly and succinctly and ask you can do is make childish remarks about me being a paid stooge. With the info I've given on this thread it wouldn't be hard to work out who I am in the real world!
All I want is a public resolution of this issue. It seems to me that the only place this is being actively worked on is on this thread - that's not right.
larkimm wrote:
Lol, here I am posting to get the case against Paula made clearly and succinctly
So you can then post a long and circuitous denial that, if you hold your head at the right angle, squint, and look at the sun at 6:55 pm in Fiji, makes perfect sense.
larkimm wrote:
All I want is a public resolution of this issue. It seems to me that the only place this is being actively worked on is on this thread - that's not right.
For some reason you seemed to keep defending her anyway despite the IAAF wrapping it up in a way that should have pleased you long ago. The IAAF declared her clean and has moved on. You could have stopped a long time ago. That's a serious answer.
larkimm wrote:
[quote]fred wrote:
. With the info I've given on this thread it wouldn't be hard to work out who I am in the real world!
.
Steve Cram ?
larkimm wrote:
It's as valid a proposition as arguing that Paula's lack of transparency equates to evidence of guilt. Irrespective of whether someone is a world record holder or "just" European champion, they should be held to the same standards.
The are being held to the same standards.
The big difference is that PR has at least 3 off scores all close to the 1in 100 threshold for suspected blood manipulation even when corrected for altitude (2 just under 1 just over) Jo Pavey has no reported off scores (highest looks to be around 83 to 85 on the graph in Ross Tuckers report) anywhere close any threshold for suspected blood manipulation. Proportionally the off scores of PR that have been revealed are closer to Shubukova's high off scores than they are to Jo Pavey's off scores.
The reported blood test results of PR and Jo Pavey are quite different and that is why they are regarded differently by many of the readers.
cleans wrote:
cleans wrote:Great find. You couldn't make this stuff up. Or maybe you could.
Sorry, that was in response to the poster who found the following Guardian article on the knee injury.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/aug/09/athletics.sport?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487
What do all 4 of these husband/wife coach/athlete duos have in common ?
You guessed it!
Hey Fred....I thought since you like to read a lot...that you might like a rambling and incoherent conspiracy theory story...I hope that you will find it entertaining...
rjm33 wrote:
Here is my old post on the history of blood doping.
rjm33 wrote:Nobody has claimed Vilamoura was cool. We all agree it was 22-23C(71.6-73.4F) at the start, and rising during the race of one hour and seven minutes length by some unknown amount. It is the dehydration explanation plausibility that is open to question and doubt...but that explanation has recently been changed by Paula to LAB ERROR...try to keep up...
How about some history:
1972-B.Ekblum,et al. Response to Exercise after Blood Loss and Reinfusion.Journal of Applied Physiology.1972 Aug;33(2):175-80. publishes about hemoglobin changes and exercise performance changes after blood transfusions. In the same year, Lasse Viren wins the 5k and 10k gold at the Olympics, and repeats both wins in the 1976 Olympics. There were suspicions of transfusions by the Finns, but we will never know for sure...
1976-Waldemar Cierpinski cheats to win gold medal for East Germany over my hero Frank Shorter, who I believe deserves two gold medals, which really shows how great Frank was...
1980-Cierpinski again wins marathon. Kaarlo Maaninka of Finland wins silver in 10k and bronze in 5k, and is found to have done blood transfusions.
1982-Francesco Conconi of Italy publishes journal articles about the anaerobic threshold, with variations on the CONCONI test being done to this day on runners and cyclists...
1984-Allberto Cova of Italy wins 10k Olympic gold...rumors of blood transfusions...,Marti Vainio of Finland wins silver in 10k,but is caught with anabolic steroid metenolone, which was possibly in his old stored blood which he transfused before the race, but forgot he was on metenolone when the blood was withdrawn for storage...not very smart doper, was he...!
Meanwhile, it is discovered that one third of the US Cycling team at the Olympics, which won 9 medals, were doing blood transfusions...
1985-blood transfusions are declared illegal and banned...but there is no test for detection..
1987-New England Journal of Medicine publishes trial of recombinant EPO called Epogen, made by the biotech firm Amgen. Amgen ironically goes on to be a major sponsor of the cycling Tour of California, where many of the riders are using its EPO product...
1988-Salvatore Antibo from Italy..wins Olympic silver in 10k..more rumors about him..Gelindo Bordin, a product of the Dr. Conconi Italian group wins the gold medal in the marathon, and also wins Boston in 1990.
1989-Epogen approved by FDA for use in US
1989-1990-EPO moves into cycling in a big way. Belgian cyclists dropping dead..crazy stuff..
1990-1991- track has 3 to 5 sub 13:10 5k perfomers and/or performances per year..
1993-14 men break 13:10 a total of 21 times!!! while the Chinese women go on a rampage with Wang Junxia 29:31.78 10k WR, 8:06.11 3k WR, that still stand to this day!
Meanwhile, the first Italian coaches, led by Dr. Gabriele Rosa, arrive in Kenya....
1993 -2000-rampant EPO use..no test for detection..records smashed, huge depth of fast times by many people in track and cycling. Cyclists like Pantani and Riis pushing their hematocrits up to dangerous levels of 60 or 70%!!.. Cycling finally institutes a hematocrit cutoff limit max hematocrit of 50% or you can't race...cyclists respond by basically all of them then having hematocrits of 48-49.5%, just a coincidence that they are all just below the limit...right?
A protege of the Italian Dr. Conconi, mentioned previously, went on to become much more famous..his name was Dr. Michele Ferrari, and he was the doctor to the stars of pro cycling, most of all, he was doctor to Lance Armstrong, who is the prototype for a pharmaceutical experiment gone mad disguised as an athlete..They did everything...EPO,transfusions, the anabolic steroid testosterone, Human Growth Hormone, and probably other things we don't even know about. What a name! You can't make this stuff up...the mad genius Dr. Ferrari really did turn his riders into Ferraris, with extra horsepower!!!..., He also did a great job making sure that 1) he kept Lance alive and didn't kill him. and 2) that he somehow passed his drug tests. It was probably Ferrari that pioneered taking EPO by iv instead of subcutaneous injection, so that the EPO could be cleared faster, and the window for a positive epo test was then very small. A very smart guy who is presently in trouble with tax authorities for hiding large amounts of money in secret bank accounts, and he is also banned for life from cycling...
2000-first urine tests for epo appear around this time, not sure when, test improved by around 2005..The new test for EPO leads athletes back to the old method of blood transfusions, to avoid detection...
2004-Italian Stefano Baldini wins gold medal in marathon(Hmmm). American Tyler Hamilton is caught doing homologous blood tranfusion of someone else's blood at Tour of Italy( I think but not sure where,maybe Spain?) and at the Olympics, where he won gold medal. B test at Olympics had problems, kept medal on a technicality..but finally returned the medal in 2011. His lawyers used the famous "Tyler is a human chimera with a vanishing twin" defense to explain why he had blood from two different people in his bloodstream.. which wins the comedy prize for funniest doping excuse ever!!!
2008-CERA (Continuous Erythropoietin Receptor Activator) , a new longer acting agent, with a much longer half-life 20x longer than epo, is appoved for use in Jan,2008 under the name Mircera. Rashid Ramzi tests positive for CERA at the 2008 Olympics, and loses his gold medal...
2009-2015-development of EPO mimetic peptides such as peginesatide and CNTO530 and development of orally active Hypoxia Inducible Factor(HIF) stabilizers. You can just take a pill which works like EPO. The Company Fibrinogen has compounds FG2216,FG4592, and FG4497, which stabilize HIF by inhibiting the enzyme prolyl-hydroxylase, which is involved in the breakdown of HIF by the ubiquitin proteosome pathway. HIF is a transcription factor which increases the gene expression of about 200 different genes, including the gene for EPO. So increased levels of HIF2alpha signals cells in the kidney to increase transcription of Erythropoietin(EPO), which travels to the bone marrow and binds to progenitor cells, and increases erythropoiesis, the production of new red blood cells, which is how HIF stabilizers work.
Another compound involved with HIF is cobalt chloride, which also acts as a HIF stabilizer, is orally active, but is not recommended, as it is toxic to the gastrointestinal system,thyroid, heart, liver and kidney and may cause cancer. There is now a blood test to test for cobalt levels.
Other recent research is looking at inhalation of the noble gases Argon or Xenon as HIF activators of erythropoiesis. They have both been used by Russian athletes, and both compounds have recently been banned, although I don't know if there is a test for them yet...The cheaters are always finding new ways to cheat and the testers are always trying to find new ways to test....
For further reading..check out: Simon Beuck,et al. Hypoxia-inducible factor stabilizers and other small-molecule erythropoiesis stimulating agents in current and preventive doping analysis. Drug Testing and Analysis 2012 Nov;4(11):830-45., from their special issue on Sports Drug Testing for Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agents and Autologous Blood Transfusion... many interesting articles in this issue....
So that brings us to today, Dec 2015. Dr.Gabriele Rosa from 1993 in Kenya now has a son Dr. Frederico Rosa, who still works with top Kenyan runners today in Kenya, And Claudio Berardelli(sp.?) ... and Rita Jeptoo, and other Kenyans......
And we forgot Turkey(Altepkin in 2012 Olympic 1500m gold-gone now) and all the Russians, and all their positives ,and all the destroyed samples, and the leaked 12 year database of blood tests that nobody can see, and Paula's tests that nobody can see...and Dr. Saugy turning up over and over, from Lance to Paula(her"blood test expert") to destroyed Russian samples .... and Seppelt's documentary, which Lord Seb Coe says he hasn't seen!!!....to the 26 missed doping tests by the Italians (just an administrative error I have heard!...) to IAAF corruption, bribes at IAAF and in Kenya, head of anti-doping at IAAF arrested, and head of IAAF arrested, and maybe covered up tests... or just no testing at all or no followup in other cases...and Lord Coe tells us he doesn't know ANYTHING about any of this while he has been vice-president under Lamine Diack for like eight years.... and he calls Ashenden "a so-called expert--Give me a break"...
I say give us.... the people who value integrity and honesty...give us a break... from this perpetual game of How to win in track and field by cheating, which has been going strong for over 40 years... and shows no signs of slowing down any time soon....
To infinity and beyond........
No... Gary!
fred wrote:
larkimm wrote:[quote]fred wrote:
. With the info I've given on this thread it wouldn't be hard to work out who I am in the real world!
.
Steve Cram ?
Autologous Madness wrote:
No... Gary!
fred wrote:Steve Cram ?
I seriously hope none of your work for any of the security services, or the U.S. intelligence agencies are screwed!
Oh my! Autologous is back on our thread!...
Did you recently read about how the British government officials were "shocked" about the fact that UKAD was unable to take any action for over 2 years against Dr. Mark Bodnar... who was bragging about treating famous athletes with EPO, anabolic steroids, and HGH in England? The undercover video of Dr. Bodnar was done by people with the ARD documentary group of Hajo Seppelt.
I can imagine by now that IAAF President Lord Sebastian Coe and Hajo Seppelt do not get together very often any more for Sunday brunch...like in the good old days!
Was the "plausible explanation" for Mo Farah missing his doping test before the 2012 Olympics that was given to UKAD... was that Mo Farah could not hear his doorbell?... or was it doorbell ERROR?....
I just can't seem to remember what the "plausible explanation" was that was given by Mo Farah to UKAD back in 2012.
Autologous...you know that weak mind disease can affect your memory.
You can see how poor my memory has become... since my episode of weak mind disease. My mind has definitely become very weak.
..............I know you can see it clearly Autologous Madness....Right?.....
................Go Steve Jones!!!...........Go Jo Pavey!!!....................
The head of UKAD was also caught burying bad news
Then UKAD is charged with fixing the Russian doping problem