Can Rupp Threaten the WR at 5000?

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11 years ago 06/04/2014 4:59pm EDT

re: ventolin^3

ventolin^3 wrote:
i must admit i'm disappointed here in the "conservative" thinking of many guys here, which is surprising for a supposed "young crowd"
i'm far from being a youngster & can't understand such timid thinking as maybe 12'50, or perhaps even 12'45 - 12'47 for the boldest predictions here
i'm of the age group supposed to have timid predictions not majority of guys here !
this same timid thinking that predicted mo-3'28 & 6 guys 12'46/12'49
at his peak this year, Rupp shoud have ~ one of these lines of fit :
51.1 / 1'47.6 ->
3'31.0
4'46.9
7'22.2
12'41.8
26'31.0
or
50.7 / 1'47.0 ->
3'30.2
4'46.1
7'21.3
12'41.3
26'32.6
or
50.2 / 1'46.2 ->
3'29.0
4'44.7
7'19.8
12'39.6
26'31.7
an experienced eye tends me in direction of last set of estimates
if he gets an ~ perfect race this year, Rupp has a serious shot at 7'20 & 12'40
people stop this timid thinking !

Why not use times he has run for 5000 and 10000 (since he just ran the fastest time he has ever run for 10k) and then predict his 800 and 400?

Rather than make up times that he will never run for 5k and 10 based off times you don't know are his best for 400/800?

I know you know something about track and field and times, so how is it that you think you can pull 400/800 times out of thin air for people?

You don't know that Rupp's bests for 400/800 are 50-point 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

11 years ago 06/04/2014 5:00pm EDT

re: Fritters

Ventolins calculator is very accurate if you use an under and upperdistance to predict a distance in between.

Give me your 1500m PB or ability and your 10000m PB or ability. I will predict your 5000m ability.

11 years ago 06/04/2014 5:10pm EDT

re: USA Golds

He can definitely break the WR in a 5 x 1000 PRW on a low pollen-count day.

11 years ago 06/04/2014 5:11pm EDT

re: ttc

ttc wrote:Rupp's a 3:50 miler, but not as good as BK was in the 3K. BK was *consistently* 7:30-7:31. Point being, Rupp should be a *great* 5K'er on paper. Maybe the 3K fitness needs improving. 3K Fitness-wise only, BK's was much better- so it's attainable.

jesus, give me a break

if you asked BK, magnanimous guy he seemed, what Rupp coud do to his 7'30/7'31s, i'd bet my bottom $ he'd say ~

crush them into utter oblivion

let me ask you this :

how many 3'30/3'31s did mo need to run to prepare for a 3'28 ???

how many 12'50/12'52s did those young gebs need to run to prepare themselves for 12'46/12'47 ???

geb2 went :

12'59

12'53

12'46 !!!

geb3 went :

13'11pb

12'58pb

12'47pb !!!

11 years ago 06/04/2014 5:29pm EDT

re: newname

newname wrote:Why not use times he has run for 5000 and 10000 (since he just ran the fastest time he has ever run for 10k) and then predict his 800 and 400?

because his 5k time is utter drivel for indicator of true 5k ability

see progression of the 2 young gebs for when they finally got a 1/2 decent 5k

Rather than make up times that he will never run for 5k and 10 based off times you don't know are his best for 400/800?

fool

you try different 400/800 combos which gives nearest longer distance results upto optimal race distance for athlete, as every distance guy has a finite best possible 400 & 800 on any given day

try & grasp this basic concept

I know you know something about track and field and times, so how is it that you think you can pull 400/800 times out of thin air for people?

it's easy

have 40+y of observatioal experience & more importantly, have at least 1/2 a brain & about 1'39.9 to spend trying some different combos on a calculator

You don't know that Rupp's bests for 400/800 are 50-point

what part of 50.8+ for mo's kick in a slow 5k your peabrain not remember allied to Sal's comment that the boyz have comparable speed ???

11 years ago 06/04/2014 5:56pm EDT

re: defender of Ventolin

defender of Ventolin wrote:Ventolins calculator is very accurate if you use an under and upperdistance to predict a distance in between.
Give me your 1500m PB or ability and your 10000m PB or ability. I will predict your 5000m ability.

That does need qualifying

You might have coupla 3'30 guys, one with a solid 27'30PB & one with a nonsense 29'00PB

The 5k estimates will not be accurate for either as both were presumably running 10k off primary 1500 training, just that one was lot better endurance-wise

Much better to spend a coupla minutes effort to try different 400/800 combos to get a line of fit & stop at best race distance

e.g. for Hicham in '98 : maybe

47.4 / 1'42.5 ->

2'11.3

3'25.3

7'19.5

12'47.9

27'12.0

He certainly could have smashed the p!ss-weak 1k WR on that 1500WR day

( Noah was good for 2'10-mid if he'd rested for Rieti & had "perfect" race )

His 1500WR with a 53.2 finish has to be considered 3'25-low at even pace

However, I doubt he would have cracked 7'21 or 12'52/12'53 let alone 27'20 that day off his "purely" 1500 training

You stop at "best" race distance, but always look for 400/800 line of fits as the guy's

"DNA"

11 years ago 06/04/2014 6:43pm EDT

re: ventolin^3

canova's pet : cherono

he whupped hicham in that guy's 12'50pb & crushed him in home stretch after a jog in 4th km where hicham got terrified some kenyan was on his shoulder & slowed to a crawl to try to blast him on last lap

cherono blew him away in last 100m

13'11pb

12'48pb !!!

11 years ago 06/04/2014 7:24pm EDT

re: ventolin^3

Never bet against Ventolin'3 calculator

Ventolin'3 is a legend , we are really lucky to have him post on these boards

long live the chief

11 years ago 06/04/2014 8:14pm EDT

re: tony the tiger

Venty's lines of fit are interesting, but Rupp is not going to break 7:20 or the 5,000 WR as per the subject of his thread. That's delusional.

11 years ago 06/04/2014 8:15pm EDT

re: Sagarin

11 years ago 06/04/2014 9:19pm EDT

re: More Obvious

More Obvious wrote:- do you see Rupp capable of ~ 26'30 at season peak ?
Your calculator is drunk

moron

quite clearly you didn't see race nor coach's interview

- do you see Rupp capable of 3'29/3'30 at season peak ?
Your calculator is extra-drunk.

idiot

what's his training partner's pb ???

how much did he beat him by at oxy '12 ???

11 years ago 06/04/2014 9:21pm EDT

re: Sagarin

Sagarin wrote:
Venty's lines of fit are interesting, but Rupp is not going to break 7:20 or the 5,000 WR as per the subject of his thread. That's delusional.

Nor is Vent saying Rupp will, he's simply making an argument about why Rupp could take a rip at the 3000m WR. And since it's very unlikely Rupp will actually make a serious record attempt, we're never going to know. And we just have to live with that.

On the other hand, I think it's time to start the letter writing campaign: Alberto - turn Galen loose on Geb's hour run record! 21,400 in 60 minutes - Galen's ready to crack the magic 53.5 barrier! [and yes, I'm joking about 53.5 laps being in any way magical.] Galen Rupp breaking a Geb record. Wouldn't that be cool? [yes, yes - a 2nd tier record Geb set when he was 34, but still...]

11 years ago 06/04/2014 9:51pm EDT

re: Fritters

Fritters wrote:Just No

eh ?

Rupp is very very good and will continue to impress. He may even win some world championship or olympic golds with the combo of his ability to maintain fast pace and also to kick harder than most

so what is flat-out 1500/3k/5k/10k ?

But he isn't Bekele, he isn't Geb, and he isn't Komen

i don't see any of them with 3'50i

Rupp's top end will likely be somewhere along the same lines as Sileshi Sihine (Although lets hope that doesn't make him Mr. Silver 2.0). ~12:47 for 5k

drivel

ethiopian's mile pb ?

I'd even be willing to say he could run faster than Sihine's 10k PR (26:39.69)

ethiopian ran flat-out to attempt to make team

Rupp crushed field in uninterested effort

You're "math" results assume a tremendous amount of improvement over Rupp's current bests

get a clue

they only assume similar speed to his training partner

3'28 guy

If Rupp was a college age runner just starting out on the professional circuit then maybe that degree of improvement would be conceivable. Rupp is 28 and likely coming to the peak of his running ability right now.

nonsense

how ole was training partner when going from 3'33 to 3'28 ?

11 years ago 06/04/2014 10:05pm EDT

re: Sagarin

Sagarin wrote:Venty's lines of fit are interesting, but Rupp is not going to break 7:20 or the 5,000 WR as per the subject of his thread. That's delusional.

unknown offerings are no interest

no one said Rupp was going to break 7'20 or 5k wr

it's suggested only, that he coud approach former

any other interpretations are moronic

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