Derrick has somewhat of a home advantage with the race being not too far from where he grew up and he has gained a lot of confidence this year competing with the big boys and beating Ritz twice. I would not be surprised to see him win, especially as Rupp might try to save something for the 5,000 in a couple of days.
Also, the weather is not optimal for Rupp, because of temps, plus pollen issues. I don't expect him to give it his all in either race, or to care about winning these races. There are bigger races coming, those are the end goal.
And the weather... wrote:
Also, the weather is not optimal for Rupp, because of temps, plus pollen issues. I don't expect him to give it his all in either race, or to care about winning these races. There are bigger races coming, those are the end goal.
Still 85/56 at 730 local. Not looking good at all.
Desperately need a sudden cloudburst to drop the temps by 12 degrees and make it tolerable, but it doesn't look like that's in the cards.
Unfortunately, it may be slower and uglier than I was hoping for.
84/58/86 ('Real-feel')/67(dewpoint)
as the ladies head out.
Downright mugly. Nobody getting an 'A' tonight.
What the hell was Jordan thinking, going out with the big 2??
Terrible mistake.
Rupp, Curtis, derrick
sp23 wrote:
What the hell was Jordan thinking, going out with the big 2??
Terrible mistake.
She beat one of the big two idiot. Also wrong thread
haha wrote:
sp23 wrote:What the hell was Jordan thinking, going out with the big 2??
Terrible mistake.
She beat one of the big two idiot. Also wrong thread
She ran great.
It was still incredibly dumb to go out at 75 pace, and she was lucky to get away with it.
Kara was even dumber.
Sorry if that's too tough for you to grasp.
who called it two days ago? Ahem...
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I can't believe the lack of Ritz love. The dude looked the best of all at Pre, is rounding into the best shape of his life, can likely close under 60 with his speed,is maintaining his marathon strength, and will be stronger than Derrick or True without a doubt over 10k. He is likely ready for a low 27 right now, and will start pushing way out with Rupp. Hot day or not, it is going to be Rupp, Ritz and a Dogfight in the heat between Derrick and True...edge to Derrick in the heat.
Ritz will blitz wrote:
who called it two days ago? Ahem...
------
I can't believe the lack of Ritz love. The dude looked the best of all at Pre, is rounding into the best shape of his life, can likely close under 60 with his speed,is maintaining his marathon strength, and will be stronger than Derrick or True without a doubt over 10k. He is likely ready for a low 27 right now, and will start pushing way out with Rupp. Hot day or not, it is going to be Rupp, Ritz and a Dogfight in the heat between Derrick and True...edge to Derrick in the heat.
I think most of us figured it would be Rupp, Derrick, and Ritz in some combination, with the possibility of an outlier performance, though the conditions put a damper on that. I'm a bit surprised Rupp didn't just jog in with the 5,000 heats coming up, and I'm also surprised Derrick didn't tuck into the pack early on as he has great 1,500 speed. True simply is not proven over 10,000 in championship track races. Ritz does look great, but Rupp still owns him.
Well said. And of course one can't expect Ritz to beat Rupp when it turns out to be a 2200 meter race. But that Ritz looked smooth for six laps and outkicked Derrick is encouraging for Worlds. Indeed, I expect they will all do well in Moscow. I wonder if Rupp and Ritz will now have to workout.
Sagarin wrote:
Ritz will blitz wrote:who called it two days ago? Ahem...
------
I can't believe the lack of Ritz love. The dude looked the best of all at Pre, is rounding into the best shape of his life, can likely close under 60 with his speed,is maintaining his marathon strength, and will be stronger than Derrick or True without a doubt over 10k. He is likely ready for a low 27 right now, and will start pushing way out with Rupp. Hot day or not, it is going to be Rupp, Ritz and a Dogfight in the heat between Derrick and True...edge to Derrick in the heat.
I think most of us figured it would be Rupp, Derrick, and Ritz in some combination, with the possibility of an outlier performance, though the conditions put a damper on that. I'm a bit surprised Rupp didn't just jog in with the 5,000 heats coming up, and I'm also surprised Derrick didn't tuck into the pack early on as he has great 1,500 speed. True simply is not proven over 10,000 in championship track races. Ritz does look great, but Rupp still owns him.
Montesquieu wrote:
I wrote what's below on another thread. I wrote it when it appeared that the weather would be better, but I stick to it even now. I think Ritz will win it, but surely be right there for second behind Rupp at worst. It's worth noting, especially with Teg now in the race for real, that there is a genuine dislike between Salazar and Schumacher, and thus a desire on the part of each to have his runners best those of the other. Salazar would like nothing better than to have both Rupp and Ritz make the team ahead of Derrick and Teg, and vice-versa. Add Puskedra to the mix as someone who might help carry the early pace, and add the fact that with the hotter conditions we might have a sharply fluctuating pace, with surges here and there, and the race promises to be extremely exciting.
Pretty good call as usual. I am happy for Ritz as I think this will be his last WC team on the track, and I'm glad he didn't leave it up to a 600 meter race.
sp23 wrote:
What the hell was Jordan thinking, going out with the big 2??
Terrible mistake.
Why was that a mistake? She beat one of them. Would she have also beat Shalane as well if she held back a little? Please give us more tidbits from your fountain of running tactic knowledge. You seem to know so much.
I hate to brag, especially since I have no written proof to back it up, but this race played out exactly how I expected in almost every facet. I expected Ritz to take the lead and push it with about 4-6 laps remaining, and Rupp and Derrick would be the only ones who could cover it. Then Rupp opens up a can on the final lap, of course. Ritz outlasts Derrick by a fairly comfortable margin. The only thing I got wrong was True's 4th place finish. I figured he was the 4th best runner in the field, but I assumed he would pack it in in the final lap or so once he realized he wasn't gonna make the team, and then get out-kicked by a couple of guys running for pride.
sp23 wrote:
Right. Derrick has a shot, but Ritz and True have NONE.
Because, umm, they've all got essentially identical performances so far this year.
Figures we had to get at least one more idiotic comment into the thread before race-time.
This guy! Hilarious. Amazing reading comprehension. I said, "I'm rooting for Derrick to make it over Ritz and True. He definitely has the most potential to be our best chance for a 10k medal after Rupp in the next Olympics, and this WC experience would be invaluable.
I like Ritz and True, but there's no way they have a shot at 10k medals..."
Meaning, while Derrick, Ritz and True are fairly close at this point, none of them really have much have a chance for a medal this summer. But in 2015 and 2016 Derrick will be in his prime and will HOPEFULLY be a medal contender by then. I don't see that for Ritz or True on the track. Marathon, perhaps another story.
Rupp looks to be back in his indoor season form. Within 200m he gapped them as if they were standing still, then coasted in, saving as much energy as possible for the 5000. I hope to see that race have more than a pack of three with three laps to go.
Ahh, so close to being 100% right. I was obviously right about True having no chance, and just narrowly missed out on having him get caught by Braun (who ran a faster last lap).
Braun is used to dry, CO weather, though he trains in Flagstaff, also dry. He may have been a different story in better conditions as he is fit. Reallt thrilled for Derrick too. Young, solid, and consistent. The future.
ooooops wrote:
sp23 wrote:What the hell was Jordan thinking, going out with the big 2??
Terrible mistake.
Why was that a mistake? She beat one of them. Would she have also beat Shalane as well if she held back a little? Please give us more tidbits from your fountain of running tactic knowledge. You seem to know so much.
Pal, if you're honestly too stupid to understand why going out at 72/74, or roughly 30:30 pace, on a brutally hot and gusty night, when your PR is 32-plus, and your goal is to beat the third and fourth girls, who expect to be running mid-31 in *ideal* conditions, when you've run the distance exactly twice in your life, have little idea what you're doing, and already crashed pretty badly on a less-warm night a few weeks ago, was a *terrible* error in judgment... if you're honestly THAT stupid, I really don't think I can help you.
I'll give you a couple of hints, and then you're on your own.
1. Look at Kara Goucher. Did you see what happened in her race tonight? THAT's why it was a terrible error in judgment.
2. Watch Kara's interview, in which she repeats, over and over, how stupid it was of her to go out so fast, how stupid she feels at having thrown away her spot on the team, how dumb she was for neglecting the effect of the weather, and how pissed off she is (she doesn't quite come out in say it in so many words, but it's pretty damn obvious) at her stupid coach for telling her to go out with Shalane at such an asinine pace, regardless of the weather.
SHE clearly gets it now, even if you're just too feeble-minded.
3. Watch Jordan's interview, in which SHE also clearly states that it was a dumb mistake to go out so fast, and she only did it by accident, and she was embarrassed at having made such a dumb mistake, and she was grateful that she felt as strong as she did anyway, and got away with it.
After you've done all that, reflect for a while, and see if you can't try and make yourself into a slightly less moronic individual.
It'll be good for you, and great for the people around you.
Then sit down, and shut your mouth, until such a time as you have something worthwhile to say. (I'm guessing it might be a while.)
I'm done educating imbeciles for the week.
Good luck.
Nominate this guy to represent Letsrun.com in all our misanthropic charm as a guest TV commentator for the rest of the meet.
sp23 wrote:
Ritz will blitz wrote:I can't believe the lack of Ritz love. The dude looked the best of all at Pre, is rounding into the best shape of his life, can likely close under 60 with his speed,is maintaining his marathon strength, and will be stronger than Derrick or True without a doubt over 10k. He is likely ready for a low 27 right now, and will start pushing way out with Rupp. Hot day or not, it is going to be Rupp, Ritz and a Dogfight in the heat between Derrick and True...edge to Derrick in the heat.
Yeah, there are a lot of really dumb guys on this thread.
I don't know if Ritzie will get there (and neither does anybody else here), but most of the 'analysis' here is just painfully dumb.
The guys who think Rupp is as likely to miss as anyone else have apparently been asleep since 2010.
The boneheads who 'know' that Ritz has no shot because the race will 'obviously' be a slow, tactical affair apparently can't grasp the fact that Ritz and Al most likely considered that problem a very long time ago (and they also apparently missed the Trials race last year).
It hasn't quite occurred to them that there's an obvious solution to that problem, and that the presence of teammate Rupp makes it much easier to address it. (And, again, they apparently failed to watch the Trials race last year.)
The idiots bashing True apparently haven't watched a single one of his races this year.
Anyone who's actually paid attention for the last six months --and has an IQ over 90-- knows several things:
1. Rupp is still the prohibitive favorite --unless he's off his game. It's true that his last two races haven't looked as dominant (though they certainly didn't look *bad*), but absent any particular knowledge of injury problems, or missed training, or sickness, or whatever, the obvious default assumption is still that he's capable of 20 seconds faster than the other three.
2. All recent evidence is that all three of the others are in very similar shape right now.
We have to judge that mostly from their recent 5K performances, and those indicate near-identical fitness for all three. We just saw Chris and Ritz run 13:08-13:09.
Those who say True is clearly a step behind, with a 13:14 best, don't know what they're talking about.
If you watched the Adidas race on Randall's Island, you know it was worth a LOT better than 13:16.
All the milers thought the wind cost them two seconds or so; how much did it cost the 10K guys?
True's 13:16 would've easily been 6 or 8 or 10 seconds faster in a mild wind.
That race was every bit as good as Chris and Ritz's races at Pre, maybe a little better.
3. We are forced to deduce their relative fitness at 10K, since we haven't seen them run the longer race for some time.
In some cases, we might have reason to think that 10K fitness could be notably better, or notably worse, than for 5.
In this case, we have no reasons to think that about any of the three guys in question.
With Ritzie, we know that he's coming off a big block of marathon training (and headed right back there in short order), and that he's always considered himself a better 10K guy.
Though he's looked great at 5K, we probably should assume, if anything, he's likely to be slightly better at 10 right now.
With Derrick and True, we've got guys with impressive mile-chops, but again guys who both have said repeatedly they consider themselves stronger at 10K, and both guys who ran great at 12K in XC a couple months back.
All three guys looked capable of 13:05-ish, on a really good day, a few weeks ago.
All three, as far as we know, have continued to train, and probably started to taper a bit, in the last few weeks, and are looking very confident.
All three seem likely to be just as fit, or possibly slightly better, at 10 than they are at 5.
Best guess is that all three could go 27:20-ish, or even a little bit better, on a real good day right now.
4. It's freaking OBVIOUS that both Chris and True have notably better closing speed than Ritz. (Those who say True lacks it really are morons. Did you guys even bother to *watch* that mile race last month? The guy *jogged* to a 3:40, and blew away the field with a 54 close, and wasn't even breathing hard. Gimme a break, already.)
5. News Flash! Ritzie KNOWS he can't close as fast as the other two. Salazar knows it too.
Ritzie might show some questionable judgment at times, but he's not a MORON. Regardless of what you may feel about AlSal, HE is clearly not a MORON.
They will obviously attempt to neutralize this disadvantage, most likely by pushing the pace.
In a 28:30 race, Ritzie will probably be blown away by the other two on the last lap. In a 27:15 race, their closing speed may fail them.
6. The pieces are all conveniently arranged for Ritzie to get exactly the race he needs. He's got Rupp to help him along, and share the work, and Rupp probably won't be terribly averse, since he expects to have to run a pretty fast race anyway (and knows that any pace they run will most likely be quite a bit more comfortable for him than for any of the others anyway).
He's also got Puskedra along, who may also be called on to offer some help (though it makes far less sense for him), as he did in the Trials last year.
(For the third time, did some of you geniuses just close your eyes during that race, or what?)
The guys who keep saying "it'll be a slow race, because, well, umm, ya know, Championship races tend to be slow" must've really been sleeping through Logic 101.
Use your brains a little, instead of just repeating stupid cliches.
All the evidence says that Ritzie *needs* a fast race, and has the circumstances in place that perfectly enable him to create it.
Do we *know* that's what'll happen? Of course not. Nobody ever knows for sure what'll happen in a race, and lots of strange things can occur.
But all the circumstances, and a little common sense, point to some obvious expectations.
If no one else wants to run fast, Ritzie and Rupp will probably cooperate to push it (maybe with a little help from Big Luke).
How fast they're likely to make it is tough to say.
Obviously, the weather may be a factor.
Yesterday, the forecast looked fairly benign; now, it's a little worse. Right now I'm seeing 76 and fairly humid, with a chance of thunderstorms, and some wind.
Probably uncomfortable enough to slow things down a bit, but maybe not enough to radically affect the race. (And, again, what's with the idiotic comments that 'we know Ritz can't handle the heat?' We do? Did any of you pinheads watch the Olympics in Beijing?)
Maybe the weather means that 13:40 or :45 is enough to take people out of their comfort zone, rather than 13:30.
So what? Same race, same plan, just a little slower.
If you're using your head, you're looking for Rupp and Ritz to push the pace, Chris and True to sit on them as long as possible.
Rupp and Ritz will hope to break the other two, and gap them, somewhere in the last 2K.
Rupp'll probably manage to ease away at some point, and Ritz will try his best. Can he drop the two younger guys? I have no idea. I'd give him slightly better than even odds, but it's an awfully tough call.
I see the four of them together, broken away from the rest of the field, at 8K.
From there on, most likely, a modest gap for Rupp, and a full-on Pre-style death march for the other three.
Some surges, some back-and-forth, and a hell of a lot of pain.
Three (assuming Rupp's on his form, and he gets away) really good, really determined, really tough, hard-working, dedicated, admirable guys, going hell bent for leather to nab two spots.
It'll be sad to see one of 'em lose.
If it plays out anything close to how it should, this will be a fantastic race.
*This* is why I love distance running.
___
ahem. After calling a lot of people idiots and saying they aren't using their heads...you gots to do some backtracking.
You insisted the race would be a fast one, but it was about as slow as conceivably possible. (13:40 pace? How about 15:00?) Yes, weather 'radically affected the race. No, Ritz and Rupp did not push the pace. No, there was no death march - the top 3 were outstanding the last mile but Rupp opened a can on the last lap.
I dunno man - I like the way you wrote this, but when you call people idiots and then you get things very wrong...you got to ask who is the idiot.