WSOP, bad beats, great hands

If you are playing a lot online, then Pokertracker or one of the other tracking softwares is a must. It will do all the calculations that Malmo's spread sheet covers. If you are not keeping track, then make it your New Year's resolution, keep track of every session. TRack your poker just like you keep a running log.

In poker, just as in life, the more you know, the less you know.

I would also call Jennifer Harmon's beat in WSOP this year a bad beat: full house vs gut shot straight flush on river. Oliver Hudson's 1st hand: 10-10 vs Farha's A-10, flop: AA10, good game Oliver, 10K out in first hand.

Bad beats have to start with good cards. A9 in a multiway pot can't qualify;ace rag = ace rag, no matter what the pot odds are.

Bad beats/suckouts will always happen to good players because good players usually put their money in with the best cards, so the only way to lose is when you get sucked out on.

Where is that "aces get cracked 15% of the time" stat from?

Brian

Malmo, my email adresss is

mcall@pgppdx.com

thanks

bfullem wrote:

Where is that "aces get cracked 15% of the time" stat from?

Brian

That would be heads up before the flop. Aces win 85.3 percent of the time.

Hey Malmo,

dmbfan21@comcast.net

Thanks!

brutal woodshed beating wrote:

worst I've seen was on TV a year ago, so maybe some of you saw it also.

KK goes up against A5. Don't remember the betting, but it was pretty big. Flop is K77, so there is a full house to start with. Turn card is another 7. The A5 guy goes all-in as a bluff and is obviously called. The river card is the 4th 7, so the five community cards are K7777. So A5 wins with the better kicker b/c KK can only use one of his kings.

that was danny nguyen at the wpt bay 101 shooting stars event... the truest of all bad beats: 989-to-1 to make runner-runner quads... if you play long enough, it'll happen to you too (i know it's happened to me)...

malmo wrote:

MGM wrote:

No. But on that instance. I had 98%. That is without a doubt a suck out.

Show me your calculations?

malmo is right, the chick had two outs on the turn and river, so you were more like 92% to win (varies slightly based on suits; e.g., if one of you has backdoor flush potential)...

hey fullem, i thought you only posted on pocketfives now... you busted me one time pretty deep in the nightly dise 30R+A...

Anyone have any advice on how to get started playing poker online. I've messed around a little playing with friends a few times.

bfullem wrote:

It will do all the calculations that Malmo's spread sheet covers. If you are not keeping track, then make it your New Year's resolution, keep track of every session. TRack your poker just like you keep a running log.

Poker Tracker does none of what my spreadsheet does. I take data mined from Poker Office and load it into my spreadsheet, which delivers all sorts of archane an trivial stats and graphs. In short, it tell me what I already know. Weeeeeee!

Unless Poker Tracker has improved in the last year, I'd say it's worthless. You have to request emails every 100 hands,a cut/paste to enter data in it.

I use Poker Office. Costs twice as much, but worth it. Poker Office drops text files directly to whatever folder in your computer you choose. You can load the data into your database engine while you are playing, or at the end of your session. If you want dynamic stats while you are playing, it will crunch the data live as you are playing. Live tracker only works with four tables or less.

2 outs. I have A9. She has K9

The Flop is: AK9 rainbow

pre-turn % = 91.6%

after the turn was a 2...I was 95.5% favorite. So no, I wasn't 98%. But yes, it was a bad beat. She had a little over 4% to catch 2 cards in the deck, with 1 card coming.

xxx wrote:

malmo is right, the chick had two outs on the turn and river, so you were more like 92% to win (varies slightly based on suits; e.g., if one of you has backdoor flush potential)...

Just to make sure MGM has his calculations right lets walk through this. I'm making the presumption that both players were unsuited and it was a rainbow flop. Therefore no flushes are possible.

A9 vs K9 FLOP = AK9

The K9 can only win if a K comes on the board in either of the two draws.

TURN the chance of drawing a K is 4.26% (2/47)

RIVER the chance of drawing a K is 4.35% (2/46)

We can calculate what the chance of hitting both Kings on two draws

2/47 x 2/46 = 4/2162 = 0.0019% or 2 out of a 1000 tries.

But that's overkill, we only need to determine the chance that a king falls on EITHER the first or second draw.

Hmmmm... Don't know how to figure that one out, but I do know how to calculate the chance of missing on BOTH draws, so the compliment of that must be the chance I'd hit a King once or twice.

45/47 x 44/46 = 1980/2162 = 91.58%

so 100 - 91.54 = 8.42%

That answer is not quite right. Close enough for government work anyway. Why?

If a King falls, A9 can still win if an Ace falls.

The chance that both an Ace and a King will fall is

0.0842 x 0.0842 = 0.0071

so the chance that a King will fall without an Ace falling is

8.42% - 0.71% = 7.71%

Interesting way to calculate the odds. But you can simply check by going to cardplayer.com and put in the exact cards and number of hands being played. After the turn (2 of clubs), the % that I would win stands at 95.5%. After the flop, I was at 92%.

We've said the same thing, I just illustrated how the calculations were made.

malmo

I only use Pokertracker because Pokeroffice is not compatible with Paradise, my usual site.

xxx: how deep? what is your handle on there?

Malmo has forgotten more about poker than I will ever know, i was just offering my opinions, don't take me as an expert. Luckily I have a day job.

BF

bfullem wrote:

Malmo has forgotten more about poker than I will ever know, i was just offering my opinions, don't take me as an expert. Luckily I have a day job.

BF

Nonsense Brian, you're long past "Rookie-of-the-year" Your a card-carrying journeyman in the UPPU (United Poker Players Union)

the way I am running with the cards they might yank my card. Cold decked and getting sucked out on for 6 weeks.

Happy New Year

BF

Got knocked out of my local tourney on Monday night when I (already very short-stacked) went all-in with QQ after a small-card flop. One caller who had 9 7 and no pairs drew out 9 7 for turn and river, respectively. Not really a bad beat, but losing to runner-runner is annoying.

The bad beat of the night was the guy who had 8 8 and flopped J J 8. He bet pretty big, but one guy stayed in with him. He went all-in after the turn, and the last two cards were 4 4. The other dude flipped up 4 4 for four-of-a-kind.

Individual bad beats can be expected...however, my friend has experienced the following string of horrible luck in poker the last 6 months. He plays occassionally, and here are some of his stats over the past 6 months.

- 75 consecutive pocket pairs without hitting trips. Recently on pocket pair 76 he hit trips, and lost to a runner-runner straight draw.

- Has consistantly hit 20% of his flopped straight draws and flush draws. He told me this % and I had a hard time believing him. Then I played a lot of online poker with him and that 20% clip continued in the two weeks when we played at the same table.

- A couple weeks ago he played online and lost 117 consecutive hands, won the blinds from an early position raise on hand 118, then quit after losing the rest of the hands to 140.

- After losing all those hands he quit playing for a month. This past weekend he won $100 playing slots at a casino so he decided to give no-limit hold em a try once again. He tossed hand 1 - 10, and on hand 11 was dealt pocket aces in the big blind. He raised and 4 others called. Flop came out A-4-4. On the river, he and another player went all in, and the other guy flips over pocket 4's. To top it off, that was the 7th consecutive time losing with pocket aces.

My friend is absolutely cursed when it comes to poker!

One other note on long shots...I once won 23 hands in a row playing Spanish 21 in Vegas. Spanish 21 is almost identical to blackjack except there are no 10s in the deck (only J, Q, K) but you can double down at any point in the hand. So my overall odds of winning are slightly reduced. I calculate that was about a 1 in 20 million occurence.