Bolt vs Bekele in a 600m

It was mentioned in an earlier post that sprinters will slow exponentially as they get beyond their distance preferences. This is true.

What is also true, however-- though, as another poster noted, facts like these might not be popular truths given the long-distance slant of this board-- is that distance runners' performances fall off sharply when they reduce to 800/1500/mile and, especially, sprints. If you have the slow-twitch capacity to be the WR holder at 10k, there's no way that you will have the fast-twitch power to be a top half-miler, never mind trying 600m.

Bekele has never broken 3:32 for 1500m. With specific training, I think it's fair to say that he could get down to 3:30, but that's about it.

Bekele's 24.5 final 200m was at the end of a race, yes, but it was also accomplished with a flying start, not reacting to a gun from a dead standstill. And let's face it, El Guerrouj went past him without any real trouble in that 2004 race. El G was throwing his arms in the air in celebration before the finish line. The assertion that it was only one stride length difference at the finish is false; it was a full two strides. There's no comparison in terms of basic speed, and El G was a 47 400m runner (there's a reason why his secondary event was the 5000 and not the 800).

Renato Canova, who knows a thing or two about running, once posted that he didn't think that Bekele could break 50. I'm a little more positive about his speed, but I think 49 is about his limit. 48-high, tops.

Bekele is a great runner; perhaps the most dominant long-distance runner to-date. But he is a distance runner, not a middle-distance runner, and at 600m-- which is the no-man's land between middle-distance and sprint-- he would totally be a fish out of water. Bolt would not relish the added distance but he would have to utterly collapse to lose to Bekele at 600m.

I'm a little more positive about his speed, but I think 49 is about his limit. 48-high, tops

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Well that just agrees with my assessment of his speed. If he has run 3:32 that means he may be a distance runner but with middle distance speed

However El G celebrated on the line 0.20 is not much of a gap for the best middle distance runner in the world to gain over Bekele in a race run 20 secs slower than El G's best

Hicham El Guerrouj, Morocco, 13:14.39. 2. Kenenisa Bekele, Ethiopia, 13:14.59

If there is a 3 second difference on pr's between the 2 at 400, this gap is definitely going to be reduced at the 600m distance

I would love to know what the 2 runners have done in training over this distance. Anyone find anything?

666 wrote:Bekele as good as he is, isn't even the best in terms of speed... at 5000m he has been out kicked by numerous people

I agree with your overall point, but he has been outkicked a handful of times. He has lost two 5k races going back to the Athens Olympics, outkicked once by Isaac Songok, once by Bernard Lagat. Other than those two, it's been El Guerrouj and Eliud Kipchoge. That's four people. Considering the times that he has beat them, I wouldn't say any of them are better kickers except for El Guerrouj.

All of these guy are red hot on a sprint:

Lagat - we know about

Eliud Kipchoge 1500 metres - 3:30.99 min (2004)

Isaac Songok won a gold medal at the 5000m final of the 2003 World Championships, beating runner-up Hicham El Guerrouj by four hundredths of a second, by 12:52.79 and 12:52.83

The gap between El G and Bekele might shrink slightly in % terms from 400 to 600 but nominally it would increase. El G was a 1500-5000 runner, not a sprinter.

Bekele has 3k/two-mile ability but from there he declines, as does any distance runner when the anaerobic requirement starts to kick in significantly (which occurs at supra-VO2 Max speeds). He has the world two-mile record but his 1500 PR is several seconds off of El G's WR.

At 800, it's hard to see him doing better than 1:45; 1:44-high at the absolute outside. That leaves him 3-4 seconds off of the WR. If he's about 5-6 seconds slower than the WR at 400, I think an estimate of 4-5 seconds at 600 is reasonable. The 600 WR is 1:13.2. So Bekele is probably going to run a 1:17-high, give or take slightly.

I don't think that Bolt would need another 33+ seconds to cover those extra 200 metres.

Again, Bekele is a distance runner. Yes, he's outstanding but his performance would still decline substantially at shorter distances.

and Bolt is a sprinter! Still your comments make more sense than most here

Who holds the 600m best & what time do you reckon for Bolt?

I'm pretty sure Bolt could do 1:15, quite possibly 1:14-and-change.

Think about it this way. Bolt's ability as a sprinter is equal to Bekele's distance running ability; that was proven in Beijing. The 600m is a borderline between sprint and middle distance. The energy requirements are far, far closer to a 400m race than a two-mile race. We know that Bolt is an excellent 400m runner; you don't run 45.2 as a 16-year-old unless you've got some serious 400m ability. I have every reason to believe that he could go sub-44 if he concentrated on the 400.

Now how, pray tell, is a distance runner going to beat an outstanding 400m runner in a race that is a borderline sprint? It makes no sense. Rationally, I have no reason to believe that the race would even be close.

Great as he was, El Guerrouj-- a miler who leans longer rather than shorter-- in his prime would've been iffy to beat Bolt in a 600m race; the 400m hops just aren't there. Whereas Kipketer, a pure 800m runner, in his prime would certainly have defeated Bolt at 600m.

powerofreason wrote:

Bekele has never broken 3:32 for 1500m. With specific training, I think it's fair to say that he could get down to 3:30, but that's about it.

i think we should be careful with that statement. Sure, Bekele has never broken 3:32, but he's only run two 1500s in his career. And that one indoor mile. So, he's run 3:32 without even spending very much, if any, specific training on it.

Sorry, I forgot to answer the other part of your question. Johnny Gray holds the world best at 600m-- 1:12.81.

Thinking about it further, I think Bekele could run more like 1:16, rather than 1:17 . But also, I think Bolt would definitely break 1:15 on a good day. I wouldn't even put sub-1:14 past him.

Lookatmemore: Bekele cannot be great at everything. He is, first and foremost, a distance runner. To be a great 10k runner, you have to have a fairly high percentage of slow-twitch muscles. And if you have a lot of slow twitch muscles, you're not going to be a truly top-class 1500m runner. Not even close at 800m. Now imagine a semi-spring like 600m.

Using the different side of the same coin, Bolt could not possibly be a strong 800m runner. He wouldn't be the best 600m runner, either, given that he has brilliant 100m speed. Nobody can do it all. But 600m relates a lot more to 400m than it does to two-miles and longer. And Bolt definitely can run a hot 400.

You know, I've realized that trying to predict exact times only clouds the real issue. Which is, a sprinter with excellent 400m ability (Bolt) is going to tin-can any distance runner at 600m. The logic is pretty straightforward.

Bolt would definitely break 1:15 on a good day. I wouldn't even put sub-1:14 past him

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He's not going to run within 1.18 of the world record at 600m when he is 2 seconds slower than the world record at 400m and he is only going to slow to 600m

Johny Gray was an 800m middle distance runner

As the middle distance guy is tops that means the sprinter and the distance guy are on either side. You can not definitely say one or the other would win it

Forgot to say thanks for looking the stat up

Two seconds slower than the WR at 400m? Are you kidding? He was running 45.2 at age 16!!! Think how much he will have improved since then. It's ridiculous to say that he couldn't break 1:18. Come on. The guy was the world junior 400m champ, and he just broke Michael Johnson's 200m WR. Give me a reason why he wouldn't break 44 seconds if he focussed on the 400.

There's no point in having a discussion if irrationality is going to take over.

I think the answer might be Bekele ftw if he's in prime 5k shape and Bolt's training for the 100/200.

Bolt wins if he's training for the 400. No question. Once he gets down into 43-44 territory, Bolt wouldn't have a chance.

Prime 5k shape!?! Beneficial for a 600m? It makes no sense.

The 600m is a long sprint! It's all about speed and speed endurance. Bekele depends on being efficient enough not to get into a "speed endurance zone." He's a aerobic monster and that's his source of speed. 600m would be a different race for him, totally different. 600m is probably just out of Bolt's range but close enough to bang it out better than Bekele.

He was running 45.2 at age 16!!!

and 45.5 at age 22. These are the facts

He was the world junior 200m champion not 400m

We are not talking about if he focused on 400m we are talking about now. He is not focusing on 400m but clearly the 100 & 200m

Fact - Bekele hasn't run faster than 3:32 for 1500.

Fact - Bekele is clearly better at longer distances.

Fact - 600m running requires a lot of speed.

Fact - Bolt hasn't run faster than 4:32 for 1500.

Fact - Bolt is clearly better at shorter distances.

Fact - 600m running requires a lot of speed endurance.

Additional Fact! - 3.32 makes you an international class middle distance runner

My last comments were actually in reply to the guy who said Bolt could break 1:14 for the 400m. I then said he is not going to come within 1.18 of the world 600m best when he is 2 seconds behind the 400m wr.

I just cannot imagine Bolt losing to Bekele over 600m. If it were a head-to-head race, my guess is Bolt would just wait and kick at the end. If it was two separate time trials (Bolt running in Jamaica and Bekele running in Ethiopia), I am betting Bolt would still win. He's 6'5" and probably the only 100 meter top-end guy ever who could still chase a WR at 400 (think: total anomaly). He even had to convince his own coach last year to run the 100m. That said, I think Bekele would probably win the 800m race between them.