Faith Kipyegon Breaking4 attempt confirmed -will go for sub-4 mile in Paris on June 26th

Won't even be close.

Here's what people are missing.

Nike knows everything we know. The 4:07 PR. The 1500 WR converting to 4:06.5. The fact that this would be the most impressive women's track performance ever. The fact that she's 31. They know all that. And to us, this seems like a suicide mission.

Which means they have to know something we don't. What do they know? I have absolutely zero idea. Maybe they've really done it with the spikes this time. Or maybe she actually is doped to the gills and they found better EPO'S. Or maybe she's already ran 4:02 in a hidden time trial in a similar environment. But they have to know something that we don't that gives this a shot. It's not just a money grab, Nike doesn't embarass their athletes like that.

Also, Kipchoge smashed 2. Like it wasn't THAT close. They knew he could do it. I'm not sure they would have done the challenge if they weren't sure........same applies here.

Should get Jess Hull and Hassan involved. Get all the Nike drug cheats on the track together. Fkn Joke sport. Dirtier than bodybuilding

Should be done on the same cinders track surface wearing the same types of leather spikes that Bannister used in order to be a valid first sub 4. If you have spring loaded spikes and bouncy tracks why not just have a downhill course to try for the sub 4? Is the sport about validating improvements in technology or about measuring improvements in human physical performance?

FYI I asked Kipyegon’s agent Valentijn Trouw whether the event would use male pacers and whether it would be record-eligible. Here’s what he told me:

“The main focus of the breaking4 project is to inspire people to dare to explore what's possible.
The exact set-up of the event is still work in progress.”

Here's a good guess at what they're going to do

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.241564

Reading the study a bit more, it sounds like there's a possibility, but the authors conclude its highly speculative, and there are a lot of variables that they don't have precise values for, like the coefficient of drag. Everything would need to be perfect, from the formation of the pacers, to the space between them, to the body composition of the pacers relative to Kipyegon.
They even consider having Kipyegon run at Penn's Franklin Field, where lane four is exactly 400m, so the pacers could spread out into a "reverse arrowhead" formation.

Doper.

It will be a road mile. They will wait for favorable wind. She will get a running start. I think she can get very close to 4.

So it’s going to be a gimmick. So stupid

Nike is not all-knowing. They make more bad decisions than good decisions these days.

I think most top men would barely hit 3:55 with those conditions. Top women at 4:30.

Correct. And, of course, the first sub-2 attempt failed but was still grand for publicity, and inspired the 2nd, then successful sub-2 attempt. So much for

"Also, Kipchoge smashed 2. Like it wasn't THAT close. They knew he could do it. I'm not sure they would have done the challenge if they weren't sure........same applies here."

Why is nobody talking about the fact that she is going to need the capability of breaking the women's 800m record as well (1:53.2). Which hasn't be touched in decades... She also is going to need at least 51 sec quarter. She definitely has the aerobics to do it but there is no way she has the speed. 4:04flat at best.

Was told that male pacers would absolutely be used.

This is essentially trying to leap frog about 30+ years.

This is with no tech changes during the 30+ years
1923: 4:06.5 — Paavo Nurmi
1945: 4:01.4 — Gunder Hägg - took 22 years to drop 5 seconds
1954: 3:59.4 — Roger Bannister - took 9 years to drop the next 2 seconds

I can't wait for the BREAKING 1:40 and BREAKING 1:50 events

This is a very valid point. Think of a junior athlete that has run 3'49. To break into that next level of 3'40-44, an 800m of 1'51-2 and a 3k of 8'00 is very typical. I suppose we will see in China DL with her 1000m race coming soon. As stated on the other sub4 thread, I think a 2'28-29 would be a very positive thing 8 weeks out from the nike race.

Here is what I'm thinking on how this could be successful. Not only will there be several male pacers in front of her and some crazy new supershoe, but also a vehicle right behind her with a massive fan blowing her forward.

There’s about a 24 second difference between the WRs for men and women, but leathers spikes and a cinders track increases the gap to 35 seconds?

Or it's possible the breaking 2 project created this sense of false belief that things like this will always just work out. I think going in to that first attempt in Monza the brand was extremely nervous that Kipchoge would only run a few seconds under the WR at the time (2.02.57) which would exactly point to a sub 2 at any point given the investment they made. Well they rolled the dice and it worked out big time for them - helped by the fact that Kipchoge was actually kind of fresh in his marathon career (can't say this about FK btw) and ended up becoming the GOAT, Sub 2 or not.

The big thing at play is that Nike is a slightly desperate brand right now - for the first time in a long time. It's no secret they have been slaughtered in the one sport that started it all for them - running, and they need another "breaking" something moment. And when you are desperate, sometimes you convince yourself of some things that are well, a stretch at best.

I agree with you that they would never rationally put themselves or one of their key brand assets up for total embarrassment. What I do think is they have drastically underestimated all the things in the marathon that made a difference and have drastically overestimated the things in a track mile that will make a difference. I think they would also be okay with her running around 4.05 which they could then point to as an indicator of hope/promise/progress towards this which becomes a long term brand marketing play. Cool thing is we are going to find out real soon.