Will Parker Valby run faster than 15:07 for the 2nd half of the 10K in Paris?

The other side of that coin is that Kelati, Battocletti, Schweizer, Ryan, Van Es, and Keith will sit on her.

Well, you know what Prefontaine said about that.

Hopefully there will be an East African or two breaking wind for Valby, leading the second train.

“breaking wind”?

Uhh, that she can draft off of. Maybe some in the second train will fall off, and Valby can sustain.

But it might not behoove Kelati to wait until the bell lap to try and get away from Battocletti, and maybe she will start forcing the pace with 800m to go.

After NIL there's typically a waiting period (90 days or less) during which the athlete cannot contract with a different sponsor. She's probably waiting that out right now. It's an interesting gamble. We might be at peak $albymania right now. If she bombs in Paris (say 31.xx, adjusted for temperature) then it might have been a mistake to wait. I don't know what it would take to shock everyone on the positive side (how about 30 low, adjusted for temperature).

Question: since she hasn't turned pro and still has college eligibility left, are any good results considered for out of season NCAA records?

It is interesting. In her earlier article, Sarah Lorge said at least Puma and New Balance were interested in her.

Both of those might offer her the opportunity to stay on the East Coast and train (should she want to.) A thing about a collegiate being signed by Nike is that they would likely be expected to go train at the University of Oregon. Seriously, you don’t think that matters to collegiates that bleed their school colors? Do you think Markozich, coming out of Notre Dame, would want to be forced to go get ingrained with the Ducks??

I doubt Pros want to be forced to get ingrained with a school different from their alma-mater, but Nike is probably so blind to the fact, or really doesn’t care about the athletes, in that regard.

Yes. Her times through the end of the year will count on the All-Dates List but not on the In-Season List. Athing Mu had already signed a pro contract but her Olympic performance (August 3) and Prefontaine Classic performance (August 21) are #1 and #2 on the All-Dates List. Valby's 14:51 from the Trials is #1 on the list. Addy Wiley's 3:59 from September counts as did Jessica Hull's 4:01 from October. Had Wiley even run one single collegiate race in 2024, all of her times from 2024 would count toward the All-Dates List even after she turned pro.

"This 'all-dates' list combines all indoor and outdoor marks and from all points on the calendar. Marks from after the collegiate season were made by collegians who used a year of eligibility during the year in question."

Her mile PR is 4:50 but her fastest recorded mile is the end of a 5000m race at sub-4:40. She has already shown she can finish with a strong fast mile; it isn’t a stretch to assume she can do so again, given that it is the Olympics.

Additionally, her splits during 30:50 were 15:30 and 15:20. If the race starts at a crawl closer to 16:00 pace for the first half, it is not unreasonable to consider she may run 14:50 for her second half. She will be in better shape, racing against the best competition in the world.

It’s unlikely, but wouldn’t be crazy.

Time will tell.

Battocletti just might be able to go at least a wee-bit faster than her 14:35 PB. She closed out that Euro Champs 5000m race in 60s. But astonishingly, she had sat on Grovdal for most of the race, and then passed her with ~100m to go, and then blazed away from her, closing the last 100m in less than 13sec!

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There was a thread on Italian doping and Battocletti. I'm sure she's doing what is necessary, like most of the field.

Only on a predominantly American message board can anyone be interested in debating for pages how well will a runner who is almost two minutes slower than the world's best, with no finish, do at the Olympics. So how will another 30:50 also-ran from some minor country do - I'm sure there is one.

Is that a problem, in your eyes? For a country to discuss the potential of the most dominant female athlete in its collegiate system?

Seems pretty rational to me.

Please. Prior to the US Trials, this "country" produced an extensive thread on a steeplechase irrelevancy--Allie Ostrander--and very little discussion on the most dominant American female steeplechaser in its collegiate system--Olivia Markezich.

Seems pretty insipid to me.

Yes because sooper dooper track surface at Paris.

And the pull of all the elites.

Remember Molly Huddle at 2016 Rio setting the AR despite almost being lapped?

Almaz Ayana broke the China-doped WR (everyone lost their minds) but more interesting everyone PR'ed their pants off and many national records set.

To this day EIGHT years later Alicia Monson has only run 10 seconds faster than Molly Huddle despite sooper-shoes now used by all.

Was it the track (one of the first sooper dooper tracks) or the pull?

Who will be the first American woman to go sub-30 in the 10,000m?

It might happen at Paris, it could.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Athletics_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Women%27s_10,000_metres

Link:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_t...

Karissa also ran 30:17(3ish secs off the American record at the time) at Worlds in 2022 and that only got her 9th. If I remember correctly she was with the pack until the last 400-600m and then she was gapped hard.

These championship races are typically like fartleks which I think might hurt Valby because she seems like a rhythm/metronome runner. If she tries to hang on the back of women who are 1-2 mins faster than her already surging, she might blow up. But we haven’t see her try it so maybe not!

In my opinion, if they are running 30:00-30:20 pace, her best bet is to run her own race and collect the people who fall off the main pack.

But you post incessantly about it!

Letsrun isn't a country. It covers a sport, without national boundaries.